“Treasuries have turned medium term bullish,” writes Macneil Curry in his latest reports, advising traders to “get ready to buy a dip,” in bonds. At a minimum, he notes, BofAML expects yields to test the 2.691% area, but the most likely outcome is for a push to the multi-month range lows between 2.544% and 2.459%. Curry adds that he expected 5s30s to flatten to around 201bps and while they remain equity bulls he warns, “watchout” as seasonals turn much less constructive once February rolls around and the ratio of 3m-to-1m implied volatility is fast approaching the 1.20 level that traditionally coincides with complacency and market corrections.
Via BofAML’s Macneil Curry:
Buy a dip in US Treasuries, the m/term trend is BULLISH
The Friday push to 2.816% in US 10yr Treasury yields completed an impulsive (5 wave) decline from the 3.049% high of Jan-02 and confirms a bullish medium term turn in trend. At a minimum, we expect yields to test the 2.691% area, but the most likely outcome is for a push to the multi-month range lows between 2.544%/2.459%. We could even see a test of the 2.420%/2.399% pivot zone before renewed basing and a resumption of the LONG TERM BEAR TREND to 3.45%/3.50%. Having said that, we cannot recommend longs HERE. After an impulsive decline a market will correct higher before the downtrend resumes. Wait for a pullback into the 2.905%/2.960% before entering into longs. PATIENCE WILL BE REWARDED.
Throughout this move the curve should maintain its strong positive correlation with yields (inverse correlation with price). Looking specifically at 5s30s, we look for a base into 205.2bps/201.0bps from which a counter trend steeping bounce is likely into 225.0bps/230.9bps.
Finally, we remain equity market bulls.
The ESH4 intra-day consolidation below 1846.50 is best described as a bullish continuation pattern, with a break of 1846.50 clearing the way for 1865/1876. However, seasonality and the slope of the volatility curve say that once these targets are reached, WATCHOUT.
Seasonals turn much less constructive once February rolls around and the ratio of 3m-to-1m implied volatility is fast approaching the 1.20 level that traditionally coincides with complacency and market corrections