The curse of the over-bearish (or over-bullish) magazine cover is well known. Of course, the media will only cherry-pick the “lows” as an indication that it’s time to buy; as opposed to the exuberance-exhibiting article writers and their glaring headlines. To wit, this week’s Barron’s cover proclaims “GOOD NEWS – The US economy could grow this year at 4%… Forget the snow, consumers and businesses are ready to spend.” Hhmm, it seems that Barron’s forgot to look at the data…
The reality (hope is fading fast and even the optimistic out-months aren’t anywhere near 4%!!)
Simply put, that is not the kind of “growth” and “consumption” needed to cover the massive inventory build
and so once again – thanks to Federal Reserve intervention – managers
have been ‘fooled’ into believing in the future sustainability, have mal-invested, and next comes another stagnation (and the cyclical downturn that we noted here).
h/t Bloomberg and @Not_Jim_Cramer