UDPATE: At today’s Treasury auction – 4-week bills yield 13bps, 52-week bills yield 11.5bps… 1.5bps inverted!
Whether Treasury Secretary Lew’s words were meant to calm and chaosify the markets yesterday, his comments on the debt ceiling have sparked a notable sell-off in ultra-short-dated Treasury Bills. As we noted previously the 2/28 ish date appears to be the market’s bogey for now with the yield more than tripling from 3bps to 11bps in the last 2 days. CDS on the USA has also risen notably in the last few days with the 5Y now trading inverted to the 1Y cost of protection once again.
Major jump in T-Bill yields in the last 2 days as Lew brings back memories of October…
And USA CDS is on the rise (and inverted) once again…
This is what the X-Date projection looks like depending on the best and worst cash in/out scenarios: