Surprise! For the 3rd time in the last 20 years, homebuilder sentiment got way ahead of reality… and as the February NAHB data shows, reality is starting to catch up to them. The NAHB sentiment index crashed by its most on record in Feb, missed expectations by its most on record, and fell back below the crucial 50-level, as it starts to play cyclical catch-down to home sales and mortgage apps. Think it’s the weather? nope…It’s across every region (with The West dropping the most on record – hot dry weather?)
Yet again hope fades…
Biggest miss and biggest drop on record….
A 10-sigma wobble!!!!