We can waste many words to explain today’s absolutely atrocious and recovery killing durable goods report (wait for it… wait for it… it’s the weather’s fault), or we can just show this once chart explaining all that has happened so far in the “recovery.”
Ok fine: here it is in word format:
- Durable goods which in November were said to have risen by 3.5%, were revised lower to 2.6% (we said there was something very fishy with the seasonally adjusted numbers last month). The December number, however, plunged by 4.3%, well below the expected 1.8%, and a paltry 0.1% increase Y/Y. Any time the Y/Y series is consistently negative, there is a recession. Of note: the durable goods orders for computers and electronics was at the lowest level since December 1993. We know… we know… Nobody orders computers when it is cold outside.
- Durable goods ex transports plunged 1.6%, on expectations of a 0.5% increase, and the November print also was revised lower from 1.2% to 0.1%.
The more important core CapEx numbers, which are always said to be just around the corner but never actually appear, were evern worse:
Cap Goods orders nondefense ex aircraft plunged from 4.5% to -1.3% on expectations of a 0.3% increase. This despite the November revision lower to 2.6%.
Cap goods shipments nondefense ex aircraft also tumbled from 2.3% to -0.2%, on expectations of a 0.1% increase. November also was revised lower from 2.8% to 2.3%.
So much for Tapering into strength. And now we look forward to the Fed saying what it meant when it said “data dependent” was really “snow in the cold winter” data dependent…