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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Trading Plan – The weekly chart is not yet indicating direction.

Looking at the weekly chart on the S&P500 emini futures market for April 2016. In our trading plan let’s look at this past week. Once again, we see last week’s price action is contained within the previous candlestick’s high and low, with a down move of 25 points.  This indicates no real direction for a continuation for this week.  The range last week was 40 points and showing more commitment on the seller side volume.

The sellers have taken a little of the steam away from the buyers but have not made a big enough commitment to carry through to break the next level of support.  Watching for the buyers to move in and bring this back up 15-20 points before loosing momentum and turning back over to sellers to continue this move down the previous psychological support level around 2000.

If we see large buyer support at the 2000 area and some follow through in the days that follow this could be enough to engulf this past weeks price action and keep moving towards the market highs of 2100.

If we see sellers commit to more volume and a move through the 2000 support then we could see a test to previous swing lows shown at 1975.  **Note the uptick in volume last week on the sellers moving in.**

Where could the top be for this Trading plan?

Resistance may be coming in at 2065, with the previous swing high in 2087-2092.   Our long term market high is 2100, psychological resistance, which remains as a good target for buyers.  This was tested last year in May, June and July of 2015.

The weekly chart is an easy way to catch the direction of the market.  It shows you the price action without all the noise and makes the major support and resistance from trend lines and previous price action very easy to follow.  Using these previous swing highs and lows, you can then transfer them to a shorter time frame for targets and risk management.

Trading is high risk and care should be taken, if you are not familiar with the market it is best not to trade it at all. Using a trading plan can be part of your risk management.  Always trade with a stop, and never risk what you can’t afford to loose.

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Monthly Trading Plan S&P500 on a Financial precipice seeing direction on a monthly trading chart.

monthly trading plan Trading plan, take a look at what happened when these monthly moving averages crossed.

March 30, 2001 we have a cross with divergence showing us a 600 point sell off from highs.

December 31, 2003 Bullish cross with a 700 point rally to the up side..

July 31, 2008 a bearish cross with a 900 point sell off from highs.

April 30, 2010 bullish cross with a 1450 point move to the upside.

May, 2016 upcoming cross or continuation to the upside?

We shall see.

Standing on this what is considered to be an over bought market, where the markets have bought too much, risk is not represented with a 0% interest rate, and a Central Bank policy of never ending printing and purchase of bonds and stocks. A reversal may not occur.

The question is:  What kind of intervention will we see on the next sell off?

stock prices fed policy holdsTo infinity and beyond! Central Bank Support will catapult to new market highs.

Will the Fed save us if we retrace to previous support and then sending us on to our next round of highs for 4 more years of corporate expansion?

Upside target of 2950.

Is this our reality?  If you see that the market has direction then buying the dips could be part of the monthly trading plan.

 

 

 

Reality hits the markets – targets for a falling market.

Market reality on a major sell offIf Fed policy doesn’t hold watch for these areas of support.
With the worst case scenario back to 950.

If we break the major support at 1800.

If The market reverses, our next major support is 1550 to 1580 then 1350.

Major sell off support at 950.

We shall see.

 

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S&P500 Emini future Trading Plan – As January goes so goes the year.  Corona, Ca Jan. 28, 2016

Traders have many superstitions which are backed by some correlations and timing.  One of these is:  as the first day of market goes so goes the week, so goes the month and so goes the year.  If this is the case then this could be a down year for the market.  We have a few more days to go so we shall see.

The S&P500 has some pressure to retrace as it has tested major support at the 1800 psychological support level.  trading plan 2016

Inverted Head and shoulders could extend the buyers move up to resistance 1911, 1940, then 1956.

If sellers execute off this possible flag pattern, then we could retest the support at 1865, 1849. then 1804.  If the market sells off then watch for 1769.25 as next major support.

Lots of volatility headed into this market with no clear direction in this consolidated area with smaller range candlesticks during this past week.

Will we confirm this past move down to 1804? Will we execute off of support and buyers control the next move up from the Inverted Head and Shoulders?

Conflicting patterns.  Short term day trading of support and resistance based on commitment of traders are giving the most solid signals.

Next we look at a trading plan for Gold and how buyers are getting squeezed on all the reversals from lows.  News is pushing this market around with a lot of volatility.  If you are new to trading it is best to stand on the side and practice your entries and stop management in a simulated trading account.  There is no real direction in the market with a lot of media claiming we are oversold.  This could be a consolidation zone where the market is resting to gain strength either for a reversal or continuation of the move down.  We will see who commits to the direction of the market soon as our daily price range is decreasing.

 

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Corona, Ca December 17, 2015  Bear Market – what is a bear market and are we in a bear market?

With the Fed raising rates by .25% this past Thursday I have received many questions about this supposed bear market that the US. First let’s look at the S&P500 emini futures.

Bear market - What is a bear marketBEAR MARKET Occurs when:

A bear market occurs when the market stays below a 20% move from the swing highs.

On this daily chart, we can see the high was 2100. If we take off 20% from the high the price the market would have to stay below is 420 points lower around 1680.

When Will a bear market occur?

A bear market will occur when we are below the 20% drop in the market from its high.

Presently, the buyers are still in control to the blue zone where sellers will have to be in control to keep direction moving us towards the Next blue zone around 1700.

The market is in a consolidated range.  We are in a 200 point range where price is looking for a commitment to either move higher or lower.  Our present pattern is buyers are in control so we would be a buyer of dips, until price breaks below 1960 where sellers are in control for the short term.

Gold is in a Bear Market

Bear market Gold chart

Gold is in a bear Market

If you look at a 20% decrease in the price of gold from 1900, then price below 1500 will be in a bear market.

Price has been below $1500 since April 2013.  We don’t know when it will change direction and become bullish, but as US debt increases many of the “Gold Bugs” believe it is bottoming.

Technically, gold looks like it still has a little bit more to go and could break the psychological $1000 an ounce soon.

 

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Traders on a Cliff – December trading plan 2015, Corona, CA. Markets are on the cusp of a sell off or are they on support?

We started the week thinking the S&P500 emini futures could be heading to new highs, even though the news was nothing exceptional which normally means a rally, sellers moved in and took control of the direction.

trading plan december 2015

Sellers took price to through the 200 MA just as we were getting the Bullish Cross of the 50 Moving average and the 200 Moving Average.

Support has come in as the previous swing lows just above 2000 (the psychological support)

1998 to 2004 is first support, next support coming in at 1980

Then Previous point of control at 1960 for direction and possibility of moving to 1938.

Day Trading Plan for a sell off.  What if the markets sell off and break through these supports?

Where will be the major supports for a major sell off?  First we would look for 1860 then a double bottom at 1820 confirming the previous swing low on major seller price action.  These are the targets for a sell off.

Day Trading plan for the Fed announcement on Tuesday.

Dec 16 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision

Stay away from the news on this, you are going to hear them crying over which way to go and how it could effect this or that and give us some of the biggest margin calls in history and the collapse of the bond market.

Trading the News is for the il-informed trader.  Never speculate.

Stay away, wait until it has direction and then join in.  Don’t try and guess the markets.  Wait until you see the direction of the market.

Normally when everyone is crying doom and they bring out the doomsayers you haven’t seen in years, I would search for the contrarian positions.  It seems like everyone is thinking “this could be bad”.

I am watching for consolidation on both Monday and Tuesday with a possible move down to the next support level.

Being a buyer of dips could be expensive here as there could be quite a bit of volatility.

Remember, you don’t have to trade.  You can wait for a market condition you are more familiar with or you have experience trading in with proper risk management.

It is the end of the year, do a little self reflection, write in a journal, project where the markets could be going.  Go over you system and see what works, needs some work and what could be thrown out.  The key is mastering the education you have and leveraging it a risk management system  that protects your capital.

Joel Wissing

 

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Gold Trading plan, Buy the dip November 2015 – Los Angeles

Gold buying the dips, gold trading plan 2015 novemberWith the world in a slightly precarious position with Russia and the US squaring off for Dog fights over Syria and Turkey, Europe invaded by refugees, and China in the US playing Chicken over an island with an air strip you would think that gold would be skyrocketing like all the closet crazy economists have been saying (for 3 years).  But gold is not playing.  Gold is not playing by the rules which everyone is expecting.  In fact gold has just showed us the the Key resistance of $1200 is not where it is going and that there will be a squeeze and stop run to a lower support.

Today we started with just over a 2% sell off and have slowed as we moved into the Japanese open where the BOJ Bank of Japan has announced it will not be easing for this quarter.  Boo hoo, the US has to get another patsy for stock buying and currency devaluation.

Needless to say, it does look like we could be consolidating in a $150 range that could be quite profitable if you can buy on the dips and sell into the resistance.  Gold trading is very risky and you can have a lot of exposure defendant on your leverage and how you manage your risk.  It is best you have a Gold Trading Plan.

$1132 is a major decision point for Gold.  We can consolidate in this range or if sellers step in, we could see a move back to the psychological $1100 and possibly a move to previous swing lows around 1077,

Watch for slow periods, most traders get caught in a dull market.  This is where we can see agressive buyers move in and blow out any short sellers.  If we do break below $1077 then watch for a move for a full extension that could test to the $1000 area.  I don’t see anything pushing the market this far.  But be forewarned, when gold price action slows down, it is normally to break to new levels.  The last two and half weeks have been slow.  We are just approaching the resistance on this bearish trend so watch your risk.

 

 

 

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US Dollar Index trading plan

Dollar index trading planThe US Dollar index has a Death Cross (see previous article), this could be a turning point for the dollar or it could be a brief period of consolidation then a continuation to new highs.  Presently, price is at 94.90 area and has been moving down breaking a supporting trend line.   If the dollar index price closes below this area then we can look for a continuation to the next support at 94.255, the previous swing low, which could be support.  If sellers pick up volume we could see price test to 92.60.

The volume on the Dollar Index DX 12-15 is decreasing with a slight bump up on the daily as sellers moved in breaking the supporting trend line.  Take note that from the move down on August 21 we have  large capitulation volume sell off.  this topped 140,000 contracts.  average volume this past week has been 26,704 contracts and has been under the weekly average drawing it down.

Dollar index Trading Plan for late October through November 2015

Sell side to support through October, will be selling the rallies and shorting in to any continuations if meets risk criteria.  November, watching for a buy side opportunity after some sort of downside support or capitulation revealing the Market Makers levels.  November is typically a strong month for the dollar index, although last year we saw mostly consolidation.

China is also back from vacation and it looks like they will continue their own Quantitative easing program.  Their best interest seems to devalue the Yuan.  More on this later.

Outliers to watch for:  Ukraine has been quiet as the US has been played out of our unseating of Syrian Assad.  This could be a hot point as many international player have brought planes, boats and missiles to the game.  Europe, could see more unrest as immigrants fleeing the previously mentioned situation are thrown into the winter months and no place to live.  Demonstrations could be on the social menu both for better living situations, and those opposed to the refugee numbers moving in.  There are to many financial outliers to list as derivatives, ETF’s, credit swaps, and other financial products are soaring.

Next week, more on the catastrophe hedge, Gold.

 

 

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Death Cross October Trading Plan October 2015. What is the death cross in Technical Trading?

The death cross is used in technical trading and occurs when the 50 moving average crosses the 200 moving average on a daily chart.  This can some times show a reversal of the general trend. The implication of the Death Cross is that we are switching from a long term bull market to the beginning of the bear market  Sometimes it can also show a correction for a further continuation of the major trend as we saw in 2011. Presently we are in the middle of this pattern and haven’t seen the break in either direction.  In this chart it could mean that we are in a start of a Bear Market.

Death Cross 2015 technical tradingWe’re focusing on a daily chart for the S&P 500.  Price action on the S&P 500 is in a consolidating range from 2020 to 1830. There is an 80 point range which buyers and Sellers have been pulling price around.   Price under the 50 MA has been very volatile.

In early September we experienced  the “Death  Cross” Where the 50 moving average has crossed the 200 moving average.

The Death Cross as a continuation pattern.

Technical Trading Death Cross 2011This happened four years ago, August 2011, where we had a similar pattern of a selloff with a consolidated  range where buyers and Sellers were fighting for direction and then after 4 tests down on the daily charts we passed through the 200 Moving average and then continued in The bullish direction of the market.  Once price broke through the 50 moving average and the buyers were in control price tested back to the point of control where support was found and then we continued back through the 200 moving average and on to new highs.

The Death Cross can be a reversal pattern or a continuation pattern.  Joel Wissing

The Death Cross typically means the 50MA has crossed below the 200MA signifying the emergence of the bear market.  This is where we will see a dominant selling of rallies until Market makers have flushed out the investors.  This will give Market Makers a new base to trade from as they start to accumulate at the lower price levels.

Watch for support and volume at the approach of the support and resistance levels.

 

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Calgary, AB – Calgary Day traders announce 3 day trading seminar for October 17-19, 2015

Calgary day Trading course Calgary Day traders is inviting Joel Wissing to lead a three day Money Maker Edge™ trading session October 17 to October 19, 2015.  We will have two days of intense training and one day of live trading with a professional trader. The Calgary day trading course focus is to get fundamental skills for Mastery, you don’t have to trade alone there is 25 weeks of follow up in a live trading room included.

Calgary Day traders is Alberta’s largest group of traders which meets monthly. More information here:

Calgary day traders will Learn how to day trade in a small group of 8 traders in the S&P 500 emini futures.

We will be covering:
• Business strategy
• Trade rules
• Recording and quantifying results and keeping a trade journal
• Precise Entry points
• Price and Direction
• Trade Strategy
• How to set daily targets.
• When to trade and when not to trade
• Trading plan
• How to let the trades come to you.
• Trading with targets and how to manage risk.
• How to get your income, wealth and freedom trading.
• How to spot the highest probability trade
• Mastering your strategy
• How to be responsible for your trading and level of choice in the market.
• Specific times to trade and not to trade.stoc
• Responsible trading practices
• The real working s of the market place and how to use these to your advantage.
• The difference between direction and hope.
• How to enter the trade and minimize risk.

Join us for this amazing course. There is also a live support group which meets once a month in downtown Calgary.

Call  866-640-3737 

 

 

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The markets mirror many natural conditions and environments.  This past week we have seen the first group of three class 4 hurricanes in the pacific in recorded history occurring at the same time.
Global Class 4 market conditions.

class four market conditionsThere is just so much financial fraud you can inject in the system before the storm washes it away.

Financial Fraud is happening in the world wide markets.

The VIX in the US has hit new highs. Much like 2008. There is a global meltdown. This makes the 2008 crisis look like a light mist compared to the storm on the horizon.

It will be lead by:

  • Crashing commodity prices
  • plunging currency prices
  • Corporations propped up with fake money, there is no recovery for individuals
  • Volatility is real but injected with manipulation
  • This past summer has seen more volatility that we have seen in years.
  • China is not the epicenter of this correction it is more like the canary in the coal mine
  • Yellen is holding the global economies hostage through interest rates.
  • European Central Banks are starving out their own people.
  • Refugees in Europe

The reality is interest rates are so artificially low that the ponzi scheme they have played for 10 years all the money rushing in went to the emerging markets causing collapse.

Bloomberg commodity index crashMarkets like Canada (soon to be in a recession, property bubble in commodity’s regions and currency collapse), Brazil (currency at 37 year lows), Australia (property bubble and dollar about to collapse), they are going to suffer as their currencies continue to loose in the international marketplace  and inflation. Commodities are the only market which expose the financial Con imposed by market manipulation and the Fed’s artificial rates. The Bloomberg commodity index is below the 2008 Financial crash levels with our markets still holding at only a slightly corrected price.

Money forcing rental rates up in London, New York, Vancouver and San Francisco are actually flight money  from the international rich moving(escaping) to safe havens. The worlds weathy are moving into these safe havens to protect their money and the lives. There are more Russian billionaires in London and New York than in Russia.  Property prices in these cities do not reflect a robust economy, the reflect the growing gap from rich to poor and that middle class incomes will displaced from these cities as the prices go higher.

US war has created a Refugee Crisis for Europe.

You have probably seen the presstitutes releasing articles like this:

“Migrant crisis: More troubles in Hungary as Austria, Germany near tipping point”

Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and the poorest countries like Yemen are bombed out and refugees are flooding out probably not to return.  The press is calling it migration, the truth is that these people are refugees from a war torn environment that can not support the inhabitants.  Europe should be sending the US a bill for the refugees fleeing from our corporate sponsored war in the middle east and Asia minor.  This will be a tragedy for Europe as we see the poor rushing into countries that can not employ them. These refugees will more than likely never return to their home countries.  Millions will be fleeing.

This could signal the start to the end of what we have known Europe to be.  Get ready for the borders to close, restrictions to travel to occur and an ever increasing unemployment rate as millions from Asia minor, and Africa pour into an unprepared and unorganized EU political base.  Watch as gradually each country will declare that they solely determine the number of refugees allowed in and then Germany have to pay for them.

Real estate and Rent – The Wealthy own multiple properties in multiple countries to keep their international status and not pay taxes.

Rental affordability has steadily worsened in most cities across the US. Median rental rates are now over 30% of renters income. The quantitative easing and suppressed interests rate has made it so that companies like Blackstone and Berkshire Hathaway can own and control countless billions of US rental properties.Huge private equity groups are buying single family homes and apartments across all the top tier housing markets in the US. Even ghetto rental rates have increased.  Warren Buffet also swooped in and bought properties at 10% of market value now to charge the highest rental rates in US history.  30 % of midtown Manhattan is occupied less than three months of the year.  Los Angeles renters now devote 49% of their income on rent. This is the norm?   We have a global deflationary class where their real income is decreasing, real wages are decreasing and their rents are increasing and the fed induced mis-allocation of capital which created a glut in supply which you can see in the Baltic dry index (which has collapsed).  The price to send goods from China (the worlds manufacturer) to Europe and US (the consumers) are at the lowest rates since early 2000’s.  This reflects part of the global slowdown.

The normalization of interest rates that the FED mentions is not enough to balance the risk in the markets and the amount of leverage that plutocrats use for hard assets stolen from the middle class.

Social and Geo political storm is on the rise. The world economy is in a recession and the refugees headed into Europe from the middle east and Africa will create the next biggest unemployment and social storm to hit their markets. A complete market collapse in Europe could occur as the social and financial implications of the Central Banks destabilizes and creates more inequities between the rich and the middle class which is the new poor.

Low interest rates, market manipulation and destruction of the middle class will create the financial storm that will prevail this next few years.

China is not the spark that set this off, but it is a reflection of this class 4 financial storm.

China is not the point of this world correction or the reason the world is going into a recession.  China has acted as the catalyst for world supply and demand this past 12 years being a major supplier of cash to purchaser of US treasuries, and a large part of demand for international commodities consumption.  The Bank of China is interceding in their market place and going by the play book that the US has used many times before. Although jailing journalists for using inflationary speech is a new way to control the market. This is actually not effecting the international market place as much as the devaluing of their currency and the probability that the next steps are going to be devaluing their currency more through some sort of quantitative easing and no longer purchasing US treasuries.  We could even see an increase in Treasury note sales by China which in effect could be reversing the US’s own quantitative easing.  So blaming the Chinese for an international recession is not even close to reality as the US, Europe and other countries have had a full out currency war this past few years and injecting money in to markets through artificially low interest rates so corporations buy their own stock back..

The Fed has lost its way, interests rates used to be valued to the amount of risk, and the present rates do not reflect risk.

 

What is your planB?

 

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Los Angeles -September Trading Plan September 2015 , is the market finding the bottom?

trading plan learn how to tradeLet’s take a look at the longer term charts.

The supporting trend line showing the weekly bullish trend on the S&P500 emini futures has been broken. Price has moved below the 50 Moving Average and broken the previous summer consolidated support zone above the 50MA.

The previous Swing Low of 1790.25 and major support above 1849.25 are the lines in the sand to watch.  Greece’s turmoil was quickly absorbed into the markets.  China’s fall was not and has had some push back into the US and European markets.  Buyers are looking to keep this above 1900 as a psychological support.  If we hold above there, we could see a consolidated zone retracing the previous weeks volatile range of 160 points with a move down that was off a gap to an extreme low and then buyers bringing price back up.

How to use the weekly chart in your trading plan.

This weeks price action is contained with in the previous candlesticks high and low.  Giving us no real direction for a continuation this next week.  We will be watching for price to either break below 1900 or above 2000.  We could see these price levels are visited and rejected over the next few weeks.  On the weekly chart we don’t see either a bottom for support or a capitulation of price at the lows. Most of the volume last week was buyers bringing the market back up from the large Gap down. So did we find the new bottom? It looks like we have support in where the previous swing low is, we shall see as we wind up this third quarter.

Where could the bottom be for this Trading plan?

Support is coming in at 1900, psychological support, 1834 the previous swing low last week, 1791.75 which is the previous swing low where we broke below the 50MA and then moved back up, and finally 1685.50 where we have support on a test down February 2014 and where we could test the 200 moving average.

The weekly chart is an easy way to catch the direction of the market.  It shows you the price action without all the noise and makes the major support and resistance from trend lines and previous price action very easy to follow.  Using these previous swing highs and lows, you can then transfer them to a shorter time frame for targets and risk management.

Trading is high risk and care should be taken, if you are not familiar with the market it is best not to trade it at all. Using a trading plan can be part of your risk management.  Always trade with a stop, and never risk what you can’t afford to loose.

 

 

 

 

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End of the month trading plan for July 2015 into 1st trading week of August.

end of the month trading plan 2015The Weekly chart on the S&P500 emini futures shows an Engulfing bearish candlestick on the last week. This is where the sellers have a larger real price the engulfs the previous weeks price action.

Looking for this to retrace to 2100 and then consolidate and move up, or for sellers to take control and move past the support at 2070 and break through to 2050 area close to the 50 moving average.  There is some support at this level, around 2070 and we could see a 10 point move up before it reverses and breaks support to return to the 50 moving average.

The consolidation zone from 2050 to 2118 area has been tested on many occasions and the floor has not been determined yet.  There has been no real capitulation buying or selling.

We had a higher range for the week with the range moving from last week 35 point range to this past weeks 56 point range.  In this type of chop though we must be careful for turn arounds when we get these engulfing patterns because most have only established support and resistance.

Always manage your risk first, and never take a trade you can’t afford.

 

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Trading plan in to August 2015 – Mind the gap

Trading plan august 2015 Open gapThe US markets had a partial correction with a few break away gaps which can become longer term targets for the next move down by sellers.  The first gap we can see filled today bringing the market down to within a few points of the previous open gap.

The Opening gap on the S&P500 emini futures was 8 points, we opened with buyers in control, and with in the first hours of trading we closed the Gap.  The Gap looks like it acted as resistance where the sellers moved in and then moved the market to the previous lows on the open.

There is still another open gap just below at 2001.50 .

This is another daily chart showing open gaps for the previous months trading action.

Day trading plan

Trading plan for open gaps on the daily chart.

The open Gaps below the 200 Moving average are a good target for a major sell off. We bounced on the 200MA and retraced to the previous swing highs.  The market might need a pullback to break through this resistance as sellers have moved in on many occasions at these price levels.

The 50MA is the next down side target at 2094.75. You can see that volume has picked up a little bit on the sell off and then volume drops as we put in a bit of price failure under 2108 as buyers moved in.

As we are in earnings this next week we could watch for some volatility.  The market really moved with exuberance from the supported lows on the 200MA, it looks like we are watching for some other event to sideline this move up.  Be careful trading the highs and always manage your risk first.

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Trading Plan for the S&P500 emini futures, after Greece and China dramas.

This has been a great month of theatre in the markets with S&P500 having the summer pullback, just before earnings.  So leaving the nonsense of “Drama Trading” and coming back to the real world technical trading let’s look at some charts.

Trading plan

Trading Plan – Weekly Chart S&P500 Emini futures.

The weekly chart shows that we had a large volume week, around 3 million higher than previous seeks, with sellers bringing us down to support but buyers moving in to bounce price off of support the 50MA which is the yearly average price.  Support came in at 2032 just a few points away from the 50MA but close enough.  We could see price test this area again.

Price projection for buyers 2080 to 2100, or extreme move to new highs.

Price projection for Sellers 2025 to 1980 based on high volatility.

The range was below average at 41 points, not very volatile but slightly higher than the previous two weeks.

Daily chart summer trading plan 2015Trading plan Daily chart on S&P500 emini futures

With the weekly average trading range we can see support and resistance extremes of 2013 on sell side and buyer side control to 2100.  The 200 Moving average on the daily chart co-incides with the 50 Moving average on the weekly chart.

The market is still held within the “Drama Pattern” of a consolidated range within a short period looking for direction but chopping back in forth in an above average daily range. Joel Wissing

The range from 2036 to 2075 is this “Drama Pattern” where no direction is taken.  In the short term beginning part of the week we could see a gap down from the relief run up we saw on Friday.  The close Friday was 2069.50  Watching for a gap down. If there is selling pressure on no decision with Greece Crisis, I would watch for a close of Thursday’s open gap at 2043.25

If buyers do step in off of this first support, then I would watch for a move higher to 2090.25 where the 50 Moving Average on the continuous 24 hour trading chart. Resistance on the move up at. 2082.25 to 2090.

We might need some type of capitulation price action so there could be a head fake into sellers price failure under the 2032 range.   Next support is 2000 for psychological support, 1980, 1950 from previous swing lows.

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Canadian Dollar Oil and Dollar Index Trading plan July 2015

China has fallen off a cliff, Greece’s referendum could change the face of Europe and commodities are crashing.  Taking a look at where the dollar index versus the Canadian Dollar and Light sweet crude are trading and price differences now that price is on the brink of price extremes.

Oil prices are approaching the pshychological support of $50 a barrel.

Oil prices have fallen drastically over the last year with a high of $115 and a low of $45.  Oil rebounded to over $60 but in the face of an international soon to be recession, demand has fallen off, Supply has increased and the price of oil is controlled by sellers.

In the the daily chart comparing the oil price extreme lows with dollar index and the Canadian Dollar, The dollar index is not close to it’s previous highs but the Canadian dollar is approaching it’s lows.  If the Euro and Chinese markets have further volatility and demand for the dollar surges, we could see the dollar index push through the bearish channels resistant trend line and head to previous swing highs at 1.01 .

Canadian Dollar major support is .77

This could push oil prices down to the $45 dollar range and possibly further if there is more volatility in China.  This disruption could then push the Canadian Dollar to new lows as it breaks the Major Support at .77 cents US to the Canadian dollar.

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Gold prices are weak as Europe and Asia are getting hit.

gold prices failing China stocks falling Gold prices are not headed up. There is no bid catching and sellers are in control. The critical price support is coming up at 1132 to 1143.  If sellers push below here we could crack the $1100 psychological support.

All the gold bugs are scratching there head saying the roof is falling, the roof is falling, but the truth is the naked shorts in futures and the margin calls that will be hitting the market and paid in gold will be huge.

The extension of the Head and shoulders which I have posted many times before is to 1050. If the margin calls are enforced in China, we could see large amounts of gold entering the market.

China Stock Market trading plan.

Chinese Stocks are cliff diving. China, as mentioned yesterday is the one on the side of the cliff. The Shanghai has stopped trading on $2.6 TRILLION of  Stock.  They aren’t trading on the market place and the rest have brought the market down about 9%.

Shanghai stock market falls

Shanghai Market crashingg

Chinese stock market in Shanghai has moved in to Bear market territory with a break of the 200 moving average. Today the market is off almost 9%.

The next chart is a 1 minute chart and you can see that it has fallen 10% in the last few hours.  Remember the market is still up for the year.  The biggest consideration is if the government will let it slide, or step in and letting this roll over to margin call against property values.  The Chinese market foreshadowed the 2008 US Market crash also.  Trading Plan is no overnight holding and careful with your shorting.  Chinese government can halt trading, put in their own plunge team, or just declare a price.  Very Volatile, very risky.  This will effect $25 billion in US purchases by China.

Shanghai stock market trading chart

 

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Greeks are climbing an Economic Mount Olympus and the Chinese market could be sitting on the edge of a cliff.

Presently, the US news has pushed the trader investor into missing the biggest news item that will have a large effect than the referendum this past weekend in Greece.  The news has cycled over and over on how Greece is voting on accepting austerity proposals from basically Germany and France.  Greece owes them a total of around 170 billion dollars.  Other countries since 2010 have contributed billions too, but as they are also in default and collateralize d their debt with junk bonds pushed into the European Community, in the short term they can wait to see how to follow if Greece takes on this arduous trek to a new economy.  It is not like the news pictures it as a jump, a fall from Europe, but more of a political 1 foot forward two steps back until Greece commits to their future through their own currency.  They are climbing Mount Olympus not jumping from a cliff.

Looking at the pullback in the US markets, I would attribute the long term direction more to what is happening in China.  China is the 800 lb Gorilla sitting on the financial markets.  The Bank of China has just dumped 20 billion dollars into the market today, and the total loss to the Chinese markets this past month is in the Trillions of Dollars.  Much more than the combined values of all the PIGS debt.  This 25% correction in the market has not exhausted.  If there is any indication in past major corrections their could be a 50% correction.  I think the BOC will definitely step in with more support and extend leverage to stock holders but this is setting a very bad precedent in the market.  The market clearing process of selling too much, moving to an oversold condition opens up the opportunity for new money in and inefficient, non employee-centric businesses to be cleaned out.

Trading Plan Greek Mountain Climbing or Chinese cliff

Trading Plan – Stay away from overnight holding of equities, short term trading only.

S&P500 emini futures showing support on the 200MA moving average.  Buyers and sellers had a capitulation before the move down showing seller exhaustion.  Strong buy on today’s market with next major support at 2032, 1009 then 1957.50  News out of China could be big and set off a few international market makers that might be shorting.  Watch for a break above 2100 and then some consolidation.  If Greece folds and the BOC covers the market, then we could rally through to August.

Gold, the Catastrophe hedge is weak.

There is a shift coming in the markets, and the risk off trade is slow, the catastrophe hedge GOLD is weak, Silver even weaker.  Copper had an almost 4% change in price today to the sell side.  Mortgage rates could be going up in the US in September, probably to be delayed to November or a slow sales moving month. For each half percent, an estimated 200,000 home buyers will be knocked out of the market. Home prices also correct when interest rates go up, so all these new buyers afraid of getting a higher rate are buying at the top of the market…..

Greece is going to have to climb mount Olympus to get their new economic fire and it is going to be a long hike.

The Sky could be falling, the referendum on July 5th is adding some volatility to the US and international markets.

We are sitting on the brink of some amazing changes that could be brought about by the Exit of Greece, from the Euro. Iceland previously held a referendum(in 2011) asking the people if they wanted to guarantee 2 Icelandic banks . European governments put pressure and all types of doomsday propaganda about how Iceland will loose its standing in the world. The vote was close to 60% against the guarantee. Iceland moved out from the pressure of the banks and let the business fail but kept their integrity and Iceland has been doing well since then.

It is a courageous step in the climb, and the pressure the Greeks are under both physically and psychologically must be huge and the hangover for the party in the streets just as big. In this, we might see some of the abhorrent corruption of our banking systems corrected. In the US, it seems we have not learned from our mistakes and have let the banks become our political masters, controlling our commerce, our industry and future taxes.

I remember in the 70’s when we had anti monopoly laws and policies, we broke up the “Bells”, we monitored the banks, we had mistakes but we had a sense of business that was to serve people, not as a business entity treated like a person that can not be held accountable. No banks or bankers have been charged and held responsible for the instruments they sold back and forth that created the largest transfer of wealth from middle class to the wealthy. The 2008 Financial Crisis will be small compared to what is in store for the markets in the futures.

As each of these begin to unwind, the Grexit, the Italian, Portugal, Spain exit that could follow. Eastern European countries unwind and their debt skyrockets, the baby Grexit in the US with Puerto Rico, Cities unable to pay their pensions with out issuing more debt(bonds) and of course the Ponzi of Treasuries and Bonds as the world looks for a source of safety and to take risk out of the markets.

The changes could be fast, the market could clear these fraudsters out, there could be a new start for many countries and cities. The fear of such a choice is often larger that the actual consequences.
We shall see…..

So What is your PlanB?

Remember to always manage your risk first. If you don’t have money to burn, stay out of these markets.

Joel Wissing

Money Maker Edge™

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Summer trading the S&P500 emini futures, support was hit today and the bounce could send the market to new highs.

Day trading summer trading planAs mentioned in last weeks article, the S&P500 emini futures have previously pulled back to find support in the last week of may and the first weeks of June.  Today, we hit the support of 2068.75 in the overnight session and have bounced past the Point of Control at 2081 where the buyers are moved back in to control.

In a recent talk with day traders in Newport Beach. “Trade what you see, remember this is a widely held market and every time there has been a pullback or minor correction, the crazies will come out saying the sky is falling.  The sky will fall when we have a 10% or more correction.  Until then play the direction of the market.  Trading is about being nimble.” Joel Wissing

This pattern where we have a double top or head and shoulders pattern gives us a small pullback or minor correction (less than 5%) has proven to be a continuation pattern in this widely held market.

Summer trading plan on a daily chart – major support has held.

The S&P500 reversal off of support at 2067.25 where sellers capitulated and buyers moved in is a key area of support.  If you notice the buyers moved in and brought price above the 50MA at 2097 showing strength in this move up. This means the short term bullish trend is still in tact. 

We have entered the next price projection zone (pinkish box) and are looking for it to move up, consolidate, and then break through the top either in the last quarter of the year of before the first week in August when we normally get a minor correction.

Downside projection this week was for the 2067.50 area, and the market is not showing signs of reversing off of today’s bullish move.  If there is an outlier (read this from December 2014) that causes sellers to leave their widely held positions the next area to be tested will be 1960 for a full correction where we have an open gap. 

Warning: Summer time trading can have very low volume and quick volatile movements.  Always manage your risk first and don’t trade unless you know what you are doing.  Only you can be responsible for your income, wealth and freedom!

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Weekly to Daily Summer Trading Plan June 2015

“Traders use a trading plan to set their trades, risk management and execution with the nimbleness of trading the direction of the market.” Joel Wissing Money Maker Edge™ Trading Course.

Weekly to Daily to shape your perspective of the market.  Sequencing is one of the most important steps for a trader to learn.  How one sets up their trade plan is how you create your opportunities in the market.

June 2015 trading plan weekly chartThe weekly chart is very consolidated at the top of the market where it has been hovering trying to make it’s way to new highs. 2074 the previous swing high on a move up is the new support on this move, as noted by the red line.

The sellers had a slight uptick in volume coming close to the average monthly volume of 5259k. An increase over the previous month.  Still watching as the volume spikes are decreasing.

The Range is very small at 29.75 points for May.  This type of small range occurs normally before we have some volatility and a break out in a market.  Last years summer also started with this type of small range and then broke out in August.  We might see the same unless an outlier pops on to the scene.  Greece exit, could be a big mover of the markets, or a second tier bank failure for non payments of debt.  Remember in a widely held market supported by quantitative easing we will see these periods of consolidation, low range days, weeks and months and then a small correction which acts like a spring to bring in the volatility to break through new highs.  Here is the article about some of the pressure on the 2015 markets.

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Corona, Ca weekly trading plan SP500 emini futures on a re-tracement and low volume inside day.

Trading plan sp500 written trading planTrading plan for the S&P500 emini futures. Price has moved into the next Price projection block from 2090 to 2203. The sellers moved in on Tuesday testing the support and almost closing the gap which is laying at 2091, very close to the 50MA, which could be added support.

The seller volume spiked and moved up to 1.54 million contracts traded showing some volatility with the buyers coming back in at support keeping the market above 2100.  The market was closed in the US on Monday and Tuesday when the market opened we had sellers committing to this small move down.  Wednesday price action on the open had a small test down and then the buyers moved in to bring the market up 17 points.  If the market closes above 2123 today we could have a powerful buy pattern as the buyers would have engulfed yesterdays price action.

The price projection to 2140, then to 2165 is still open.  We will see where buyers stand going into Friday’s session to see if there is room for new highs.

Remember this is a widely held supported market.  The US is not in quantitative easing but other countries are and with institutional buy backs at an all time high it seems this bull market still has direction.  A 20 to 40 point pull back is not the signal to the end.  A correction, which is normally assumed to be 10% correction in price would put us at support above 1800 which looks like the line in the sand for control in this market.  This market is very risky and only use risk capital to trade it.  Do not trade unless you know what you are doing.  When corrections in the market occur, they occur quickly and Market Makers, take the profit out of the market, and normally that means any retail traders.

Having a written trading plan is helpful to be able to analyze your work.  If you don’t understand how you analyze and look at the market, you will not experience improvements in your risk management and your ability capitalize on market price action.  You don’t have to take every trade, there will always be another trade.

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2015 Trading Plan – Corona, Ca S&P500 extends gains on low volume and low volatility.

low volatility 2015 trading plan The S&P500 emini futures weekly trading chart is showing a very congested trading zone at the top of the market.  The 5.4 million contracts traded is slightly above the weekly average but can be considered low volume. The previous weeks trading range is 54.3 points  which is slightly above the average for the past 5 weeks.  Last week the market ended in a Doji where sellers could not change the direction of the market and buyers did not make any real gains until Friday’s close.

Seems that traders are waiting for some decision around the Grexit or some other outlier to come to fruition.


2015 Trading Plan News for the week

  • May 20, 10:30 Crude 2:00 FOMC
  • May 21, 8:30 Initial Claims 10:00 Philly FED, Existing home sales 10:30 Nat Gas
  • May 22, 8:30 CPI

The Daily Chart on the other hand is spotted with open gaps, low volume moves and signs of continuation to the next consolidation zone.

daily trading plan sp500 low volatilityThe daily volume on the S&P500 emini futures contract is under the moving average. The moving average on volume is also headed lower and lower. A rising market on low buyer volume is showing weakness. Although the official US Quantitative easing program ended last October, we can expect corporate buy backs and foreign banks to be buying in until the top comes in and there will be another correction.

There are 5 open gaps since the last correction.  We look for 5-7 open gaps for each correction.  Remember this is just a tendency.  Don’t gamble on it. The next resistance at 2136-40 is our next target on the week and then moving into the next consolidation period if there is no correction.

This week could be a slow grind up if the news doesn’t send us rallying.  Any news has been good news as observed last Friday,  watch for Oil to consolidate too and for some weakness in Oil, Gold and Silver as the dollar reacts to the conditions in Europe.

Pressure is mounting on the Euro and we are seeing some hair trigger moves in trading, so watch your self.  This next break out could take a lot of money out of the markets.

 

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May 12, 2015 Corona, Ca Weekly trading plan on the S&P500 emini futures with weekly chart, daily chart and a look at the effect of weekly long term price targets and range are in effect.

weekly trading plan weekly chartPrice action on the weekly chart can be seen in many areas, first by looking at the candle stick and seeing the range from the high to the low which this past week was 44.25 points, just under the 49.10 average range for the past 5 weeks.

So what does this mean for our weekly trading plan?

The previous three weeks sellers moved in and brought price down to support at 2035, then this week the buyers have moved in bringing price to a high around 2108. We broke through the resistance at 2073 and 2084 on the daily chart and clears the way for a test to previous swing highs of 2018.

Looking at average range of 49, for the past 5 weeks with a decrease in volatility, this would tend to show that the high we could reach this week from a low of 2060 is short of the high at 2109 projection.  Volume is increasing which could effect the range as when weekly volume increases there is a tendency to see larger price ranges.  We are going to need more volume commitment from the buyers to see this break to new highs.  If we see buyers moving in on increased volume we would look to buy the dips for our weekly trading plan after we see reversal patterns from last weeks sellers control.

Daily Price Action on the S&P500 emini futures contract for this week.

daily price action daily chart with closed gapThe daily chart on the S&P500 emini futures contract is showing buyers moving in to control after Monday’s loss of control to the sellers. The bottom was confirmed in this move with the touch of the trend line at 2081 which is the 50MA. If the day ends in a doji or a buyers hammer (where price closes higher than the open), then we will look for a continuation of this short term bullish trend in to the week.

You might note that the equidistant green box is coming to it’s end and we are about to enter the next phase of the move until the next green price projection box.  We don’t know if price will close another gap at 2012 and confirm off of the 200MA, or if buyers will stay in control taking it to new highs.  The equidistant move would be a projected high of 2140 which is the mid point in the price projection box for the next consolidation period.

Remember to do your own analysis, and if you are following the crowd you might be falling into a market maker trap.  Manage your risk first and make a written weekly trading plan.  This will allow you to reflect on your own analysis.

 

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May 5, 2015 Corona, Ca Weekly trading plan S&P500 emini futures Continuation Pattern

weekly trading plan May 2015Continuation pattern in the S&P500 emini futures. We can see a retracement pattern in the two green zones.  This has become a continuation pattern on the longer term time frames.

The “W Pattern” is still playing out mentioned in the last trading plan post. We are seeing the 5 step pattern with a 50% retracement to support before the  next move in this continuation pattern.

The last two days of this daily chart showed a spinning top like pattern where the buyers brought price higher then sellers rejected it to close with almost a doji like pattern, Sellers moved in today May 5, 2015 and hit support at 2090 with buyers stepping in at 11:30 AM

We are still above the 200MA and in a bull market Trend. The 50MA is also holding support and we shall see during the week if this level around 2083 is tested again. 2060 is the next major support for the price action to chop back and forth.  If the market breaks below this support, we could see a further move to the 200MA at 2010 where we still have an open Gap.  These light blue boxes are open gaps.

Weekly Trading Plan Considerations – Take note of this weeks news and probably lower volume because of the Japanese Holiday Golden Week.

Sellers in control – watch for a move to support at 2083 then a move to next levels of support 2060 and if there is major sell pressure on light volume, then test to 2010.

Buyers in control – bounce off of support and get price to new highs.  Probably Friday as a recovery from the unemployment news on Thursday.

Always manage your risk first, and make a written trading plan.

 

 

 

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April 13, 2015 Corona, CA Trading Plan the W Pattern for April 2015 on the S&P500 emini futures contract.

trading plan - W patternTrading plan for the W Pattern – we are presently in a congested trading zone from 2031 to 2100 as shown in the green box on the chart.

This has given the sellers two pushes from the double top and buyers following up for a third attempt on the resistance at the top of the consolidated zone.  The 50 MA is acting as a Point of control between the buyers and sellers.

If you notice the move from point 3 to point 4, you can see the move to point 5 is about a 50% retrace of the buyers move.  Then support follows.

The W pattern holds the supporting trend line and sets the base for what could be the next move up.

The projected equidistant price move is 2140 if buyers stay in control.

Always manage your risk first.  Although this pattern is a continuation pattern to new highs, the market has many outliers that could reverse this especially as we are headed into earnings.

Failure of the W pattern – we could see sellers move in.

If Sellers move in, we could see price close the open Gap at 2016 and then a move to the 200MA where if we stay above it the bull market is still held in tact.

 

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Corona, CA – Joel Wissing on Gold trading plan – Point of control for trading the gold market 2nd quarter 2015.

Gold trading plan, gold market, gold pricingDo you have a gold trading plan? Many gold traders are reactive to the market because they have no written trading plan.

Trading is pretty simple, the market goes up or down, it is controlled by buyers or sellers.  A gold trading plan looking at different time frames, support and resistance levels and trading range can make your trading more responsive to what is happening in  the market.

Gold Trading, we are seeing a bounce off of the 50MA which will act as a ceiling. this was at $1215.  Once gold broke through the $1200 mark, we saw market makers selling into the bid.  This gave us price failure over $1200 and the price of gold then turned and moved down to $1177 support range.  The retracement down might not be finished and the Point of Control (Decision Point) on this move is $1175 with a range to $1190.  This is a 15 point range, where we can see quick moves intra-day.

The Range the Price has been consolidating in is from $1140 to $1220, until we see any real commitment by buyers or sellers in volume there will be little chance for a change of direction in this bearish channel.  The 200MA moving average is close to $1240 and can be used as an upside resistance which would give us a right hand shoulder for another classical trading pattern the Head and Shoulders with the head being the swing high at $1300.  If the sellers should move in the Equidistant move is projected to $1044-$1050 if sellers take it through the previous swing lows of $1140.  A powerful swing down. If we do test the 200MA then I would look for a sell off to $1080.

As mentioned before when making a Gold trading plan, the importance of understanding the support and resistance for moves controlled by both the buyers and the sellers is a way to plan for any direction.

The zone from $1290 to $1350 will be the fight zone between buyers and sellers, if we see gold prices move into this area, I am looking for it to stay consolidated until there is an outlier to break it out of the range.

Gold prices in the future reflected in dollar value, will be more relative to value of the dollar in international trade, and when trade moves away from the dollar, we shall see price increase. I expect to see it come into play in September 2015 when China, Russia and Saudi Arabia trade directly and move out of dollar oil trades.  The velocity of this change will have the greatest net effect on the dollar gold values.  Joel Wissing from Outliers 2015

 

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Trading plan for a broadening top pattern or the megaphone pattern.

Megaphone pattern technical tradingCompare the high starting the first move down to the high at point 2.  It is a higher high, then we go to the next high point 4 and see that it is even higher.  The S&P500 emini futures is playing into a technical trading pattern known as the megaphone.

What are the Characteristics of the bullish megaphone pattern?

The characteristics of a megaphone is that the highs are getting higher and the lows are getting lower on 2 consecutive legs of a trading chart.

Compare the high starting the first move down to the high at point 2.  It is a higher high, then we go to the next high point 4 and see that it is even higher.  The Lows at point 1 and point 3 are relatively the same.  Drawing a trend line from the beginning to point 2 and 4, and then a supporting trend line from Point 1 and 3 you can see that the form diverging, this is called the megaphone pattern.  The most optimal one would have the lows at point 3 lower but  being the same also is a key to the pattern.

Point 4 is the temporary new high with a 61% pullback or retracement to point 5.  This sets up the Green Zone where we can see the pattern from point 1-3 repeat or a break to new highs after a pull back to 50% of the distance of the move from point 4 to 5.  Note the green supporting line at 2070.  If this acts as support, then we might see a break of the top in the near term with a target to 2140.

Incorporating the bullish megaphone pattern into your trading plan.

If price breaks the support of the green zone, then watch for a move to 2000, the pschological support and where the 200MA is headed, and then further retrace to 1960.  There is an open gap at 1940 that has not been filled. Remember to do your own work, study the charts and if you don’t know what you are doing, don’t trade.  Trading is high risk, and you need an executable trading plan.

 

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Take a look at the S&P 500 and what do you see?  Up? Down? Sideways?

Do we see this as as an opportunity to buy?  Or a set up to reverse?   On the daily chart we see price has retraced to the previous daily swing high at the 2080 area of resistance.   If we see price hold under the 2080-85 area we could see it turn to test down lower to the 2055 area of support around the 50 Day MA.   If we see price move up through the resistance and above the 2085 area, we will likely see price retest the previous highs once again and even possibly move to test new levels of resistance.

For the next few days the 2080-85 area will likely be the key in looking for the next move.

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Weekly Trading Plan – Money Maker Edge™  day trading course March 2015

Weekly trading plan sp500 eminiTrading plan looking at the weekly chart on the S&P500 emini futures market for March 2015. Last week we closed with a Doji and a move down of 30 points. The range of the week was 50 points and showing move commitment on the seller side volume.

The sellers have taken a little of the steam away from the buyers but have not made a big enough commitment to carry through to break the next level of support and open gaps from previous trading sessions.  Watching for the buyers to move in and bring this back up 12 to 18 points before loosing momentum and turning back over to seller to continue this move down to 2035-40 where the next level of support can move in.

If we see large buyer support at the 2035 to 40 area and some follow through in the days that follow this could be enough to engulf this past weeks price action and keep is moving in  long term bullish trends channel.

If we see sellers commit to more volume and a move through the 2035 support then we could see a test to previous swing lows and area of consolidation from from 1964 to 2035.  The S&P500 emini futures consolidated in this zone for 5 weeks before getting enough pressure built for the three week move to highs.

Note the uptick in volume last week on the sellers moving in and how far below the Moving average we were on the move to the highs.

Trading Plan on the Daily Chart for the S&P500 emini futures contract.

Trading plan daily chart S&P500Trading plan for daily price action. We moved to close this open Gap as noted in my previous article, and if we bounce off of support for 50% of the previous trading days range to 2080 area and loose momentum with buyers, then I will be looking for this to reverse and sellers to pick up and gain enough momentum to break the previous sessions low and move to 2056 where the 50 MA could add support.  If there is a lot of momentum we could see this break to the next support level and break through to the 2026 support and then further to 1998 area of psychological support and follow through the  swing lows of 1960.  There would have to be some type of stimulus for this type of price action.

If buyers do hold this area and price bounces around in the 2065-80 range then we could see a test down and then spring through the resistance at 2088 and a break through of resistance and a move back to the consolidation zone at the top of the market.

There are many clues in the this market for direction and if you are not familiar with risk management and making a written trading plan it is probably better not to trade.  Trading can be high risk and there are many variable to be monitored and understood before trading.

Trade your plan. Trade what you see, and never listen to anyone. It is your money, be responsible.

 

 

 

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Trading Plan – managing open gaps in the S&P500 emini futures.

trading plan open gapsWe are looking at the Daily Chart with regular market open and close on the S&P500 emini futures.

The first open gap at 2070 was filled today. Next support is the 50MA at 2056 then the 2020 open Gap.

Keep these targets in mind as the Topping pattern on the S&P500 emini futures executes.  Remember this is a supported market and there is always a chance of a snap back rally.

The dollar index has made an equidistant move on the market and is showing more strength for a continued move also.

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

So far this week we have seen quite an amount of volatility in the markets.  Starting out with oils run back up into the 50’s.  In tandem with the squeeze on the USD, and rally in oil producing countries such as CAD, and AUD.  Not to mention hugely volatile days in the S&P 500 with 20-40 point days occurring regularly in the last couple months.  There has been some wild action in the markets this week and it likely isn’t over yet.   Euro zone is miles away from any kind of economic settling, Japan and Euro zone QE is off and away, and don’t think we have heard the last of Russia or China either.

 

AUD/NJD Trading

Looking at this pair I think we are looking at a longer term short.  This pair has been trading down for a long time and just had a bit of a bounce on the daily / weekly time frame.  We see a classic flag pattern in the price action and also the MA’s have fallen into a triple death cross formation on the daily chart now as well.  I am looking to short this pair with multiple entries and looking for targets in the 1.0250 – 1.0350 area in the next couple weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

GBP/USD Trading

GBP/USD saw a large move back to the upside this week.  Taking back over 300 pips since the beginning of the weeks trading.   Right now price is testing the long term resistive trend line and is also the area of the 50MA on the daily.  Careful buying here as the trend line will likely show big resistance unless price moves quickly through it, I will be looking for the possible test back to support.  It price does move through then the 1.5500 area will be the next area to watch for on the upside.

 

 

 

USD/CAD Trading

The CAD took back a small bit of it’s recent losses on the USD this week.  The USD has traded back to the 1.2440 area from its highs of 1.2800 against the Loonie.   If a larger retracement on the move is due, the 1.20 – 1.21 area is where things could go from here.

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Daily trading plan, where is the market going?

daily trade set up SP500Daily Trading set up, first we look at the general trend and what is occurring now.

First the Pink Square that is outlined is showing a consolidated range.  Price has been chopping traders out in this zone for weeks.  Trading days have been moving from 20-40 points with very fast moves of 5- 10 points occurring with in fifteen minutes.  This has been painful for quite a number of traders waiting for the sell off only to be robbed as Price approaches the 200MA.

I have noted on the chart Fib extensions along with projection zones.  The small zones above the present price action are revealing some fairly easy buy side targets.  With Europe falling into the back and forth around Greece exit – Grexit, and the oil squeeze by the Saudis against Russia, we can expect these large moves as risk on, risk off, QE support and central bank purchases of equities is increasing.  Read more about it here: Collision of Outliers.

Remember it is not often that markets run up or down in a straight line so there will be some consolidation in the present price levels looking for news, QE and or market makers to move in when no one is looking.  Use your stops in this and don’t trade open positions.

On the Downside I have noted a few areas of support which are open gaps based on a regular trading day, on this 24 hour chart.  Breaking down to the previous swing low is also an easy target that would fill two open gaps.


 

daily trading set up feb 4Daily Price Action Projection for Daily Trading plan February 4, 2015

This is where the fun starts. The Trading set up for tomorrow that we are looking for is a bounce equivalent to 50% of the previous days price action with a maximum of 23 points retraced from yesterdays close.  From here we are looking for a buyers market in control with a new high coming.

The expected range is 16 for a consolidated range day, 23 points for a mid range trade day and 41 points for a volatile range day.  There is a chance that we could put in a doji as the market consolidates more before a break of the channel.  This could be 2 or three days.

Also expecting a small range day on oil as we had a volatile day setting new swing highs and giving some relief to the Canadian Dollar.

 

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Calgary, Alberta – Trading the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso. 

Coming up to Calgary to trade with my partner for the week.  There was a lot of volatility and some really nice trades available.  Calgary is a boom town that is famous for the Stampede and has a sky line that is populated with skyscrapers from the previous 12 year oil boom. The almost 15 % change in the Canadian dollar is making it seem a little less expensive here.  There are Audi’s everywhere and people spend money consuming expensive dinners and wearing Lulu lemon.  The cost of living is pretty high (compared to southern California), but people make a pretty good living and it seems that the economy is doing well..  Seems

Rolling into 2015 I am watching as the Canadian Dollar is trading at 1.26 to the US dollar. I have been up to see Fort MacMurray and the 10,0000 people oil camps last year with my son.  Last night I met with a group of investor/traders at the Calgary Day Trading Group.  It seems the property bubble is still in tact, that jobs are OK, but some workers from the “Camps” are coming home as collapsing oil prices are causing lay offs at the sands.  I am putting up two charts of the USDCAD and the Mexican Peso.  There are some similarities which you will see almost instantly.

Canadian Dollar trading – the charts show a parabolic move up to what is presently resistance.

USD CAD trade - feb. 2015 targets

Canadian dollar monthly trading chart

and now the Peso.Mexican Peso Trading chart 2015
Neither of these charts are giving a pretty picture for any currency strength in either Canada or Mexico.

What I am seeing in Canada is the convergence of many factors which can fundamentally weigh on the currencies strength and ability to weather this Oil storm.
Technically we could see the Canadian dollar heading to 1.30 then 1.40 over this next 6 to nine months. Unfortunately, it all is reliant on Oil and consumption in Canada. If we look at the chart you can see how the CAD dollar acted at this present price level and that it consolidated at this range for 3-4 months. This would put us into the second quarter.

Canadian dollar Oil trading

Weekly Oil trading chart

Oil is the pressure trigger for a stronger Canadian Dollar.

If we see oil recover to a price target of $55 to $60 there will be short term recovery for the Canadian Dollar.  If there is further selling, down to the critical price supports the Saudi Oil ministers said they can support we will see unemployment raise, Oil revenues fall and probably a housing correction under way.   Presently, there is a stall in the housing market as always occurs when you have a harsh winter.  The interesting thing is, that it was 55 degrees outside this week and the sun was bright and shiny.  These two rectangles are showing where price could extend or where it could re trace.  Both of these levels are crucial to the Canadian Dollar but won’t pull it back to the 1.06 level to the dollar experienced in 2014.  Oil would have to soar back to the $70 plus range for strength in the Canadian dollar.

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

The S&P 500 has been trading in quite the volatile range lately.  Moves have been large and quick, with little warning before 20 point swings.   Last weeks move to touch to lower support in the 1980 area and then turning has set a picture for what could come next.

S&P 500 Trading

The S&P E-mini futures are trading into an important area of resistance in the 2050-2060 area, on the weekly and daily charts.   Here is where we will see the continuation of the direction or the turn to test back to previous support.   If price trades to break through the 2060 area then we will be looking to see it move back to test the 2090.00 area again, with a longer term target up at the 2140 level.    Price has had a tendency of being very choppy around the top in previous new highs, so some turbulence will be expected in the 2090 area without a clean high volume run through.

 

If we see price get stuck in the 2060 area of resistance then  could be looking for a test back to previous support before continuing the move.  Support is in at 2010 and at the 1980-90 previous low.   In the last two attempts at support, the ES S&P500 has failed again to break below the 200 Day MA and now looks to be breaking back above the 50 Day MA as well should we see the move above 2060.00.

 

 

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Gold trading 2015 where is price going?

2015 Gold trading has taken off with buyers moving into the market as a “disaster hedge” as more and more pressure is being put on the Euro.  Gold bugs might finally be getting their day as trust in the Euro has fallen and Europe lies on the edge of economic disaster.  Remember the risk off trade fluctuates between the Dollar, Yen and bonds.  The volatility of Gold makes it a high risk “disaster hedge” when economies or countries are on the brink of devastating economic change.

Price fluctuation and Gold Trading  2015

Gold Trading January 2015 Price targets

The average daily range for gold is getting more and more volatile in 2015 as Central Bankers are manipulating interest rates and adding liquidity to markets through Quantitative Easing.  This means the incestuous buying of their own bonds and purchasing of equities.

Gold buyers moved in and bought through a major resistance at 1252-1256.  This is of major importance because the door is open to further buying to 1300 which is the first psychological resistance and could signal the end of the bear market.  Watch for gold trading to consolidate at 1290 to 1320 area. as noted in the zone market on the chart.

Buyers moving in above this level could get through the next area of resistance at 1340.  Gold trading above this area will start what could be the next Bull market in this commodity.  The next area of resistance is the red zone from 1340 to 1356.  Previously, sellers moved in and kept the direction of the bear market here.  There was a lot of market makers in the futures side selling on this move, but physical demand was not being met.

As mentioned on the Money Maker Edge™ blog if you are using a “Plan B” buying physical gold on dips for gradual accumulation will give you an edge as a hedge against what could be coming with the confluence of international banking manipulations.  Don’t put you self at risk by buying so much that you can’t afford to live.  Remember this is a disaster hedge, not a risk off trade.

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Futures Trading January to February – Where are we headed?

market direction 2015 day tradingThe S&P500 emini futures have been very volatile this month coming out of multiple international crisis level events.

The S&P500 is presently in a chop zone that is roughly 120 points in consolidation on the daily chart.  The support came in at 1965 and has moved back and forth between there and the swing high.  I have placed a fibonacci extension over the previous correction to the swing high to show possible price extensions.  You might note the area from 2060 and the swing high to 2090 is where the market could consolidate and then spring board for the next targets around 2120, 2159 and 2220.

Futures trading January 2015 could see more quick short lived corrections than 2014.

You can probably see again how corrections are taking 4 to 7 days to move down and then 2-3 days to move up when it breaks out of consolidation.  Presently,  if price falls from this level, we could see a bit longer move down as we are in a Head and Shoulders Bearish pattern.  Note that Head and Shoulders Bear patterns have not taken a full extension down for the past few years and that I would expect to see them quickly reverse.

Central Banks are moving the markets and creating a very volatile intra-day trading situation.  Futures trading is an overnight market so Central Banks policy, intervention through Quantitative Easing and use of interest manipulation will first show up in the futures market.  Be aware that some of these swings have been 20 to 40 handles (points) in the after hours only to be followed by volatile gaps, and intraday reversals covering 20 to 40 points.

Trading Gaps in 2015.

I have highlighted the open gaps on the chart above, you will see them as small rectangles showing where the previous days close and the next days open have not filled.  Noting these as downside targets for sell offs. and of course the major psychological support of 1800.  If we break under here watch for the bid to be pulled and maybe some free fall.  Always remember that trading is risky, don’t trade unless you know what you are doing and have risk capital.  Don’t trade with your rent money, that is gambling!

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January 15, 2015 Los Angeles, California Financial Markets and a collision of Outliers

I am writing my Annual report for our proprietary fund ignoring this intuitive feeling that we are on the door step of a financial contagion.  January has started out fast and furious in the world with combinations of terrorism, and financial decay moving into what the main stream media paints as a healthy American Market.  In the shadow of this booming market for “Market Makers” we have watched the wealthy become super wealthy and the middle class almost disappear.  I live in California, a place of eternal sunshine, wearing shorts in December- January, where a sort of eternal optimism pervades and entrepreneurial capital flows.  Everyone that lives around me is either a upper division public servant (police, homeland security, fire chief) or an Entrepreneur working their own business.  The jobs for the public sector have been booming, the entrepreneurs have been letting people go and working themselves.  Most of my acquaintances who were anti gun this past year have purchased their first guns.  It is surprising in the sheer numbers of my semi conservative semi liberal middle of the road acquaintances have made this their middle of the road.  This is the environment I am watching spread through wealthy neighborhoods close to me.  You can’t even get range time reserved for shooting practice.  Prices for practice have gone up and times are booked weeks in advance.

I can’t ignore my intuition when it is driven through facts, this is for my friends and my students.

I talk to people around me and notice they are so complacent about the war we have been in, and the perilous heights the markets have reached from bonds to the S&P500.  The complacent think it is all taken care of, they have funded their pensions, everything is going to be alright.  Smart people have a “

Outlier Russian Economy2.  Russians are getting pissed at their economy.  Oil is down 50%, the Ruble has lost its buying power and unemployment is skyrocketing.

Santions + Worthless Ruble + Oil cratering + 80% of people are concerned over food = Putin taking the off the ball with either “War” or “Aggression”

This outlier can unfold in many ways. With Pain coming from decreasing consumption from Europe in the form of Food, manufacturing and machine tooling from Germany coupled with financing from England….this is all changed.

The next step is in progress – retaliation and here is the start.  Russia shifts Exporting Natural Gas to Europe for Turkey. This is Huge. Also the Petro Ruble which will be used instead of the Petro Dollar trade.


Outlier - Gold trading - if reversal 3. Gold is rebounding from it’s bottom.  Gold is the “Catastrophe Hedge” and even with the strength of the dollar it is going higher.

Gold trading in the derivatives market is leveraged and highly volatile.  Most traders can’t afford to hold large positions.  Volume has been increasing on this move up and we are seeing “Scared Money” come in strong this past week.  “Fear drives Gold prices” Joel Wissing

I have always been of the mind that if the economy collapses to the point where you are going to have to use gold or silver then you might invest in firearms too, because you will need them to keep your gold.  That being said, getting an ounce of physical gold on the dips could be a good idea.  Just be careful how you keep it.  There are plenty of prep-per websites for ideas.  Picking up an ounce or two could be part of your “plan B


Outlier - Euro is collapsing no bottom in site4.  Euro is on its last legs and could implode.

Most people are watching for Greece to go, but like Lehmans, there are plenty of banks that could collapse, over leveraged financial institutions that have margin calls or even clients  shifting assets. UBS richest clients just did a shift to the dollar.

I am not saying the dollar is a safe bet, but for now in the quagmire of financial reality(sh*t), it is going to be the last man standing if we collapse tomorrow.

Pressure on the Euro is coming from everywhere and this insurgency of clashing cultures is not dissipating it is accelarating.  Plan B – hold a credit card or bank account in another country in a different currency, and hold another passport.  Not everything unless you are the richest man in China he moved it to multiple currencies in the Cayman Islands.


 

Outlier US market no one cares5. US Markets could be reversing.  Markets do not move rationally, as you can see with oil, the Swiss Franc, the Euro and more…..

The US is at a crucial juncture with many outside pressures that could correct the markets.  A correction is normally 10%, but the problem is that there is so much complacency in the market that if a “Market Maker Sell” hits and no on is on the other side to buy, then the market can go into free fall. There are protections, but they can be short lived as more people after seeing the government “halt trading” have a tendency to panic and sell when the market opens.

The three small blue lines are unfilled gaps where the market has a tendency to come back and fill.  These are down side targets on the chart.  We have entered a choppy zone where the traders are indecisive and there could be many bounces back and forth until direction is found and the “Market Makers” Choose a direction.

“Plan B” Be able to short the market, Falling markets are where fortunes are made.  Educate yourself and become financially literate.

Will it happen today?  Will the market crash tomorrow?  Will it crash in our sleep? I don’t know when or how but I do know to keep my eyes open to direction, stop listening to the talking heads.  Read, investigate and find the ways to create your “Plan B”

There is a lot going on in the world and the main stream media is keeping most people fed with a mixture of fear “Ebola” and fixation “princes, religion, the web” .  I am very fortunate that I have people around me that have educated me in economics, business and the way of  the “Market Makers”.  You too can take responsibility for yourself by starting a “Plan B” and gradually implementing it, step by step, to secure yourself and family and focus on your passions.  It is the only way out.

 

 

 

 

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And knowing Gold and silver are creating new low again and again, because US Dollars value go up…. we need to see where’s the next turning point in the Dollars, so Gold and silver can get a break!

Few weeks ago, I was thinking by touching the red down trend line at 89$, dollars will go down and gold up….I was wrong. Since it did not happen, I start to look for the next turning point, witch will be at the “orange line”. at 96-97$ on this chart.

 

silverOn this chart Silver is at 2000price, witch it’s equivalent to 15.5$ currency price.

The fat red line, represent very strong resistance, if silver go below this trend line, the next ressitance will be at about 9$ and then 5$/oz

I’m sure people think I’m crazy to see Silver that low…and saying this is impossible… but not long time ago, when silver was at 25-20$…many people was also seeing im crazy to see silver drop at 15$ price range.

GC 02-15 (Weekly)  Week 20_2012 - Week 1_2015<– this is a quick Gold chart where you can see how Silver and Gold are struggling to stay above the present bottom price.

By being in a pennant..we should see the next long term direction very soon.

For Gold Price target and direction, see past Blog post, by Joel Wissing.

 

 

Natural gaz History ChartSince I know some people who are looking to buy Natural Gaz right now because they think it’s over sold. I decide to get this chart , where they could see in a very long term the Natural gaz price movement.

If you analyse properly…you will understand, that see Natural Gaz at 3.3$ is not a big deal so far.. and the bottom price , it’s at about 2.2$, when it touche the Green Trend line ( bull Trend)

————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Oh Ya ! let’s go back on US Dollars , Oil, Gold and Silver….next movement…

oil price vs dollarsYou have to understand…the reason why US Dollars keep moving Up, it’s because oil price get cheaper and cheaper. And everyone know the reason it’s because of OPEC ( created by United State with the Petro-Dollars) who are doping Oil price on purpose, to please USA…  And knowing Arabic Saudi are loosing a lot of money right now, true cheap oil… the day they will decide to bring the Oil price back to the tops, USA will start to loose the currency war… The key question it’s if it will happen soon enough, before we see gold and Silver, going so low, so it won’t go back any time soon to create new all time highs.

make-it-simpleLet’s Simplify all this information!

They important think to understand is :

  • When US Dollars going UP, Gold and Silver price going Down.
  • To change Gold and Silver price, to go Up again, you need to change US dollars, present momentum.
  • to change US Dollars Momentum,( go down), you need to change the cause of US Dollars going Up, witch it’s OPEC decision to bring the Oil Price down on purpose.

Two know what to do… Watch OPEC release news

 

oil Crude oil is testing a strong Bullish Trend ( green line). And it’s why we can see Oil price stop at 50-55$.  We could see it go back to 80-82$, and then retest the Bullish trend line. This will give a break for pretty much every country who export oil.

If ever they succeed to break 50-55$ range, this will be catastrophic for everyone, are a world recession may start. And the bottom price will be at 40$

If…again , we break the 40, next price range will be 40-20 and this is very bad, since it can stay in this range for very long time.

But since it’s the OPEC who control the Crude Oil price, and it’s more a political game between Russia, USA, and Arab Saudi ( witch are loosing a lot’s of money right now in this game)…I really don’t think anyone will consider to drop Oil under 40$..

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Gold trading in 2015.We have seen the same transition in the Gold market where the “gold bugs” have been beaten down.  The risk off trade is to the dollar, not gold.  Gold is too volatile to be held as a risk hedge.  Gold is held as a “Disaster Hedge” when there is a threat of war or some devastating economic turmoil.

Gold trading 2015 supportGold Trading in 2015

The gold markets volume has changed dramatically changed this past year and we might see less participation on the individual investor side.  If we have falling demand for gold in the derivatives market, it means would could see some extra price volatility in the daily ranges.

Watch for lack of commitment on the buyers side in the volatility. This means we could see a consolidation zone being followed by sell offs to new levels. If we were to see a continuation in direction with the $360 annual range, we might see tests to $780 range.  Remember there is no rational sell off or real price to be attained and the price could sell off to even the $600 range or more if there is some type of capitulation or default in the derivatives markets.  If there is then the upside would be to previous swing highs $1360, 1580 then 1800.  (not likely)


Dollar Index trading in 2015

The dollar index has been our major focus in our proprietary fund this year. The dollar index has been the major influence on price action in the major pairs, index trading, Gold and Oil. There has been quite a bit of volatility with momentum to the upside working in favor of most trades, mixed with oil price adjustments that have hurt many USD trades as the economies of the oil producing countries have some what cratered.

Dollar index trading 2015The key to the next year will be in trading the Dollar index and the price levels of support and resistance.  We are posting a long term chart with some upside targets.  Remember markets don’t normally move straight up or down and we will of course see some pull backs as the “unknown’s come in to play”.

If we have a continuation of the present direction of the dollar index we are targeting 92.56 and 99.10 for major resistance.  This could take many months and watch for some consolidation  for an upside continuation to occur.  The dollar index has plenty of buy side momentum and could continue for the next year at this rate. The five year decline from 2002 to 2007 and the ensuing 2 years of consolidation in a 4 point range from 2012 -2014 built enough pressure in the market to bring us up over 10 penny in 6 months.  There seems to be no let up on the buyer side which could keep this direction.

The dollar index has broken above the 200MA on the monthly chart, also above the 28.2 retracement an has a clear path to new highs.

 

 

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Gold Trade End of year targets and where are we headed for 2015.

2014 End of Year Gold Trade 300x98 Gold Trade   End of year targetsgold trading 2 Gold daily chart. There are two ways to look at this chart.  The traders expecting gold to bottom and start it’s bull run and the Dollar index traders looking for new highs and corresponding Gold collapse.

2014 saw a yearly high of 1391.71 and low of 1131.85 giving the gold market a yearly $360 range.

With the Yearly range in mind, let’s take a look at a monthly chart and see what the price action for Gold has been.

Gold trading monthly chart long term targets 300x206 Gold Trade   End of year targetsgold trading 2 Monthly Gold chart Support and Resistance and possible direction.

Gold has broken under the major support at $1200 and has spent the last two months testing new lows on this bearish cycle.

You can see in the previous chart the 200 day Moving average for gold is coming in the $1254 area and this is the resistance which traders are looking for the turn around and break of this major down trend.

The short term support under 1200 comes in at 1050 and then a full extension would take gold to $840 with a capitulatory target in a major sell off to the previous swing lows at $675.

Remember there are no “rational levels” when trading the volatility of gold and high risk markets.  The Dollar index, political pressure and banking manipulation will have a lot of effect as this 2015 keeps course.  We have pressure in a declining world economy out of Europe, Russian and even China that could start a continuation of this “super cycle” in commodities.

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Dollar index has soared to a previous swing high, crushing the Ruble through Oil price deflation.

Dollar Index 100 percent retracement 300x151 Dollar Index Ruble War and OilDollar Index has completed a multi-year retracement to previous swing highs. This multi-year high has implications across the board for many oil economies from Syria, Iran, Russia and Iraq which are dependent on oil sales to hold their economy’s strength.

At these levels, the dollar index has pushed commodities into a deflationary cycle that could push some economies into a further recession.

 

Price Action on the Dollar index

14 12 16 10 19 07 DOLLAR INDEX 282x300 Dollar Index Ruble War and OilDollar Index  targets on a weekly chart.

The consolidation zone from 87.50 to 88.50 will show us where the market is headed.  There is a bit of exhaustion in the Dollar index at these levels and there will probably be some stimulus to continue direction after the FOMC meeting Wednesday.

Downside targets for support are 85.50 to 86.25 where we had previous consolidation and resistance at 92.50 to 93.50.

Although there has been a lot of upside movement in the dollar this move has not shown any sort of capitulation.  Price at these levels previously exhibited price failure and the inability to keep direction as sellers moved in.

The dollar price action is effecting many commodities and the economies of many countries whose source of income is Oil.

Look for continued volatility as there is political pressure on both Russia, Syria and Iran and this might add strength to the dollar if there is any saber rattling.

45% of Russia’s economy is supported by oil and this move in oil and the deterioration of the value of the ruble could lead to intervention in the market by Russia’s central bank.  This added volatility will make for wild movement and extreme caution should be used in trading in this environment.

If you are not used to trading in a volatile market, it is best to sit on the side than to expose your self to this much risk.  Market makers are also getting beaten up in this environment and you would be best to sit on the side lines than to participate.  Trading is high risk.

 

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The S&P 500 ES Traded one of it’s largest range days in quite a while today, opening  and trading a 27 point range to close the day a bit better than flat.

14 12 09 23 29 13 SP500 300x188 Day Trading S&P 500   New Highs or Signs of a Turn?

Price traded down through the overnight to open at 2038.00, then tested the 2033 area of support before turning and flying back to the  close the day in the 2060 area.      This 55 point range will be the area to watch for an indication for the next direction.  May have their sights set on the 2100 and 2140 area’s as upside targets.  While others are waiting for what they believe is the impending fall of a market propped up by years of fake buying via QE 1-3 and Operation twist.

14 12 09 23 38 12 SP500 300x188 Day Trading S&P 500   New Highs or Signs of a Turn?

 

With no clear sign of anything other than just sticking to the trend.  THe S&P has been grinding away at the tops with quick sell offs followed by buyers jumping in to bring prices right back.  Take today’s price action with over 20 points of price failure for instance.   Should this market continue to creep higher we could very well see the 2100 area.  However if this plays out as a double top pattern we could be setting up for a reversal, perhaps another 100 points or so as a first target, then depending on the conditions of the market perhaps even more.

 

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Trader Problem… Gold

Solution: 2- If this trade break the trend line ( up trend)…get out my long position, and keep my short position so I start to make some profits.

 

 

gold str 3 300x157 Trader Problem... Goldday trading course 2

Trader Problem… Gold

Solution: 3, …don’t get in my hedging area…and will keep moving up. I doubt on this one… but you need to be ready for any solution…

 

 

-Conclusion-

0139a9c0913e45a389738842987c0497 212x300 Trader Problem... Goldday trading course 2

 

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Dollar Index Trades are pushing the markets from Currencies to Commodities, the strength of the dollar is unseating majors across the board, Who is ready for 96 on the Dollar Index?

Dollar index trade could carry to extreme highs we haven’t seen in years.  At present rate we could see a test of 92. at years end. This is the previous article in August with this price action projection. Click here.

Dollar Index changes the game 11 18 2014 300x206 Dollar Index trading pushes markets.The dollar index is showing continuation pattern after continuation pattern.  The consolidation zones are outlined in aqua boxes showing areas for indecision as the dollar moves up.  This is a daily chart with first price projection to 88.40 with a second move to 89.78 and a continuation to 91.47.

The key to understanding the Dollar Index market is the weakening of the European Economy, the Quantitative Easing in Japan (which is just the Fed transferring the burden to Japan) and the punishment that is being handed out to Russia in the form of Cheap Oil.  This could lead to the next super cycle in commodity price declines and weakened currencies.   Joel Wissing

The dollar Index trade directly effect major currencies. 

Dollar leads multiple markets 11 18 2014 300x283 Dollar Index trading pushes markets.

The key markets on daily charts I will look at are:

Japanese Yen -because of the new rounds of quantitative easing the Yen has been lifting the dollar index.  We are looking for the Yen to move to .80 on the futures. Euro – more and more pressure on debt, taxation and for some countries to move away from the Euro keep downward pressure on the Euro. British Pound – Continued weakness and more financials showing underlying weakness in the economy could have the pound cycling further down. Canadian Dollar – the double whammy of debt and decreasing oil revenues as the dollar index strengthens has the CAD reaching new lows.  If we get a break of the support here we could see another 4 penny move.

 

 

The Charts where we can see a longer term continuation of this move is the weekly chart comparing the Dollar Index trade and commodities.

Dollar Index price projections weekly 23 2013 47 2014 282x300 Dollar Index trading pushes markets.If the strength in the Dollar index keeps its present pace we are looking for this net effect on Oil trades and gold trading.

Dollar Index price projection, next level of resistance if we get buyers in control to break resistance at 88.55 next move to 91.47.  We could see a test to the supporting trendline, but the major price action in keeping with the trend could have us there before the years close.

Brent Oil and Texas Crude futures are showing this weakness also with a break of support and further price action as follows:

Brent crude  support at 69.65 and CL Texas Sweet Oil at  69.

Last we are looking at Gold trading and there are some areas which we can look at either a reversal showing that the bear market has ended, or to continue with this price action as the dollar index strengthens, a move to 1078.  If there is a major sell of watch for the test under $1,000 an ounce which will then give down side targets of $980, $910, and $780

Gold does have one side which could give it buoyancy and that is as a Crisis commodity.  As a crisis commodity, any “doom” like scenario will cause gold to skyrocket.  For instance Conflicts between Israel and any Middle Eastern Country – Especially Iran, we  can also look for unwinding of some large futures positions and margin calls causing a temporary run on the markets.

Russia and Saudia Arabia are looking for ways to support the oil market, although combined they could slow the price plummet in the long run, neither economy could afford to support it.  It seems these are punitive measures against Russia, which is unfortunately playing out against Canada also.  With this in mind it will be a black swan event that probably sends this the other direction as the FED would probably stand aside to let the dollar index trade play out to new highs and not interfere with more direct QE or rate hikes.

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More and More New Highs these days for the S&P500.  Seems everyone is talking about 2100 or 2150.  In my experience when everyone is talking about it, it has a good chance of being set up for a sell off.  But who knows?   Then I saw something interesting in a FB post by a trader friend of mine that pointed out something I hadn’t noticed.  Looking at it now, I can’t believe I hadn’t seen it, it seems obvious to me now.  So I decided to look at my own charts on it.

SP500 Megaphone 300x210 Live Futures and Forex Trading   S&P500 Pushes New Highs, Oil Stays Under Pressure   S&P500 Trading

This is a look at the daily chart of the S&P500.   It seems that since July it has been creating a Megaphone pattern that after Octobers 150 point unilateral run, is now closing in on the resistant trend line in the 2035-2045 area.   Based on this chart, this 2035-2045 area is a decision point.  It could get a jump in volume from the buyers and close above 2045 here, in which case I would probably start leaning long.  Or this area could be a prime candidate for a reversal.    Of what magnitude one would have to wait and see.  However there are a couple area’s of interest that I thought I would outline.    SP500weekly 300x203 Live Futures and Forex Trading   S&P500 Pushes New Highs, Oil Stays Under Pressure

Pushing these highs is now seeing an increase in volume.  Rather it is decreasing as prices move higher.  Not a great sign for breaking through resistance in my experience.   Also, looking back to the August swing low and using a FIB Retracement on this move up, a reversal and move back to test the 1900 area of support would be a great set up as an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and also fall perfectly into the 61.8% retracement area of the present move up.

Next stop, should price continue through the 1900 area then next we could see price move towards the previous swing low in around the 1813.00 area for another test.   Then – the full Megaphone after that could see a test back as far as the 1750 – 1730.00 area.    Now I am not making any trades on this yet, as I don’t think there is any goo indication of what direction this market will take yet.  I don’t like low volume moves at the very top, they don’t fit my trade criteria.  I prefer clarity in what I see and I don’t have it on this just yet.  However it is something I am watching and considering in planning for the next trade on the ES for me.

 

14 11 12 18 52 16 Crude Oil 300x210 Live Futures and Forex Trading   S&P500 Pushes New Highs, Oil Stays Under Pressure Crude Oil Trading

Crude has been under a lot of pressure lately, spending a few months now constantly hitting new lows.   It has blown through any support it has hit since it bounced at the $91.00 area.  Since that it has been straight down $15.00 and has been testing the $76.00 area the last few days.    I don’t think a retracement at some point here is out of the question, The weekly chart shows the $74 – $76 area as an area for reversals.  However, the bottom buyers have been hammered on this move over 14 11 12 18 52 16 Crude Oil1 300x210 Live Futures and Forex Trading   S&P500 Pushes New Highs, Oil Stays Under Pressure the past couple months and being a bit gun shy on going against a move like this could probably save you some pain.

If price moves through the $75.00 area then it looks like the next stop will be $71 – $72.00.   Seems it should be a great time to be invested in refineries as they love keeping prices the same (or a real small drop)  and steepening the spread.

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This week I haven’t seen too terribly much to get excited about.  I take a look at a few markets that I have found that I am watching for larger moves in the Mid – Long Term time frames.    Here is a quick look on some of the charts I am looking at this week and trading.

AUDCHFwkly 300x187 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Market ViewAUD/CHF Trading

Looking at the weekly chart on the AUD/CHF we can see that this pair is looking like another move up is forming off of the supporting trend line.  This pair also seems to be playing out an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on the weekly chart from August 2013, with also another Inverse Head and Shoulders Playing out on the daily time frame moving into this move up.   This multiple time frame set up should be good for a low risk long entry with support at the 0.8350 area.

 

 

 

EURUSDwkly 300x200 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Market ViewEUR/USD Trading

Both the Monthly and the Weekly charts on the EUR/USD are moving into long term support.   Bringing back the Multi-Year pennant that I wrote about a couple months back, we can see that price is moving to touch to the supporting trend line  from all the way back to 2008.   This current area @ 1.2400 – 1.2450 is also an old low from 2008, so the possibility of finding support here does exist.   However I believe the more likely scenario will involve a short term stall here with some small potential upside (Say roughly 1.2570), then the continuation of the move to test the 1.2200 – 1.2270 area.

Should price break below the 1.2200 area in the future, we could be looking at a massive sell off that could see prices move to test into the 1.1800 area or even further to prices not seen since the early 2000’s such as 1.1000 or 1.0500.  However I don’t see those prices anytime in the near future, and as long as the long term support at 1.2200 is intact I will not be looking for those figures.

EURCADwkly 300x242 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Market ViewEUR/CAD Trading

The EUR/Cad  continues to flirt with support.   Watching the important 1.4000 area on this pair as the Euro has been testing this area since August.  If this support is breached we could be looking at price trading to test the 1.3700 – 1.3800 area of support.   With the MA’s in a full bearish sweep, price has definitely got some downward pressure.   However unless price trades and closes below the 1.4000 area, I would be leaning to finding a low risk entry for a move back to test upside resistance first, as this is the 5th time on a daily chart that price has tested this area in the last 4 months.

 

 

 

 

EURGBPwkly 300x242 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Market ViewEUR/GBP Trading

Looking at the EUR/GBP on a weekly chart we can see that we are trading a longer term bearish channel.  However price has now tested the 0.7760 area for the second time and has not broken support.   With this weekly double bottom pattern in early stages and what seems to be a new weekly higher low coming in right now.  An entry for a test back up to resistance is starting to look probable.   0.7980 and 0.8100 could be good targets for resistance if that plays out.   However, if price trades back down and breaches the 0.7750 area, we could be looking at another bearish move and then target 0.7550.

 

 

 

 

GBPCADweekly 300x242 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Market ViewGBP/CAD Trading

GBP/CAD took a big hit today diving over 240 pips from today’s high.   Price right now is testing the the weekly supporting trend line at the 0.7820 area.  A break of the trend line could see price move to test the previous swing low price of 0.7531 from early September.   Daily charts have MA’s in a Triple Death Cross from this pairs previous move down.   0.7820 is key…

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Gold trading targets long term looking at the monthly and boiling it down.

A quote from Greenspan this past week: Greenspan told the Council of Foreign Relations that the Fed’s $4 trillion balance sheet is a “pile of tinder, but hasn’t been lit.” Once the central banks stop “sitting on” their reserves, said tinder will ignite, “inflation will eventually have to rise,” and in turn, “gold will move higher, measurably so.” FXstreet

Problem is with all Ponzi’s the bigger they are the longer it takes to fall.  So don’t look for the Dollar to disappear this year…maybe.

Gold trading Monthly 4 2009 12 2014 263x300 Gold trading targets long term

Gold trading on a monthly chart looking for support in this bearish channel.

The targets on the bearish channel could break the $1000 psychological support.  This is where the real sell off could occur.  But let’s look at the monthly chart to see what it reveals.

Last month we have a sell shadow that shows that the sellers are still in control and continue in the direction of the general bear market.  There is no relief in site as the increase in volume is not capitulatory and there is no real support until 1090.

We might chop around in this area 1135-1160 until sellers start to panic or buyers see opportunity.  The only way I see this happening is through politics and geopolitical mishaps rather than basic market fundamentals.

“trend is your friend” could not be stressed more and the volatility in gold should keep the beginning trader out of the product.

Gold trading Weekly Week 1 2013 Week 45 2014 236x300 Gold trading targets long term GOLD TRADING WEEKLY CHART

We can see the major support has been broken at 1160 and are watching for a weekly close above it.

We have a volume increase on the last week of selling and watching for this weeks volume levels.  It seems there is above average volume with some momentum to the downside.

The volume of gold trading on the weekly chart has not shown any significant commitment or exhaustion.  Watching for a level that breaks 500K on a weekly for a change in direction

As you can see on the red diamond, there might be an exhaustion point and time for a reversal.

A projected move to 1128-35 for support with a close on the trend line is a likely target if sellers keep it up.  Watch for volatility into news.

Gold trading on a daily chart.

Gold trading futures daily chart 1440 Min 11 5 2014 236x300 Gold trading targets long termGold trading on the daily chart shows a relentless seller with slightly below average volume where the sellers are in control.

Last week we had a large move on seller volume as the JPY started their quantitative easing and pushed money towards equities.  This started the next move which broke gold under the 1198 support which it had tested and failed previously to break.

Gold is staying with in the bearish trend lines and we might see a Retracement back towards the 50 moving average as sellers exhaust.  Expect to see resistance at 1160, 1178, and 1198.

Gold would have to close above the 1202 on multiple time frames to invalidate this next price projection to new lows.  Supporting trend line is the  key.

Will update late.  Watch out for volatility, minimize your risk and don’t trade gold if you are not familiar with the market.  Never listen to anyones advice and be responsible for your trading.  If you don’t have a written strategy, don’t trade.

 

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Gold “M” pattern for “Murder”

M for murder 300x210 Gold M pattern for Murdernotes to my traders Gold…and Silver icon smile Gold M pattern for Murdernotes to my traders love it. …we have a lite break now, but after seeing Gold, complete the “M” pattern, and instead to bounce on bottom, it go down with a gap so it create news lows.
…Let’s see when this will stop bleeding, for Gold target…if I remember, this was at 950.00 and 740$ I think….
PS: as gold go down, gold mine liquid they assets to big bankers icon smile Gold M pattern for Murdernotes to my traders …isn’t nice to be a banker, be able to manipulate gold price, so then, they can buy profitable gold/silver mine, at the price they want to ?

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Stock Market exhausts over 2010 and buyers take a breather.

ES 12 14 Daily 8 26 2014 11 4 2014 267x300 New Highs stock market exhausts over 2010sp 500 Stock buyers are taking a break as we see on the S&P500 emini futures index daily chart.

Major Trend is UP  Short term trend is retracement

Today’s Projected range   1998.75 to 2020 On low volume

Resistance 2018, 2043,
2013 for a double top
Support to 1998 1986.75  Expecting strong support as price approaches the 2002 level
1898 for the 200MA
Capitulation to 1800

We have a few open gaps at 1988.25 and 1902.75 and the big one at 1850.25 Who knows when it will fill.

The buyers have pushed up on decreasing volume into this last gap up at 1988.25 so as we see the stock market exhaust watch for sellers to make a move to fill this gap and then probably a continuation with the major trend.

There is a good chance we will see some deflation as Oil is falling to new lows.

 

 

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A look at a few pairs of not this week.  Since the FOMC & Bank of Japan news last week, we have seen some large moves in most pairs involving the USD and JPY.  Will the dollar continue its run?  Will the Yen continue to slide?

14 11 03 11 32 36 GBPUSD 300x245 Forex Weekly Market ReviewGBP/USD Trading

Weekly trading on the GBP/USD has fallen down under the 200MA now and has started to more downside pressure with the rapid rise in the USD since last weeks FOMC meeting.   Should down side pressure continue, GBP/USD could see price test to the previous daily low in at 1.5925 and with a break of support there could look to test deeper support in the 1.5750 area.

 

 

 

 

 

14 11 03 12 04 11 AUDUSD 300x179 Forex Weekly Market ReviewAUD/USD Trading

AUD/USD has just seen a break of a Bear Flag on a daily chart.  Again with the large upside on the Dollar Index this pair is suffering as well and could see the test of the previous low at 0.8640.  If the 0.8640 area doesn’t hold, this pair could see more downside to the tune of 400 – 500 pips.  Monthly support shows a possible 0.8100 target should the selling continue.

 

 

 

14 11 03 12 11 01 EURAUD 300x208 Forex Weekly Market ReviewEUR/AUD Trading

Both of these pairs have seen substantial downside in the last few months.   However looking at them against each other we can see an Inverse H&S pattern formed on the daily.  Should this pattern play out we could see an opportunity to take the Euro long against the AUD.  Especially if the AUD/USD breaks support and starts a long term decline towards the monthly support in the 0.8100 area as I mentioned above.   However with the Euro under wide pressure as well, it may just be a matter of the biggest loser contest here.

 

 

 

14 11 03 13 18 14 USDJPY 300x224 Forex Weekly Market ReviewUSD/JPY Trading

USD/JPY has seen quite the move recently as well.  With the USD strength and the announcement of BOJ with more buying of equities the JPY has seen a sell off across the board.  As my 114.000 target that I wrote about a couple months back has now been hit, I am looking for a further move into the 116-118.000 area, with a long term extreme high target in the 123-124.000 area over coming months.

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Corona, CA – Price Projection – The S&P500 emini futures has hit the 50MA, (moving average) and could stall and create a consolidation zone from 1948 to 1972.

ES price action 10 27 2014 300x267 Price projection SP500 pre open

This Zone from 48 to 72 was the previous swing high of consolidation before the last buyer move and the correction to 1820.

The blue arrows are a single deviation price projection in both directions. 1972 to 1950 are the bounds for the first move dependent on the opening pressure from the overnight.

For a single directional move with momentum we are looking for resistance at 1992 and support to come in at 1930.  These would be large swing moves and Monday normally falls into a range of 13 to 18 points.

Buyer Volume has been decreasing on the past 3 days of trading and this could sign that the bulls and bears are searching for direction and waiting for one of the other to make a move to create direction.   A lot of the general financial media has talked about taking profits at this level and breaking to new highs.  Watch for the bounce off the open if there is no major news breaking and NY is not experiencing more Ebola.

 

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After running through numerous charts I found a few that look interesting to me to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.   Here are a few of the things I will be watching in the coming trading days.

 

14 10 23 15 17 22 AUDCHF 300x211 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Forex Outlook AUD/CHF Trading

Looking at the possibility of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the weekly.  Support is in at 0.8175-0.8200.  Trading above that will give me a target of 0.8415 and 0.8600 in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

14 10 23 15 41 27 AUDNZD 300x211 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Forex Outlook AUD/NZD Trading

Looks like the AUD/NZD has found support and is making a move back to the upside.  Could retest previous highs and if it moves through the 1.1315 area price could look to test into the 1.1400 – 1.1500 area.  Long term support in at 1.0930 – 1.0960 area.

 

 

 

 

 

14 10 23 15 36 00 CHFJPY 300x211 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Forex Outlook CHF/JPY Trading

CHF/JPY has crossed sideways through a long term bullish trend line and also has formed some lower highs in doing so.  With big resistance to the upside it looks as though this pair could see some retracement on the previous move up in the coming weeks.  Resistance in the 117.00 – 119.00 area with support at 111.400.  a break of 111.400 will likely lead to selling into the 109.00 area of support.  Without a breakout this area could consolidate and continue sideways.

 

 

 

 

14 10 23 15 20 16 CADJPY 300x211 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Forex Outlook CAD/JPY Trading

Looking at the Cad/JPY there has been a sideways channel forming in the last number of months.  I am watching for a break of this channel as that will likely lead to long term direction on this pair.   Watching for the 96.000 – 96.600 area for a decision on direction on the daily to see if we will retest the top or reverse back to the downside and continue to trade under the 50MA on the daily chart.

 

 

 

 

14 10 23 16 00 54 EURGBP 300x211 Live Futures and Forex Trading   Weekly Forex Outlook EUR/GBP Trading

EUR/GBP looking like it is forming an inverse head and shoulders on the daily chart right now, after putting in a long term double bottom on the monthly and weekly charts.  If this pattern plays out we could be looking to retest previous highs in the 0.8030- 0.8060 area and then watch to see if price will move through resistance.   However with all the news out of Europe at the moment, perhaps things will call for a deeper test into support.  I expect to see early in this weeks trading how this will play out.  Short term support at 0.7870 with previous swing low in at 0.7770.

 

 

 

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S&P500 Emini Futures Price and Direction, watching as we had a capitulatory sell this past week and watching the retracement (38.2)

sp500 emini price projections 7 17 2014 10 20 2014 300x263 SP500 emini futures price projection sp 500 The S&P500 emini futures price and direction to start the week. The first major resistance is the 200MA at 1890. Buyers tested this Friday with a a move up to pierce but not close above. Support is at 1864 with a closed gap on the opening price action.

 

Today’s Projected range
1850 to 1900
Volume could fall off
Resistance 1893 and 1900 1913
Support to 1864 1850
Capitulation to 1800

Watching for this to stay in a tight range, no dominant pattern as there could be buyers following through on Friday’s momentum.

Possibility of a Inverted Head and Shoulders with a return to 1940.

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Today I am taking a quick look at the S&P 500 Index and Crude Oil to check up on what could be our longer term direction on these two. SP500 300x208 Live Forex and Futures Trading   A look at the S&P 500 and Crude Oil S&P 500 Trading – ES

Looking at the daily and weekly charts on the S&P we can see that price is looking like it may be crossing the long term weekly / daily supporting trend line set in at the   1940.00 area.   I expect some support in around the 200MA as we have previously seen.  A closing price below 1920.00 on a daily chart could confirm direction and see price continue to test into the 189SP500Weekly 300x208 Live Forex and Futures Trading   A look at the S&P 500 and Crude Oil0.00 area of support from there.

However, if the buyers step back in in this area and bring price back up above the 1945.00 area, I will expect another move to the upside.  This long term trend line has been respected every time it has been touched since Dec of 2012 so I would not be to quick to lay on the short unless you have ample reason to do so.

I will be watching for the confirmation on the breach of this long term trend before putting in a long term position on it.  Until then, the daily range has been large and has offered many good intra-day trading opportunities.

 

 

 Crude OilDaily 300x171 Live Forex and Futures Trading   A look at the S&P 500 and Crude OilCrude Oil Trading – CL

Looking at oil on the weekly and daily charts it is easy to see that Oil has broken the long term supporting trend line that I wrote about a little while back at 91.00.

Price has already tested the $88 target I mentioned once and if it continues to trade below the 91.00 area then $86 – $85 is a great target looking at the weekly chart.

Also, another item of note is on the Daily chart of Crude Oil we have gotten the classic technical long term short signal “The Triple Death Cross”.  This occurs when the 50/100/200MA’s all cross into order in the bearish position.   This

Crude Oil 300x171 Live Forex and Futures Trading   A look at the S&P 500 and Crude Oilmeans that the 50MA is under the 100MA and the 100MA is also under the 200MA.  In classic technical trading this points towards falling prices in the Mid – Long term time frames, and with the recent break of the $91 support, I am watching price for possible entries on short positions to target the $86-$85 range as a first target in the coming months.

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Thought I would take a quick look at a couple of the Majors with the USD today to see what direction they could be going in the next few weeks.   I am checking in on the EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY.

EURUSD 300x134 Weekly Trading   Live Futures and Forex TradingEUR/USD Trading

Long term trading on this pair seems to have moved under the long term support at 1.2730.  This move below support opens up a monthly downside target at 1.2325.   1.2325 is the next area to watch for on this pair as price moves to there to test the monthly supporting trend line.  This pair has seen a HUGE decline in recent months and shows good momentum to close the 1.2325 target.

 

 

AUDUSD 300x123 Weekly Trading   Live Futures and Forex TradingAUD/USD Trading

AUD/USD is trading on key weekly support.   A double bottom is in at the 0.8659 are right now.  If price has enough momentum to break support and trade under 0.8659 then this pair could fall to retest previous lows in the 0.8085 – 0.8100 area.  However if price finds support here and retraces in the short to Medium term the we could see a test back to the 0.8850 area before any key moves come in.   Key price is that bottom of 0.8659.

 

USDCHF 300x239 Weekly Trading   Live Futures and Forex TradingUSD/CHF Trading

Price is trading into a long term resistive trend line at 0.9650 area.  If price breaches this area I am targeting the 0.9800 area and long term could even see the 0.9950 area again.  If resistance holds a retracement to the 0.9400 is probable.    Watching the 0.9650 area…

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY 300x251 Weekly Trading   Live Futures and Forex TradingUSD/JPY Trading

Now trading sideways for the last three weeks, resistance in the 109-110.000 area has held so far.  If price breaches this resistance then we could see price move to test the 112.00 and 116.000 area’s in the Med – Long Term.   If resistance holds, look for a retracement on this move.  108.000 area to start with 106.00 as the next area to watch for.   Still watching for the decision.

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This week I am posting a few more of the markets I am watching for trades over the Mid-Long Term time frames.  It seems that after my analysis and going through my charts that the GBP and the JPY are going to be the currencies I am watching the closest.   I am curious how these two will perform in the coming months as my technical s on GBP and JPY charts are coming into agreement on direction for the Mid-Long Term.   I have outlined some long term weekly observations I have made looking at these pairs against a few other currencies.

GBPJPY 300x224 Weekly Trading Outlook   GBP / JPYGBP/JPY Trading

After trading up though the previous highs on the weekly chart a couple weeks ago, the GBP has come back to test the new support at the 175.00 area.    This area is the key to the long term direction and a move back below 175.000 could see price start on a reversal and test back to previous supports.   If this occurs I am targeting 174.00 and 170.00 for downside targets.   If price stays above the 175.000 area, then I will remain on the bullish side with my previous targets from earlier posts.  Undecided until a direction is pointed out probably later in the week.  However, based on what I see against a list of others I am leaning towards the SHORT.  However no position yet.

 

 

 

 

GBPCHF 300x239 Weekly Trading Outlook   GBP / JPYGBP/CHF Trading

This pair has now put in a new high but has reversed right back down to trade under resistance.   I am watching for the possible reversal in this area over the coming weeks.  If price crosses support at 1.5440 I will be looking for it to test back into 1.5300 and possibly the weekly supporting trend line in the 1.5100 area.   There is Monthly resistance on this pair at 1.5479 that I am not sure it has the ability to crack.  Watching for the SHORT

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD 300x250 Weekly Trading Outlook   GBP / JPYGBP/USD Trading

GBP/USD is testing to the 200 weekly MA at this point.  Weekly downside support at 1.5900 area.  If price breaks the 1.5900 area, watch for the test to the 1.5500 area in coming months.  Watching for the SHORT

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPSEK 300x224 Weekly Trading Outlook   GBP / JPYGBP/SEK Trading

This pair has just seen a large rally since early in 2013.   With the last of these tops on a weekly being very close to the same, technicals could be starting to point out a change in direction in the coming weeks.   Watching for the SHORT but could possibly take 2-5 weeks to find the right entry.

 

 

 

 

 

EURJPY 300x255 Weekly Trading Outlook   GBP / JPYEUR/JPY Trading

Price has crossed the weekly supporting trend line and is staying under the resistive trend line.  Could see a test to the downside for this pair if price continues to trade below the 136.00 area.  First level of support is at 135.00 area with 132.000 to follow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NZDJPY 300x219 Weekly Trading Outlook   GBP / JPYNZD/JPY Trading

This pair also has recently crossed a long term weekly bullish trend line.  Also, this pair has played out a triple top and is showing signs of reversing direction.  The last 2 weeks of trading saw price cross and close below the 50MA as well as the classic “Death Cross” of the 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages crossing into a bearish divergence.  Currently short with targets set in the 82.50 area.  Resistance in at 86.000 area.

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For those who made money on Bull market,Unfortunately,I won’t be able to make any future calls in for you guys, with already some

And for those who will attend the event, you will also receive a private support by e-mail, or  live, so we help you to take the MAXIMUM in profits from the Market!

Have a Great End Of trading this years! is when you make the most profits or the market! Talk to you Next Year! Happy New years!

Konstantin

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This week I took a long term look at a dozen markets to get a sense of how these markets will moving over the long term for direction.   Here is what I think we could see over the next few day / weeks/ months of trading these markets.

 

DOLLAR INDEX 300x239 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview Dollar Index Trading

Price is trading into a large monthly resistive trend line @ 85.70 – 86.20 area.  This will be the area to watch to see if price will take a breather from the last couple months move up and turn around to trade back into the long term pennant that has been building for the last 6yrs.  If we break out through the 86.20 area, we could see the Dollar Index trade to test the 89-90 area and then possibly the 94 in the coming months.   86 remains the key area here.

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil 300x239 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview Crude Oil Trading

Price seems to have found support from it’s long term move down in the $91.00 area.   Currently we are experiencing the building a possible reversal pattern on the daily charts after the last couple weeks tested the monthly support line at $91.00 and failed to push through.  Price is still trading inside the daily bearish trend line, but with a break of the $94.50 – 95.00 resistance we could look for price to return to the $97.00 area.   Should price decide to retest the bottom and break $91 support, there is little keeping oil from moving to test into the $86 – 88.00 range.  $91 Support is the key.

 

 

 

 

EURGBP 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview EUR/GBP Trading

Price has been trading straight down for this pair the last couple months and is closing in on some huge long term support.  Long term multi year support on the monthly is coming in at the 0.7750 area.  If price fails to break that area in the next few weeks, then I think we could see a reversal from here to test resistance again.  Resistance comes in at the 0.8100 area, although it seems the short term test to 0.7750 support is more likely before a turn around of any real size.

 

 

 

 

GBPCHF 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview GBP/CHF Trading

The GBP/CHF has traded in into a long term weekly resistance in the 1.5500 area.  If this move does not move through this area quickly, then I will expect a retracement to start from here.  It could take 1-4 weeks for this scenario to play out yet.  So watching price around the 1.5480 – 1.5500 area will be key.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPJPY 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview GBP/JPY Trading

The GBP/JPY has just broken through the 175.00 long term resistance in the last few weeks.  This break up shows a possible move to test the 193.00 area of resistance on a monthly chart with continued JPY weakness in the coming months.   Should price move back under the 175 area, then a test of 165 resistance would be likely for the pair.

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview USD/JPY Trading

USD/JPY has been on fire the last couple months.  Both weekly and monthly charts appear to be in agreement on the direction and my target is set to 114 on this move in the next couple months.  However, 110 will be the area to watch for resistance on the daily price action as there will likely be some retracing on this move at some point.

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview USD/CAD Trading

The CAD has been an exciting one to trade as of late.  With moves from 1.00 to 1.12 and back to 1.07 and back this one has been a roller coaster for trades in the last year.  The weekly chart looks set to test the 1.1250 area of resistance again. Here the market will decide on if it will continue to test the old 1.14 area of resistance set in a few years back.

 

 

 

 

 

CADJPY 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview CAD/JPY Trading

CAD/JPY price has broke through long term resistant trend line.  Should price stay above the 96.50-97.00 area, 101 and 107 look like possible upside targets should the direction continue.

 

 

 

 

 

EURCAD 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview EUR/CAD Trading

Price has consolidated in the last month.  Could be looking at this pair making a reversal in the near term if these lows hold as support.   If not then 1.3825 is my next level to watch for on the downside.  It may take another week to get a clearer picture of direction on this pair.

 

 

 

 

 

AUDCAD 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview AUD/CAD Trading

Price is trading towards a long term monthly supporting trend line.  Support on this comes in at the 0.9700 area.  Should price move to  test the support, we will be watching for the decision on direction.   Both the CAD and AUD have been under pressure against the USD lately.  I think this could be a good area to watch for a reversal if you can find an entry with very little risk in the shorter time frame and get preventative quickly.

 

 

 

 

AUDNZD 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview AUD/NZD Trading

Currently trading in a long term monthly resistive area @ 1.1200.   Breaking through this area could mean price moving to the 1.1600 and possibly 1.2000 area’s in the coming months.

 

 

 

 

 

EURAUD1 300x241 Day Trading Course   Weekly Market Overview EUR/AUD Trading

Price is moving into weekly resistance.  A break through the 1.4550 – 1.4600 area could mean a move to test back to the 1.4800 and 1.5000 area.  While if resistance holds then we could see price move back into the 1.4250 – 1.4300 area, before continuing on.

 

 

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Price Action on the S&P500 Will we fall from here?

The S&P 500 has had some volatile price action that has had the Doom and Gloomers banging their economic pots and pans crying “this is gonna be the big one”.  Well, let’s take a look at the price action and see what could be in store if we stay with in a standard deviation or two and use technical analysis versus wild opinions and unfounded predictions.

 Price action bounce off of 50ma 277x300 Price Action on the S&P500 Will we fall from here?sp 500 day trading sp 500 Price Action on the 50MA is where we are seeing the bulls and bears fight over direction.

Possibilities for the day
Looking for a move to retrace but stay inside yesterdays real price
Do a 50% retracement of the buyer day, reverse and close higher
Stay with in the buyers real price and move higher up during the week
Extend Thursday’s Sell off and move to 1951
Sell off through support and touch 1930

If we stay above the 50MA, watch for the price action to leave us in a hammer with upside potential to 1990 and then a test on the top.

If price breaks below the 50 MA and previous days swing low, then watch for a possibility to move to next support of 1946,  If sellers do take control and there is no bid, we could see a further slide to to 1930.

There is a lot of tension in the world which could put pressure on these markets to sell further, if we see an escalation of ISIS or ISIL out side of Syria then we would look for a further slide.  Hong Kong is also putting some overnight pressure on the markets as there are Pro Democracy movements that could trigger the Chinese Government to label them as breaking the law.  It is doubtful we will see anything like Tainamen square but there could be some backlash.

Interesting how Ukraine has moved off the screen.

 

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Day Trading Oil

Day Trading Oil | Buy Oil or Sell Oil?

On weekly chart, we can see how the down trend line was useful for long position. But this time, it doesn’t look as good as it use to be.  But…how ever , we may have some amazing time to buy long, and retest last highs at 100.00 points.

Volume are also quite low, but this may also be due to Futures contract roll over. Is why I prefer to not take them in consideration.

 

hm…let’s see now on daily chart what we can see…

CL 11 14 Daily 23 10 2013 24 09 2014 300x157 Day Trading Oil | Buy Oil or Sell Oil?day trading course 2

Day Trading Oil Daily

Day Trading Oil | Buy Oil or Sell Oil?

Daily chart look amazing for long trade right now.  As we hit an important resistance at 91-92 points, we also breaking Lower-Low pattern, by creating an pregnant.

This trade are not hard to get it… if we break the Down trend, we are going back to 94$ at first.  ( 200 SMA). Once it will hit this level, we should expect some resistance, and then, we will see for next move.

This trade is a very risky one, since you going againt a trend. so make your proper decision carefully, especially if you trade cash!

 

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Multiple market trade report – trading bi weekly report EURUSD Dollar index Oil trading

MME Bi Weekly Trade Report September 17

 The EURUSD trade

Weekly chart shows price failure with the buyers moving in off of bottom closing in a hammer.

Hitting daily resistance, Inverse Head and shoulders could be forming.

Target 1.31 , Breaching trend line on the 1.2930 , Unsupported price 1.2945 to 1.2910

1 hour time frame we looking at a basing pattern breaking above the 50% (1.2960) 0f the pennant and testing the resistant daily trend line.

 

The Oil Trade

Oil daily and 1 hour break of weekly daily downtrend 9 16 300x105 Multiple Market Trade Report September 17

 

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Calgary, Alberta for immediate release – Calgary Day Trading Course

Calgary Day Traders, Alberta’s largest trading community supporting investors and traders from all backgrounds is inviting veteran trader Joel Wissing back to Calgary to conduct a three day trading course.

To learn more about the trading courses click here. Drayton Cook, the Calgary Day Traders group organizer addressed the press stating – “We have organized this 3-day workshop from September 13 to the 15th  with the aim of empowering Calgary traders in the art of trading and risk management. Mr. Joel Wissing will be using high impact learning activities to train the group in risk management, exact systems of entering trades and a full day of live trading on simulators to put everything we have learned to work. This is an amazing opportunity for investors as well as traders because Joel has trained institutional and retail traders for over 12 years. He trains people on refining their psychological edge which is 95% of the trading game.”

What will the Calgary Trading Course be studying?

MME new Trade Manual cover small 231x300 Calgary Trading Course   Sept 13  15Futures and major stocks will receive attention in the three day course, making it easier for day traders and stock traders to make decisions. Popular discussions include Apple Computer (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Baidu (BIDU), Visa (V), Exxon (XOM), and Lululemon Athletica inc. (LULU).

Previous participant Keith Bott goes on to say, “Being able to take advantage of trades when the market is going up, sideways or falling is a great advantage, buying and holding is from another generation and having the tools to make it happen will change your game.”

Whether beginner or advanced trader, all interested traders and investors can find out more about this 3-day live training by logging on to the official website of Calgary Day Traders, and be a part of this exclusive weekend trading 3-day workshop from September 13 to September 15 in Calgary, Alberta.

About Calgary Day Traders Calgary Day Traders is a community that has been striving to educate traders about the various facets of trading stocks, futures, and indices. There are over 230 members and growing all the time. Drayton Cook of the Calgary Day Traders can be reached at 866.640.3737  for those interested in joining them for their monthly meetings and this Calgary trading course.

September 13, 2014 9:00 to September 15, 2014 15:30

The Glenmore Inn & Convention Centre 2720 Glenmore Trail SE Calgary, AB T2C 2E6

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Corona, CA – Short term trades to long term profits is one of the Money Maker Edge™ major trade positions.

Writing to you today to understand money management and trading in a low volume summer.  Summer time trading can be very volatile.  That is “can be” but it mostly has a tendency to consolidate a chop around in a range.  The advantage for industry players is that they buy off of almost agreed upon support and sell into resistance.  This is called “taking the profit out of the market” , and is aimed at smaller investors and funds where their “Trade flow” is a source of income.  What that means is that they will make more money trading than on the profits in a trade, causing the fund to trade literally millions of times a day, to get a “fee” from the exchange.

Short term trading – multiple markets in the summer

For us, Summer is time to use small positions to build in to longer swing positions.  So we test the market with very limited risk to get into the market.  The goal is to catch a position that will be a long term hold and make a large return.  We test and test making trades and trades, most with only a very small loss or small profit as the market “chops” up and down before it get’s direction.  Before we catch one of these trades we can sometimes see a 1-3% change in our accounts.  Remember this is in a period of 3 to 6 weeks as we are working to get in a longer period swing trade.

Here is an example of a trade on the EURUSD.  Summer Chop finding the trade EURUSD 300x150 Short term trading to long term profitsWe held the position for about 6 weeks. The patter took 3 weeks to develop and during this time we had 5 positions which had a total cost of 1.2 penny on the account.  One of the trades with a minimum risk and good potential landed and we were able to take this for a 5 penny profit, about a 400% return on risk and a good return to the account.

We are trading multiple markets and searching for short term trades that can turn into swing and long term positions.  Our experience is that during the summer months until about the 15th of September we will experience low volumes and extended periods of consolidation.  Normally, (which is difficult to say with the present geo political climate) we will see more volume coming into the market and less consolidation from September through December.

It takes patience and the ability to manage your risk and stick to your rules to pull a consistent profit in this market place.

Another trade we are working on is the EURJPY or the Euro Yen trade.  The Chart is showing an inverted Head and shoulders.  There is a possibility of price breaking through the support so we have to wait for tests on support with weakness in order to catch the reversal to accelerate through the resistance that will give us the trade.

small risk and multiple entries until direction achieved 300x149 Short term trading to long term profits Classic Inverted Head and shoulders on the EURJPY

Consolidated entry zone with minimal risk, testing for direction.  Looking for direction to play out soon as this consolidated zone moves into  a tight squeeze.  Sometimes we will have to test 4-6 times to get the swing position.  Depends how long the consolidation takes to get the direction.

Summer time trading comes to an end.  We are also ready for this next season to start as we can see up to a 5% swing in the account if we have overextended periods of consolidation.   Still watching for US dollar strength and some more room on the Euro to correct.  Great if you are headed to Europe from the states but can also provide for a choppy market.

We have a few positive positions running as you can see in previous articles. USDDKK in profit, Facebook at risk, USDCHF in profit, AUDUSD in profit, Dollar index in profit. The trades in bold have a preventative stop.

 

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Forex Trading System

Last to weeks, after re-working on my trading system and plan… I take those positions. Since it go very well, and I`m still on, I decide to not take anyone this week, and more use my time, to follow carefully those ones.

So far…it look just amazing!

 

mme 14 09 09 13 47 15 USDZAR 300x127 Forex Trading Systemlearn how to trade

USDZAR

FOREX TRADING SYSTEM : USDZAR

Breaking the triangle pattern. It give me a nice continuation. Testing some tops right now. Should not be a big deal, since we get there with strong momentum.

Looking to hedge soon, to protect my profits, and then take another long position on USDZAR, if everything go well.

 

 

mme 14 09 09 13 49 03 GBPCAD 300x127 Forex Trading Systemlearn how to trade

GBPCAD

FOREX TRADING SYSTEM : GBPCAD

One I pairs I really like to trade now. Amazing potential to keep moving down for long time. Already amazing profits on.

We have some resistance also now, but is normal, since it go down so quickly.

 

 

mme 14 09 09 13 50 13 USDRUB 300x127 Forex Trading Systemlearn how to trade

USDRUB

FOREX TRADING SYSTEM : USDRUB

I love this pairs….low position on this one, but the potential for a continuation are very good.

After break all time highs, Will see if it will keep go up…or should I take out my position.

 

 

mme 14 09 09 13 48 19 USDCAD 300x127 Forex Trading Systemlearn how to trade

USDCAD

FOREX TRADING SYSTEM : USDCAD

This one was interesting to trade. After taking the short position, last week and making few profits on. I saw the Inverted Hand and Shoulds pattern, and decide to take the long one. It did pay off!

Now on USDCAD we also testing a strong resistance, if we break, is a home run for Very long time!

 

mme 14 09 09 13 49 39 USDNOK 300x127 Forex Trading Systemlearn how to trade

USDNOK

FOREX TRADING SYSTEM : USDNOK

One trade that go extremely well…and I was not expecting that much from it.

How every! we break a strong double tops.  What it means, it become a long term trades with lot`s of profits to take from!

 

 

 

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Toronto day trading course September 27-29

Toronto, Ontario, September 27-29, 2014 short term income and Long term appreciation day trading course with live day trading.

Money Maker Edge is holding a three day live seminar with live trading in Toronto, Canada  September 27-29 2014. We will have two days of intense training and one day of live trading with Joel Wissing.  The emphasis of the day trading course is to get foundation skills for Mastery, there is 13 weeks of follow up and a live trading room included so you don’t have to trade alone.

What is included in the course?

·  A business strategy in an easy to use template that we will help you with every quarter to stay on track.

·  You will have our trading code, a group of trade rules

·  Recording and quantifying results and keeping a trade journal

·  Precise Entry points

·  Price and Direction

·  Trade Strategy

·  Learn how to set daily targets.

·  Learn when to trade and when not to trade

·  Trading plan to move to profitability.

·  How to let the trades come to you.

·  Trading with targets and how to manage risk.

·  How to get your income, wealth and freedom trading.

·  How to spot the highest probability trade

·  Mastering your strategy

·  How to be responsible for your trading and level of choice in the market.

·  How would you like to know specific times to trade and not to trade.

·  We will train you to understand responsible trading practices.

·  The real working s of the market place and how to use these to your advantage versus being taken advantage of.

·  The difference between direction and hope in trading the S&P 500 and Multiple markets.

·  How to enter a trade and minimize risk so you don’t throw your money away.

We have found that relying on your memory to plan trading can lead you into a pattern of loss. Our system includes a trade journal which will keep you on track with the results of your trading to leverage your actual trading ability. You will also get the trade manual with the Money Maker Edge methodology and membership to our trade room where you trade live with other profitable traders that practice our methodology.

The Money Maker Edge S&P 500 live room’s day traders normally trade for less than an hour.  This trading room is open to all that have had the S&P 500 day trading course and most traders reach their daily goal in less than 45 minutes to an hour.  This trading room helps re enforce the trading methods we use and makes it easier for the beginning trader to see the trades and make better choices. This is open to all traders that have completed our course.

If you have any questions or for more information about the Toronto Ontario S&P 500 & Stock day trading course call Joel at 866-640-3737

You can see more on S&P 500 day trading course for S&P 500 emini futures at our website.  Online and live training room giving day traders a system and trading support. Trading with a group of profitable traders changes everything. Emini futures course and stock trading course focuses on trade mastery and practice where you take the course and you are able to trade.

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Since opening this trade in the beginning of July we have seen the USD take off and gain ground against most pairs.  The dollar index (another one of our trades) has also seen some fantastic gains since July and we are starting to look at some of these targets beginning to close.

USDDKK Update2 300x227 MME Managed Accounts   USD/DKK begins to close in on long term target

With the position being opened in the 5.4000 area, we now see that price has continued to move towards our long term target in the 5.7000 area.  As we move closer to this area we will be tightening up stops to avoid any loss on earned gains.  This trade will account for a very nice gain on our entire account in the last 8 weeks and as we close in on the target we will be looking at a few key factors in either taking the position out completely or extending the target to look for more profit.   This position started out with less than a 0.5% risk on accounts and at this point will pay many times that risk, even if taken out on a stop rather than the target.  However at this point in this trade the target seems a more likely exit than our trailing stop.

 

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USDCAD Update

USDCAD Weekly Week 35 2007 Week 34 2014 300x157 USDCAD Updatenews release USDCAD Update

Yesterday I was looking at USDCAD, and was mention that there’s a good short possibility. And to day, as I was tracking my chooses pairs, I decide to look on monthly chart, look each of pairs with another views.

And this what I saw…even if I still waiting, my short one, I’m also looking to take long trade. Basically I’m using an OCO order.

And on this chart, you can see the dominated trend. And the posibility for Long trade are also much more greater.

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Forex Trading What to Trade?

USDRUB Daily 26 11 2013 22 08 2014 300x157 Forex Trading What to Trade?news release USDRUB Daily Chart. This trade is an easy one, For direction short.

1st-  Testing double tops of all time highs again.

2nd- The second move are less impressive than 1st one. And it’s even more easy to see in volume.

3rd- USDRUB can’t pass the 35-36 area resistance. And we breaking the support line right now. If price go bellow 35.77 is a short one for me.

Enjoy your trading! This week we have few that are very easy to trade!

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

The ES e-mini and the S&P500 are at it again.  Closing this weeks trading into new highs the market has never seen before.  With price mere points away from closing the 2000 area and a 12 day run so far,  the S&P has truly been a buyers best friend.

With the weekly chart we can see how the S&P hit the supporting trend line and immediately turned around to run for the top.  With prices moving steadily up, and yet another push after this weeks FOMC release this market has not looked back since testing the 1900 support a couple weeks ago.

SP500Weekly 300x254 Day Trading Course   ES and S&P 500 is at it again

Should the S&P continue to trade to the resistive trend line on the weekly chart, price could see a break through the 2000 area in the next week or two of trading.   If price breaks through the 2000 area, I am expecting some profit taking to take place, however the high side target on the weekly shows 2015 as a good target for this move.   If price fails to move there are reverses I would expect to see the 1985 and 1970 area’s as target support.

 

Even though the S&P saw such incredible gains in trading these last few weeks, the dollar index has continued its upward trend as well and seems to have become completely uncoupled lately.  The USD has seen large gains across many other currencies the last few weeks signaling investors move to safety with current world conditions.  This would usually signal a move out of the stock market by investors, however this has not been the case as of late.

 

I currently have no position on in the S&P500 as I do not buy at the top.  I am currently long on the dollar index and and some usd currency pairs and have been for many weeks.    These trades are monitored closely and are largely in profit.

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Managed account live trade USDCAD entry – stop management

USDCAD trade preventative stop 300x197 Managed account live trade USDCADManaged Account USDCAD position taken today. Wanted to show the entry and the stop management in the managed account.  In this picture of my desktop you can see two charts the 4 hour USDCAD chart and the 5 min USDCAD chart.

The 4 hour chart looked like it was in the upswing on a “V” reversal pattern, and I was looking for a trade signal to get in this trade.  On longer term charts this could extend through this resistance at 1.09850 and move to an extension around 1.11 . Although I am not looking for this to happen in the course of the trading day, I am looking for this to swing through the swing high where we had a previous double top.

I got the entry I was looking for with Price failure and a continuation of the reversal  and was looking for momentum from buyers to move in after their pullback.  On the 5 min USDCAD chart on the right, you can see the entry slightly under the 200MA in red. The we get the first extension and a move in to a consolidation period to build more energy to complete this reversal.

I will post a follow up on the trade.

 

Managed account live trade USDCAD follow up.

USDCAD 40pips continuation to new high 300x268 Managed account live trade USDCADBreaking the top, as we approach the full reversal on the USDCAD completing the “V reversal” pattern. We will probably see a bit of consolidation at this level as the Psychological $1.10 is just around the corner. Price action does have momentum and buyers are in for the US dollar as you can see from Drayton’s post earlier and the long term trade on the Dollar index here.

As you might have noticed one of our practices is the Preventative stop, where we lock in profits and take risk out of the trade.  In the Managed accounts we employ this strategy to preserve our capital and although we will get kicked out of trades with a little profit, the ones that do play through have decreased our overall Beta to a minimum and increase our Net alpha/beta ratio dramatically.  Meaning, our home runs have large returns compared to our risk.

Will follow up with more on this trade later.

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

A few weeks ago I put up a post with some of our live positions.  Since then a few have been taken out on either positive stops or from targets.  Some however, such as the EUR/USD trade that I wrote about remain in and are continuing to keep the direction.

EURUSDweeklyUpdate 300x223 Managed Trading Accounts   EUR/USD Trade Continues

Since taking on our EUR/USD short position @ 1.3600 7 weeks ago we have seen the Eur push to test into continuing lows.  We saw it stall out in the 1.3350 area for a couple weeks, but now seems to be continuing the direction to the down side.  Currently price is pushing the 1.3300 area and with the break of support looks like it could continue the move down to the 1.3200 area and even possibly the 1.3000 area of support with some momentum in the next 4-8 weeks.

 

More strength in the USD has helped this pair continue the move, and with current eurozone news and economic conditions things seems to be pushing the pair back to test previous lows from the last couple years.  Currently this position sits at almost 300 pips of profit, with another possible 100-300 left in potential should it move to test our current target.  Should we close the current target area we will see a gain of about 5% on the entire account with this trade.

Currently we have positions on with the USD/CHF, USD/DKK, DOLLAR INDEX, AUD/NZD, and USD/JPY.  Also watching Gold / Silver and Indexes for entries on both short and long term time frames.

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

The US dollar trade is the flight to safety in the markets.

dollar index showing w pattern 300x248 Dollar Trade   flight to safetyThe US dollar is the flight to safety bellweather. This is a chart of what a “W Pattern” on the dollar index looks like.

The US Dollar Trade – W Pattern is a full reversal off of a major support.

The W pattern is a reversal pattern where the  price puts in a double bottom on decreasing volume approach on the second leg down.  This gave us a MME entry on the continuation with buyers in control.

There is a Fibinacci retracement scale set to check support and resistance.  We do not think that this will be a straight up move and are looking for more opportunities to get in on this pattern on the buyers side.

We are also in a preventative position on this long term trade.

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

EURJPY targetes Head and shoulders 8 12 300x149 Euro Yen trade   target taken   stop managementEuro Yen Trade placed in the evening and target taken in overnight session.

Euro Yen trading – Classic inverted head and shoulders pattern on the EURJPY Euro-Yen currency pair.  The Daily Chart on the left starting to show weakness on the test to the left hand swing low on the shoulder.  Once we saw the price failure we moved to lower time frames to search for an entry. When we completed the move down on the 15 minute chart and the reversal started accelerating we bought into the position.

The risk (beta) for the account was .1%, the return on the trade was .33% on the total account.  It was filled in the overnight session, so there was not chance to extend the target or add on.

Before the trade was left in the overnight session the stops were moved to a profitable position and the trade was left to mature.

The trading hours on the Euro Yen can start at 9:00 PM Eastern and continue through out the night.  The European markets open 6 hours later and can sometimes reverse the pattern or correct these overnight movements.  Then the US session opens and move of the same.  Either a reversal or continuation of the pattern.

Eur Yen can be quite volatile, so be careful if you are not use to this type of trading.  The currency markets have a tendency to take the profit out of the markets and even though it is the most widely traded international market, the small players can be fished out, especially in the lower volume markets.

If you have questions email me, or come to one of our courses.  Don’t trade alone.

 

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

EURUSD and Dollar index trade – Is this war? EURUSD and Dollar Index trade live 300x225 EURUSD and Dollar index trade   Is this war?

EURUSD and Dollar Index trade in live account

Just a look at the strength in the Dollar index and the weakness of the EURO. Showing both weekly trading charts. This trade was taken in the live trading account and we have been sitting on a positive position with a preventative stop. It seems with pressure in the middle east, we could see another pullback in the market like 1974 and 1990. It was normally after some invasion or use of millitary that kicked it off.

The previous market declines were around 20%. With the unraveling of the German market and the Russian politicking about to go full swing, there could be a bit of volatility hitting the market. Putin on one hand has been quite silent against all these “Sanctions” and it seems like it is his turn to move the chess pieces.

EURUSD TRADE has retraced 50%

You will notice that I have put in a full retracement pattern or a “V Pattern” for a full 100% retracement on both charts.  The EURUSD is showing a lot of weakness and there are a few things that could cause a major sell off.  Presently, we are at a 50 retracement on the EURUSD trade from swing lows.

Dollar Index Trade has retraced about 42%

So The US dollar index could be lagging for the change in the EURUSD.

How to Manage your stops?

You will also notice that our stops are in Profit, since these markets are traded 24 hours, we are able to keep the stops in and decrease our exposure in the trade.  The goal of trading is capital preservation, risk management and winning more than you loose.  With our stop management system, we are able to move from day trading positions into swing positions and some times into long term holds.

It is unfortunate but with the Quantitative easing, the market is severely over leveraged, Normally during these periods we would see a flight to safety and movements in the bond market, but instead we are seeing corporate bond selling and mixed commitment on the treasuries.

The Big Question – Is this a prelude to something bigger?  Will there be some economic trap coming out of Europe, will Germany’s market start to sell off as all the contracts out of Russia are being pulled.  Will Germany pull their commitments to EU which will cause further markets to implode?  Does Russia have something else in store for our markets with China – Iran?  Is the US bond market over leveraged and we will see a sell off in the bonds?  Will interest rates start moving up and collapse the US housing market?

Lots of Big Questions hanging on the precipice.  Trade what you see, and never follow anyone’s advice, this is a very risky market.

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Market weakness – short on the S&P500  live trading accounts.

sp500 short 1900 target 300x287 Market weakness Short on Indexes in live accountWe have placed a short on the S&P500 Index on the open this AM. On the open short on market weakness.

Short at 1940

1/2 taken off at 1926

Looking for a retrace to 1934 and then a continuation with an add on to lwer lows. around 1918 and if there is a sell off to 1900.

We have a preventative stop at 1938.50 locking in 9 points in the futures market.

I will update tomorrow.

Learning how to short the market when it is selling off is key in these type oof markets.  Trend trading is very profitable but being able to short the market from the tops, can  be very profitable very quickly.  Price will normally fall at least 10 times faster than a normal bulliisly trending market.

 

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

MME Trading Strategy – What is the difference between “The Cost of Business” and “The Cost of Being Right” in trading?

In trading there are many approaches to playing the game and how we limit risk and exposure while staying in the game and making money.    In trading our own and our clients money, we are vigilant in the pursuit of limited exposure on any and every trade.  This of course means using Stop Loss orders on every position, and that then means that they often get taken or “stopped out” of a trade.

MME Trading Strategy – always use a stop and a target.

“If you are trading and not limiting your risk it is better not to trade at all.” Joel Wissing 

SP5001min 300x205 MME Trading Strategy   The Difference Between the Cost of Doing Business VS the Cost of Being RightAnother way some do things is by leaving losing positions on while they move against them and either leave it until it “comes back”  or execute more trades on the same position to make up for lost equity.

I was confronted again with this very scenario yesterday when I was working on taking my long S&P500 emini trade.  My first entry on the position was early, and  the market moved to test further into support and “took my stop” in a matter of minutes.  Then a few minutes later I thought I had my entry.  Long I went again, with my stop loss in place I took on the position for  second time.  Then in a matter of minutes the market decided it was not yet done testing the support….  And there went another stop again!    Now let me be clear, I HATE losing money! Even more so when it is my clients!    So now I have cost us some money and not feeling good about it.  I have just stuck my hand in the shark tank twice and been bitten both times.  It Hurt.

MME Trading Strategy – Always have a written trading strategy.

Common sense would seem to dictate that if it hurts, don’t do it! Right?   Well the problem comes that I still see the trade in front of me saying “take me”!   Am I a sucker?  I just got stopped out twice and I do not want to lose anymore money for anyone today.  SO WHAT DO I DO?  Back in and Long I go at 1961.00 like a sucker!  Or am I?

“A trader must trade their plan, follow their system, or they are lost” Joel Wissing

Here is where things start to separate the boys from the men, the trader from the investor.  (Forgive the metaphor) Some would have moved or traded without stops, I could have done that.  Taken out the stops on my original Long position and let it run against me because I “knew” it would come back. (not following my plan)  It would even have saved me thousands of dollars on my stops and would still have gone into profits.  I was “right” in the end.  Wouldn’t that have been ok?  I would have only risked an unknown portion of the fund, been totally exposed to the market and left all of my clients money on the table on a single trade.   But that seems logical because you know you’re right.  Right?

Well obviously that isn’t the way we are trained to trade.  With every trade comes some amount of risk, it is finding the right amount that allows us to shrug it off and keep going. This is “The Cost of Doing Business in trading”.  I just had to find another opportunity to get in on the trade I saw.  This way, the account is always safe from too much risk, just sometimes it “costs a little bit to do some business” before the right one takes.

If you find yourself steering away from this type of trading strategy and going into trading without stops and targets, you are most likely trading to be right.  Which works sometimes (more likely just luck), but in the end seems to always catch up with you.  Buying into losing positions, trading outwith stops and targets, undefined entries into trades,  hanging on to losing trades, all signs of wanting to be right.  If even one of these trades got out of control, it could wipe out a large portion of an account, or even the entire thing.  Ever heard of a “margin call”?  That is essentially what it is.  The amount of the account is so far under that it needs more money to be able to hold its positions. Usually from only a bad trade or two that could have just been cut for a small loss instead of costing the whole account.  This is the difference between the cost of doing business and the cost of being right.  Every trader losses trades, just don’t let one or two cost your entire account. That is far too costly a price for being right.  euryen trade no risk in trade 10 to 1 300x234 MME Trading Strategy   The Difference Between the Cost of Doing Business VS the Cost of Being Right

Execution and consistency are key.  The ability to have courage to get back in even though you’re still hurting from the last one that didn’t work out.  Being able to Forgive yourself and move on quickly so it doesn’t get in the way of the next one.  Having the self esteem to move into the next trade with confidence, because you can “see the trade” in front of you and execute without hesitation. as well as having the consistency and commitment to keep going forward even when you may be struggling.  If you can do this , you will have a great chance at becoming a successful trader.

There is always a cost in doing business.  Trading is a business, and has it’s costs in operating so it can make money.  Managing the risk and the cost is the key.  Learning how to do that and applying what you learn will start you on your road to mastery.

Happy Trading

Drayton

 

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Managed Trading Account Futures and Forex Trading – Live Fund Positions Update SP500Daily 300x171 Managed Futures and Forex Trading   Live Fund Positions UpdateS&P 500 Futures Position

I took a long position yesterday on the S&P500 when it hit support.  We are long from 1961and targeting 1990-2000 with a break of resistance into new highs.  If it fails here we will take profit and close out for about 3% on the account in 24hrs.

 

 

 

EURAUDposition 300x171 Managed Futures and Forex Trading   Live Fund Positions Update

EUR/AUD Position

I have been short the Euro since last week.  Got bumped out of the original short position, but I got back in the end of last week.  With support breaking here we could see the EURAUD tumble to the 1.4100 area as there is very little support between this area and my target.

 

 

EURUSDSHORT 300x171 Managed Futures and Forex Trading   Live Fund Positions UpdateEUR/USD Position

I have been short the EURUSD for about a week now. With a break of support here we could see the euro move to the 1.3200 – 1.3100 area for the next part of this move. EURUSD live position in managed trading accounts.

 

 

 

USDCHFposition 300x171 Managed Futures and Forex Trading   Live Fund Positions UpdateUSD/CHF Position

I have been long the USDCHF for a couple months now.  I took my original position on months go and now a couple weeks ago added to it as the dollar was showing good signs of starting to strengthen again.

 

 

 

 DDIWEEKLY 300x170 Managed Futures and Forex Trading   Live Fund Positions Updateollar Index Position

A couple weeks ago I took on  long position on the dollar index right around the same time as I added to my USD/CHF position.  US dollar is starting to show strength against most currencies now and dollar continues to look strong for the coming weeks in my opinion.     That is most of my positions at the moment.  Almost all of these positions have been taken with only about a 0.5% risk of account capital.  Yet many of them will return 3,4,5 or even more on the account. Keep in mind this is on the entire account balance, not just the position, many of those are up in the 100′s% return on capital used.

Managed Trading Account Preventative Stops moving into profit so exiting trade only in profits

– Also, these positions are “risk free”.  All of these positions are guaranteed profits without loss, a very nice position for our trading clients to be in.  This ensures safety of capital (capital preservation) and allows us to make money without risking any capital at all. MME™  Managed Futures and Forex Trading Fund.  If you think this kind of thing could be right for you, click the link for more info to see if this is something you would like to compliment your portfolio.  Happy Trading!

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

Euro Yen trade entered the am off of support.

euryen trade no risk in trade 10 to 1 300x234 Euro Yen trade preventative stop“How do you manage stops on a currency trade?” is a question I am often asked.

Forex and Currency trading has a lot of volatility.  It is a very large market and the settings are quite different than Index Futures trading or equities.

This is a trade between the Euro and the Yen – Euro Yen trade or the EURJPY trade.  We entered the trade with a bounce off of support and loss of momentum.  When the Euro Yen started to consolidate between 136.93 and 137.050 started a search for an entry off of the bottom of the price range.

When the pattern formed, we entered the trade with a stop just below the swing low of 136.920 .  The stop was then moved into a profitable position when we had 6 pips of profit built into the trade.  This is a very tight stop, but it is in profit, so there is no cost to the account.  The sizing is appropriate for the risk.  There is a very high probability this stop will be taken in this consolidation zone, if it does, it will be in profit with no cost to the account.  If it does not take the preventative stop then the target is at a 1 to 10 risk to reward ratio with no risk in the trade.

Psychology and System Trading in the Euro Yen pair

Trading is a lot like tennis.  You have to be able to stay in the game, and that is why the most important factor to capital preservation is risk management.  We can literally take an unlimited number of trades when we are able to move our stops in to profit.  Since our short term trades transform to swing trades 20% of the time, being able to leverage the probabilities for success while managing tight stops create many opportunities for profit.  Remember to always follow your rules for risk management, trade execution and setting targets.  If you are trading on the fly with out a written trading plan, you are gambling.  Consider your trading as a business.  Always use a written strategy as you will have a tendency to react to circumstances versus follow a plan.  This is one of the biggest hurdles traders, even professional traders face, following a written plan.  If you can’t write the Entry, Risk Management and the targets down – Don’t make the trade.

 

This Euro Yen trade was taken in our manage trading account, and is only shown as an example of managing your stops in a currency or forex trade.

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DX 09 14 1440 Min 11 08 2014 300x157 US Dollars Hitting 81.80 whats next!?day trading glossary

dollars us

US Dollars Hitting 81.80 what’s next!?

Dollars US looking for resistance, in exact area I was expect. This is also,my reversal point. But…look on how thing are going now, buyers having lot’s of momentum, and we could see US Dollars jump to 82.00, before any retracement.

It will or not happen, doesn’t really matter, since it will retrace soon, and then go back to 81.700 or 82.00 area. depending if we hit or not 82.00 points.

 

dx resistnace 300x157 US Dollars Hitting 81.80 whats next!?day trading glossary

trading us dollars

On his 4hours chart, we can see how thing go for buyers and sellers.

At first, we was in Bullish trend that bring the US dollars to 81.600 points.

Then, we start to see some resistance, and buyers fail to go to news highs by creating triple tops area.

Now, Sellers break the bullish trend, But there’s no confirmation for Bearish trend move so far.

What’s Next? Well…watch for 50% retrancement, to my red area….if there’s no retracement, that was a head fake, and we are going to 82.00 area.

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

EUR Update 300x207 Managed Forex Trading   EUR/USD TradingEUR/USD Trading

The Euro EUR/USD  has been on a decline for the last little while, falling against almost every currency it is trading against.   That coupled with some strength coming back into the dollar recently has made for another run at the bottom of the long term pennant that I wrote about a couple weeks back.

In my last article I pointed out the classic “Death Cross” technical signal the market was giving with the 50 day MA crossing below the 200.   Since then the pair has been on a 200 pip decline, testing into the 1.3500 area early this morning.

The EUR/USD support.

1.3500 is a major area of support right now.  A break through this area and I will be looking to target 1.3100 and 1.3000 as potential area’s for this move to take price.   If support holds here then we could see price move back to the trend line before continuing down, or making a move back towards the 200 day MA back at 1.3600-1.3650 area.  I am short the Eur/Usd from 1.3600 and adding to this position carefully with stops and targets in place at all times.  From here I believe if we see price move down and close beneath the 1.3500 area in the next week or so, we will be in for a fantastic move with direction.

Trading the EUR/USD is high risk and traders would be best not to trade unless they have sufficient experience and understand risk management.  This is not a suggestion to trade or advice.  Trade the the EUR/USD at your own risk and get some training if you don’t know what you are doing.

 

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oil cl 300x157 Oil Hit resistance 97.00 back to 100.00oil trading 2 Oil Hit resistance 97.00 back to 100.00

1. Oil are in Down Trend. What make, Up trend more risky. And is why this trade especially, are high risk.

2. After hitting a natural resistance at 97.00 on Oil. Market start to consolidate. So far we don’t see any strong buyers, but it should come very soon. If it doesn’t, seller may break the 97.00 resistance and then create news highs.

3, There’s are many resistance, you can see in this area. The fact, sellers fail to close under 97.00, and create an Inverted H&S pattern. It make this trade interesting.

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AUDNZD now

AUDNZD FOrex trading

The entry for should should be very soon.

Watching this pair, to get at the right price.

right now, we maid a retracement of 50% since last drop. Looking for short there.

PS: be ready to get out if don’t pass green trend line.

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Trading futures SP500 weakness – the start of a major correction?

SP500 weakness end of month profit taking 266x300 TradingFutures SP500 weakness   the start of a major correction?sp 500 Trading futures on this past weeks news normally wouldn’t have any one selling this type of widely held market. The unemployment data was good, everything seemed to be in line, yet there was weakness going in to the latter part of the week with lower and lower buyer volume.

S&P500 emini futures is at a major support before a continuation to 1900 and a further sell off target of 1865.  If the buyers do step in for a partial retracement we are looking for levels at 1935-37 for resistance.  If there is some seller’s pressure from the Asian markets and a weak open in Europe we could see the markets hit resistance at 1931 and head lower.

Trading futures is very risky.

Make sure you have practiced and know what you are doing.  There are many settings in the market place which you can see the tendencies of the market.  Watch for a quick reversal in the AM.  Although there was large selling volume, we don’t know if this was capitulatory and we could see heavier selling.  There is a good chance sellers will test the previous swing lows.

We have marked a few of the areas for support and resistance and looking for basic patterns to swing through these.  The previous major sell off gave us a 120 point swing.  Price action consolidated for a few days then made the second move down before continuing the long term bullish trend.

Don’t forget, we are in a Bull trend, for the long run and we have yet to invalidate the trend or give  a clear topping pattern.  Trading futures with a group that speaks the same trading language and has the same trading psychology training creates a very collaborative environment.  Join us in Calgary or Montreal this fall.

 

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Day trading course S&P 500 Managed Trading Accounts –

SP4HRentryJuly 11 300x248 Live Futures and Forex Trading   S&P500 Live PositionS&P 500 Trading

After the bounce around on last weeks FOMC.  I got in on the long side of the S&P looking for a decent swing. I entered at the 1951 area first, with another entry a day later at 1956.25.

 Day Trading the S&P500

Both positions are now sitting in a Preventative state.  Targets are in at 1970-75, and then at 2000 if the S&P chooses to go into more new highs again.

 

I will see what this week will bring.  I am long on silver from last week, however I am watching it closely as it and gold could be setting up for a test back down.  We are watching, Gold / Silver, Eur/Jpy, Usd/Jpy, and Eur/Usd.  We were missed on our long entry for the Usd/Cad last week, so also watching that pair for confirmation of direction.

Join us in Calgary this September.

 

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Day Trading Forex System

Like in anything else, if you don’t have any system, you will fail.

Everyone are welcome to join MoneyMakerEdge course to learn in 3 days how to trade and be profitable in market where 98%fail.

A joke? no, trading is like anything else, a learning skill. And like anything else, you want to learn from the best!

#October 4-6 Day Trading course at Montreal!

US Dollars – Day Trading: Didn’t take this trade, I actually asking my self why?! ..but the analyze was perfect.

us dollar step 1 2 150x150 Day Trading Forex Systemlearn how to trade 14 07 30 12 14 06 DOLLAR INDEX 150x150 Day Trading Forex Systemlearn how to trade

CADCHF – Forex Trading. …watching this one live right now… let’s see if it will bounce back, or continue

CADCHF Daily 07 03 2014 28 07 2014 150x150 Day Trading Forex Systemlearn how to trade cadcfh 150x150 Day Trading Forex Systemlearn how to trade

USDJPY – LOVE IT…was trading since long time, by taking quick small trade, and finally it look like I catch the Break Out!

6J 09 14 1440 Min 29 07 2014 150x150 Day Trading Forex Systemlearn how to trade usd jpy update 150x150 Day Trading Forex Systemlearn how to trade

GBPUSD – last position, doing great! let’s keep it this way

6B 09 14 1440 Min 29 07 2014 150x150 Day Trading Forex Systemlearn how to trade gbpusd 1 150x150 Day Trading Forex Systemlearn how to trade

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050504 2 300x146 Stock Market Cycleeconomy

trading market

but this answer cost money…unless your not ready to pay for…can’t tell you

ES 09 14 1440 Min 29 07 2014 300x157 Stock Market Cycleeconomy

DAy Trading course

Stock Market Cycle Daily SP500 Chart

This chart look like the one above. But, the difference, is that, it did not make to new highs. This indicate a potential change of direction.

If sellers break this short term Up trend market, market should go back to last lows at 1900.00

 

So…When is the Big time to Sell to make Lot’s of millions?! …sorry but if it’s your way to think, your should try Casino.  Trading is a business, when done properly (and this is not hard) , you can make a constance results, and money. And money will growth with the equivalence of your Money conscience maturity.

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Free 270x300 Day Trading Montreal Course October 4 6training day trading course 2

Trading Gold

Day Trading Montreal Course October 4-6

Become independent from any economic situation by knowing how to trade in the market. Like any others life skills, trading are a skill that anyone can learn and master it.
Stop paying highs fees to your banker who end by miss managing your money but ending with highs profits every month by miss managing Your Money!
Get financially educated and learn How to Make Money in any economics situation!

Day Trading Montreal Course October 4-6

Become independent from any economic situation by knowing how to trade in the market. Like any others life skills, trading are a skill that anyone can learn and master it.
Stop paying highs fees to your banker who end by miss managing your money but ending with highs profits every month by miss managing Your Money!
Get financially educated and learn How to Make Money in any economics situation!

– See more at: http://www.moneymakeredge.com/blog/day-trading-course-2/day-trading-montreal-course-october-4-6-2/#sthash.Wb7qrIB6.dpuf

 

GC 08 14 60 Min 28 07 2014 300x157 Day Trading Montreal Course October 4 6training day trading course 2

trading course montreal

FREE TRADING TIPS on Gold daily Chart

Gold Looking for a break Out! Time to make money!

1. Those two bearish trend show that gold,are in bearish trend now.

2. By creating news highs, and having two point. I can create an extended potential Bullish trend.

3. This is a Flag. And gold are at the end of this Flag, what will give us a break out from Down or Up.

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Day trading course S&P 500 Day traders S&P 500 live room. –

The S&P Opened this morning to test up quickly and provide a nice entry on a short on our managed account.  Looking to the S&P’s Wild sideways trading these last few weeks / months, there has been many trading days with fantastic ranges of 20 points or even more.

Live SP500Entry2 300x228 Day Trading Course   S&P 500 Tests Daily Support Again

On the daily chart, price is again testing the support at the 50 Day MA.  If this holds we could likely see the reversal again.  If we do manage to break it, it opens up more downside targets for us.  Current targets include the previous swing low around the 1845 area, then down to 1840 and 1825 if we continue through.

Live SP500Entry 300x228 Day Trading Course   S&P 500 Tests Daily Support Again

My Day trade is so far going nicely, with a short entry at 1867,25 this morning I am now watching to see if this move will have the commitment to continue down from here.  Currently we are trading at 1860 area.  Let’s see if the sellers can take this further?  or will the buyers jump back in as they like to do to keep price above this support?

 

Trade what you see.

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Silver Break Out in Few Weeks!
silver bullion.thumbnail Silver Break Out in Few Weeks!trading psychology

…and yes, silver are under stress price again. With buyers failing to close the gap (the day is not end but…still…), I’m expecting to see sellers sell, and retest last low price range. the only think what make me think they will fail. it’s because , the last time sellers get in the market, they fail to touche lower bearish trend line.

Post from: Day trading course – S&P 500 Day Trading Coach

Silver Break Out in Few Weeks!

share save 171 16 Silver Break Out in Few Weeks!trading psychology

What is Wall Street more interesting in saving? US Stock Market or the Dollar?

stock Market Funny 300x210 What is Wall Street more interested in saving? US Stock Market or Dollar?financial terrorism

stock market trading

After creating a major resistance at 1600, 1700,1800 and now 1900 will be the next level of resistance? from what I can see so far, (the day is not end but..), S&P500 are aiming for 1940.00. So I guess…WallStreet are more interesting to save the Stocks Market that they Dollar…who are looking to make new lows. This is what happen when you try to make many lies….at the end , whatever way you chose to take, you will be cough in your own lies!

us dollar 300x210 What is Wall Street more interested in saving? US Stock Market or Dollar?financial terrorism

us dollar trading

And there you go, let’s re-test last time this “red-resistance”? ….there’s still few price that can save US Dollars for little bit, but…is just matter of time, unless if Stocks Market start to fall, and people will go back to US dollar holding. They only problem, is when Stocks Markets was correcting, and retesting Strong Bullish support, they US Dollars did not really move by that much, and always stay above 82-81 price. Is maybe why they prefer to keep put steroids in Stocks Market, since no-one are really trusting Us dollar(from what it did shows).
There’s still few prices resistance that can save US dollar, but it will be hard, since the sellers on Dollar are creating very strong move down vs buyers who have so much trouble to move the price up.

And for the latest news of unemployment rates that fall to 6.3% , with low wages…it remind me the Crash Stocks Market in years of 1928, when people was ready to get any jobs for 50% to 80% the normal salary wage. This is sad, in way that people will need to work twice more, for same price, and for twice longer. And if you look this in much more bigger way….if parents can’t even educate they kids by working both 40hours a day, how they will educate them by working 60 or 80hours a day? And the worst part, I found on my facebook pages, that shows an article : http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/aug/21/bank-intern-death-working-hours , where a man dies from working, and that employes had to singe a form, where they agree to working above the legal hours establish. There’s much more can be said , but this is an about of what are happening now….

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What is Wall Street more interested in saving? US Stock Market or Dollar?

share save 171 16 What is Wall Street more interested in saving? US Stock Market or Dollar?financial terrorism

What does Wall Street are more interesting to save? they US Stocks Market or they Dollar?

stock Market Funny 300x210 What does Wall Street are more interesting to save? they US Stocks Market or they Dollar?financial terrorism

stock market trading

After creating a major resistance at 1600, 1700,1800 and now 1900 will be the next level of resistance? from what I can see so far, (the day is not end but..), S&P500 are aiming for 1940.00. So I guess…WallStreet are more interesting to save the Stocks Market that they Dollar…who are looking to make new lows. This is what happen when you try to make many lies….at the end , whatever way you chose to take, you will be cough in your own lies!

us dollar 300x210 What does Wall Street are more interesting to save? they US Stocks Market or they Dollar?financial terrorism

us dollar trading

And there you go, let’s re-test last time this “red-resistance”? ….there’s still few price that can save US Dollars for little bit, but…is just matter of time, unless if Stocks Market start to fall, and people will go back to US dollar holding. They only problem, is when Stocks Markets was correcting, and retesting Strong Bullish support, they US Dollars did not really move by that much, and always stay above 82-81 price. Is maybe why they prefer to keep put steroids in Stocks Market, since no-one are really trusting Us dollar(from what it did shows).
There’s still few prices resistance that can save US dollar, but it will be hard, since the sellers on Dollar are creating very strong move down vs buyers who have so much trouble to move the price up.

And for the latest news of unemployment rates that fall to 6.3% , with low wages…it remind me the Crash Stocks Market in years of 1928, when people was ready to get any jobs for 50% to 80% the normal salary wage. This is sad, in way that people will need to work twice more, for same price, and for twice longer. And if you look this in much more bigger way….if parents can’t even educate they kids by working both 40hours a day, how they will educate them by working 60 or 80hours a day? And the worst part, I found on my facebook pages, that shows an article : http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/aug/21/bank-intern-death-working-hours , where a man dies from working, and that employes had to singe a form, where they agree to working above the legal hours establish. There’s much more can be said , but this is an about of what are happening now….

Post from: Day trading course – S&P 500 Day Trading Coach

What does Wall Street are more interesting to save? they US Stocks Market or they Dollar?

share save 171 16 What does Wall Street are more interesting to save? they US Stocks Market or they Dollar?financial terrorism

Day Trading Stocks Market | Trading Double Top
transfert natural up arrow down arrow arrows Day Trading Stocks Market | Trading Double Topnews release
This is a stock I found that can be busted very soon by sellers. It have a perfect double top with an Overbought price level. This stock will be an amazing to trade and short for next weeks and months.

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Day Trading Stocks Market | Trading Double Top

share save 171 16 Day Trading Stocks Market | Trading Double Topnews release

Critical Alerts for Investors and Traders in Stocks Market
 Critical Alerts for Investors and Traders in Stocks Marketnotes to my traders
Critical Alerts for Investors and Traders in Stocks Market
visit: www.MoneyMakerEdge.com/blog
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT: DO NOT TRADE CASH IF YOU HAVE NO EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE!
was waiting this day end …Why! WATCH THIS VIDEO!
Critical alerts for investors to know if should sell or keep buying, make sure you get your advice from right person. and Traders it will be a Amazing day for taking positions….but like for investors, with no education, you should never trade cash in Stocks Market , Forex …

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Critical Alerts for Investors and Traders in Stocks Market

share save 171 16 Critical Alerts for Investors and Traders in Stocks Marketnotes to my traders

Day Trading Google | Stocks Market Trading Free Education
trading education Day Trading Google | Stocks Market Trading Free Educationstock trading 2 day trading course 2
After Google being over Bought, and sellers trap buyers in a pattern of ” Coolie hat”, to take all they profits back in they pockets.
But, Google stop bleeding just at the right time, before it fill the gap, what would be very bad for buyers….see more in the Free educative video.

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Day Trading Google | Stocks Market Trading Free Education

share save 171 16 Day Trading Google | Stocks Market Trading Free Educationstock trading 2 day trading course 2

Day Trading in Ukraine crisis | Crude oil price
As Oil price change after every news because of “Ukraine Crisis”, By knowing how to trade in real life, you can be prepare to take the right decisions and make good profits from Crude Oil Price.
Crude Oil Day Trading in Ukraine crisis | Crude oil priceeconomy

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Day Trading in Ukraine crisis | Crude oil price

share save 171 16 Day Trading in Ukraine crisis | Crude oil priceeconomy

Stocks Market | Dow Jones Industrial Day Trading
 Stocks Market | Dow Jones Industrial Day Tradingday trading course 2
Last week, we mention about Shorting possibility in Dow Jones Industrial Indexes. On this video you can see what you can do next if you did take this short trade, or if not, when is the next opportunity of making money

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Stocks Market | Dow Jones Industrial Day Trading

share save 171 16 Stocks Market | Dow Jones Industrial Day Tradingday trading course 2

Day Trading US Dollars to go Lower than 78.0?

US 5 Series 2006 obverse 300x126 Day Trading US Dollars to go Lower than 78.0?day trading course 2

trading dollar

Day Trading US Dollars to go Lower than 78.0?

this move I was looking for since few month, I mention about US Dollar going to last bottoms at 78-76 area. Look like my “M” pattern will be completed sooner or later. What very interesting, as stock market start to correct, US dollar do not increase in value…this is very not good for US economy.

 

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Day Trading US Dollars to go Lower than 78.0?

share save 171 16 Day Trading US Dollars to go Lower than 78.0?day trading course 2

Apple Stock Price | Day Trading Stocks Market

apple earning date 300x110 Apple Stock Price | Day Trading Stocks Marketstock trading 2

Apple Stock Price | Earning date 24th April 2014

This stock are going in a very small range now. And after to see Apple stock bouncing on 200MA daily, and buyers don’t let sellers support apple stock price under 516.00$ it seems like buyers are quite confident on Apple stock earning date , witch it’s the 24th April 2014. Click On video to watch more about!

 

 

 

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Apple Stock Price | Day Trading Stocks Market

share save 171 16 Apple Stock Price | Day Trading Stocks Marketstock trading 2

Day Trading DJIA 21-25 April 2014

Sellers are very strong, and buyers are quite weak. On this video I will use DJIA on daily chart. Why? Very clear direction and targets for next week. And great potential for make some cash!

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Day Trading DJIA 21-25 April 2014

share save 171 16  Day Trading DJIA 21 25 April 2014day trading course 2

Chicago- CME Silver traders showing decreasing commitment in futures market.

silver showing weakness next levels Silver trading showing weaknesssilver trading
Silver has been in a very tight consolidated trading zone with a smaller range on the weekly charts. As price breaks below 19.50 we see there are no large buyers entering the market on the Silver futures contract. The volume on silver has also dropped off as institutional traders and large traders have decreased their holdings. Silver has been in distribution since mid 2011.

The next level of support for Silver is 14.80 to  17.50, although this is a wide trading range we can see that the previous price action bounced from this area to start the run up in September 2010 that led to the parabolic move up in 2011.

If silver does break through the resistance at $21.00 the next upside targets will be close to $25.00 . The chop (moving from support to resistance back and forth) has been exhausting for most traders as they are looking for the break out in this extremely tight range.

Silver can be very volatile and since there is light volume be very careful as it is easy to shoot out stops.

Never trade Silver unless you are using purely risk capital.  Silver has many margin calls on positions that aren’t monitored.

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Silver trading showing weakness

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Day Trading Course S&P500

 

Day Trading Course S&P500: Learn how to trade any market. THIS IS THE TIME! SELLERS ARE BACK

 

 

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Day Trading Course S&P500

share save 171 16 Day Trading Course S&P500day trading course 2

Crude Oil has been on a run the last few days.  Following a test of the 50 day MA oil has moved back to the upside on a fantastic run to touch into the 104.00 area.

OilEntryDailyCrude

I took on my long position at 101.50 for a daily / weekly swing trade.   If price moves to break the 104.50 area of resistance then we could be looking at oil moving back to test previous highs set a few months back at the 107 and even 110 areas.

 

Stop is in at a break even position for the moment.  I am watching price as we close the week and move into trading early next week.  With a move up we could see the test of the 107 area, if resistance holds I will likely take out a good portion of the position or even all of it depending on price action.

 

Trade what you see, I’ll see you at the starting line!

Gold trading make or break price action.

Gold Make or Break price patterns 300x259 Gold trading   make or break price actiongold trading 2 Even though there is overall weakness in the stock market which normally has an inverse relation to the gold markets, we are seeing a bearish pattern in the technical charts.

Gold buyers have been very weak in this move up. Although the US and world markets this week have mostly seen a correction. As you can see in this chart of NUGT which very sensitive and volatile compared to gold futures prices, we have created a bear flag. This means the market has sold from $60 to $33 a share then recovered back to 43. We are not seeing any commitment on the buyers side and as you can see the supporting trend line is about to be tested as sellers have moved in and could be taking control again.

On the sell side the targets we are looking for is $33.95 this will be initial support on the move down. It would not be unusual to see it Chop in this area from $33-39 with highs to $43. If support holds here at $398 then we would be looking fro a continuation to $44 and then a further move to $49 which is the 200MA or the 200 day moving average.

There are many outside variables effecting gold pricing. What goes on in the Ukraine this next week could be more of a determinate than the correction in US stocks. We shall see.

Trading Gold, Gold miners in either futures or ETF’s is extremely volatile. Do not trade it unless you have spent time studying the charts and have risk capital. Risk capital is money that if lost will not hurt your financial future. For many people buying and holding physical gold is an easier position as it normally turns out to be a long time hold.

Trade at your own risk level.

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Gold trading – make or break price action

share save 171 16 Gold trading   make or break price actiongold trading 2

The S&P sold off again today, to touch to the 1825.00 area of support before closing.   I think tomorrows trading could be a key indicator to see if this move could continue.  If the market can give us a close tomorrow below the 1825.00 area then we could see this continue down to touch the 1800 area next week.

 

I took on my short position last week back at 1879.50, with an original target of 1850.00 on the move.  With the move we saw to that area, I took out a portion of my position at the 1859.00 area to capture a nice 20 points, but left the rest of that position on for the possibility of a continuation further.  That choice seems to be paying nicely with today’s sell off but will tell me more with where we see the market go tomorrow.

S&P500EntryDaily

A great target now is the 1800.00 area of support as that is the level of the long term bullish trend line on a daily and weekly chart.  Should price move to touch that area in the next couple trading days or so then I would look for the bounce there to start a possible reversal and test back up again.

 

If  we break that area of support at the 1800 level then we could be looking at this market perhaps making a longer term reversal going into the summer months.  With May upon us in a few short weeks, this could be the set up for the seasonal summer reversal to take us into the fall trading again.

 

Trade what you see, I’ll see you at the starting line.

New York – Head and Shoulders pattern emerging in the Dow Jones Transports

Dow Jones Transports could roll over on Head and Shoulders 297x300 Head and Shoulders Roll Over Trading a thin market.technical trading patterns Watching as the light volume on the buyer side with the increasing volume on the sellers side is creating a head and shoulders on the Dow Jones Transports. For many the Dow Jones Transports are considered the leader for the S&P500 and Nasdaq. Will be watching for the consolidation to continue at these price levels.

The first area of support was touched this past week with two more areas of support at 7380 and 7250 but breaking through the first level of support could prove difficult. As you can see the uptrend is still in tact in the long term and the market players have not distributed in high enough volume to cause a sell off. If we sell to 1390 this could signal an increase in seller commitment to break through the support.

I am looking for this to chop around in this first area of support and resistance and further establish this Head and shoulders trading pattern. There is a good chance that the market will move up again on light volume. This could create the perfect storm for the sell off.  Especially with some geo political considerations thrown in.

Gold Trading – Gold in the ETF GLD is showing a bear flag.

gold in a bear flag gold trading 300x253 Head and Shoulders Roll Over Trading a thin market.technical trading patterns Gold is creating a Bear Flag on the daily chart. We are looking at the gold ETF GLD.

Gold has it its first area of resistance off the move down from 133.80 to 123 with the retracement back to 127-128 area.  if buyers don’t step up to move this to the 50 % retracement mark at 128.40 then we could see the bear flag execute with a move back to 123.00 which would be a midterm double bottom that would be also violating the uptrend at around 125.20.

Unless Ukraine heats up over this next week I am expecting this to follow the bear pattern to 123.00 and if sellers are in control that break could lead to a sell into the major support at 118.

If the Ukraine does heat up we could see this bounce through to 129.60 and then go for a double top in the midterm and completing the 100% retracement.

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Head and Shoulders Roll Over Trading a thin market.

share save 171 16 Head and Shoulders Roll Over Trading a thin market.technical trading patterns

Day Trading USD/CAD SHort

usd cad 300x210 Day Trading USD/CAD SHortday trading course 2

Day trading USD/Cad

DAY Trading USD/CAD

CAD/USD , a nice trade I’m still on. Looking to take some good profits on this one.

After clearly passing the 1st test line, USDCAD are moving to the 2nd test. Witch should not be hard to pass, since is a week one especially with the high volatility we moved down to day.

But how ever, if sellers don’t support price under 1.0940 , I will get out from this trade. if they do…it will be  a home run to the 200MA , witch also my target

 

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Day Trading USD/CAD SHort

share save 171 16 Day Trading USD/CAD SHortday trading course 2

I have taken on a couple new positions in the last couple days.  Here is a short list of what I am looking at right now.

GBPUSDdailyEntry

GBP/USD – Short on the GBP at the moment.  Entry at 1.6633 with a good move down through the 50 day MA yesterday.   Looking at a target of around 1.6500 at the moment if this continues.  Stop is in at a zero positions so there is no risk of any loss on this trade.  Current support at 1.6565.

USDJPY4hrEntry

USD/JPY – I am currently long on this pair.  Could be looking at a very long term position on this one.  Maybe as long as a couple months if it continues in the bullish direction.  Risk on the trade is very little, limited to less than 1% of account.

EURAUDentry4hr

Eur/Aud – I just took on a short position, price looks to be breaking through the 200 day MA for a possible bearish continuation trade.  First watch will be for price to test out the previous low around the 1.4780 area.  A break of that support will show good reason for a further drop in price.  Currently trading at 1.4860.

USDCHFdailyEntry

USD/CHF – I initiated a long position on the pair looking at the possibility of a retracement from the previous move down.  This move seems to have lost its momentum and looks ready to retrace back to the upside.   Entry at .8850, First target at 0.9020. Currently trading at 0.8912

Crude OilRetrace4hr

Crude Oil – Just an update on my position from earlier in the week.  In a short term bounce right now, Positive stop is still in place and waiting to see if this move will continue down or reverse.  4hr shows price resistance in the  100.20 area right now.

S&P5001hrEntry

S&P 500 Futures Day Trade – Short position in on a daily time frame.  I went Short with 10 contracts at 1879.25 on good sellers volume.  Current target in at 1870.00, but could extend or close some of the position depending on how it plays into the end of today’s trading session.  Currently trading at 1876.25.

That’s all for now, more to come as they happen.  Happy Trading!

Silver on the break out Level!

silver jump up 300x168 Silver on the break out Level!notes to my traders trading psychology

silver jump up Or crash down

Hey Traders a quick one about silver price.

On monthly Chart we are approaching to the end of the pennant. and as result we should get a strong break out from one side or another one.

On weekly chart, Silver looking to retest bottom one more time, and if fail, retest the downtrend….and keep going this way till we get a break-out.

For targets, long will be 27$ at least , and for short one, at 15$. Will be very interesting to see how gold will react on this move Up or Short and $US dollars

 

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Silver on the break out Level!

share save 171 16 Silver on the break out Level!notes to my traders trading psychology

Gold | Silver buyers zone but buyers are…

gold buyers faillling 300x196 Gold | Silver buyres zone but buyers are...gold trading 2

gold buyers zone

Gold | Silver buyers zone but buyers are..

We can see buyers are starting coming back, but failing to move up…at one point I don’t blame after get caught in double trap by sellers. Quite normal to have a certain range on consolidation…before the price will restart to move up.

How ever, watch for this range in blue, if sellers break this one, look at Joel Wissing last post on Gold to see what will be the next short target.

 

 

SI 05 14 240 Min 02 04 2014 300x196 Gold | Silver buyres zone but buyers are...gold trading 2

silver buyers in

For silver…is quite better…but hitting a triple tops on 240min charts.

With silver is more clear to see buyers in…one of the reason will be that, there’s nothing else to go lower, since we are hitting again the last bottom of all time at 19-20/oz price.Look for buyers breaking this triple top, and then it will be more secure to go long on silver.

 

 

 

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Gold | Silver buyres zone but buyers are…

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CL Buyers Trading | WTI Buyers Trading careful, resistance on the way

CL update after short move 300x196 CL Buyers Trading | WTI Buyers Trading careful, resistance on the wayday trading course 2

Cl day trading

CL Buyers Trading | WTI Buyers Trading careful, resistance on the way

Great short trade was few hours ago…fall again on past buyers support price at 100.00 . Looking for a decisive move by the end of this week. From sellers or from buyers.

so for this trade I will be 50/50 from both side. If sellers break 97.00 price a lower low trend will be made , but if buyers close in the green range, we can see a formation of Bullish trend. So watch for CL, good trades are coming.

 

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CL Buyers Trading | WTI Buyers Trading careful, resistance on the way

share save 171 16 CL Buyers Trading | WTI Buyers Trading careful, resistance on the wayday trading course 2

Well, my position on the S&P I put up yesterday waited a day too long to break up.  I closed the position yesterday for a small profit, and then today’s trading saw price move up through the 1869 area like I had predicted yesterday.   But enough about that, on to today’s trading.

OilEntryApr1.15min

Today I took advantage of a move on Crude Oil Futures.  I took on a short position shortly after the open with a nice break of support and definitely had the right timing on the move today.   Opening the short just over 101.00, price traded down through the short term support area of 100.00 to close the day in the 99.50 area.  (A good signal of likely continuing in the direction)

Crude OilEntryApr1.daily

On a daily chart price has moved to break below both the 50 and 200 day MA’s, as well as also crossed through the daily supporting trend line.  Currently my first target will be in the 98.50 area where the next supporting trend line is, with 97.50 as the next area to watch for.  As my stop is already in for a guaranteed gain on the account of 1%, I am free to let this trade develop with only profits to gain and nothing to lose.  I am watching the longer term chart as well for direction,  a close on the weekly candle below last weeks candle would also be a a great sign to stay short on oil for the longer term.  But we will have to see what the rest of the weeks holds first…

This week I am watching the Eur/Aud, GBP/USD, Eur/GBP, and USD/JPY and a possible reversal in the making on the USD/CHF after a long time in a bearish trend.  Only position I have on right now other than Crude is a very small one on the Eur/Aud.  Perhaps another article on it later.

Trade what you see, I’ll see you at the starting line!

In the last few weeks, I have not had much for positions to write about.  Mostly my trades have been on the short term, opened and closed within the day or maybe two.  With nothing in for longer term positions, I thought I would throw up my current day trade I am in from earlier today.

S&P500DayTradeEntry1hr

This morning I opened a long position on the S&P500.  The move up off of the open this morning showed some potential for continuing, so I took an entry in the direction on the first retracement on the hourly chart.

I expect this trade to be good for a few hours at least, then if we break resistance at the 1869.00 area, the trade could turn into a longer hold.  If resistance at 1869.00 seems to be holding, then I will likely take out the position at that level.

S&P 500 Daily

Daily outlook shows a possible target of 1880.00 with a break through current 1869.00 resistance today.

DAy Trading USD-CAD , last move down?

aud cad no mme trade 300x168 DAy Trading USD CAD , last move down?training

usd cad day trading

USD – CAD , Up or Down?

Another interesting trade to take long or short. Short if sellers show up at first. The “key” on this trade, is to use your stop wisely, because it can make a turn over at any time ( expecting 50%Ret. Fibonacci).

For long one, there’s few possibility, the simplest one, is to take long, as bearish trend will be broken, and next target will be 1.114price

 

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DAy Trading USD-CAD , last move down?

share save 171 16 DAy Trading USD CAD , last move down?training

Day Trading AUD – USD

aud usd short trade daily 300x156 Day Trading AUD   USDdaily chart sp 500 day trading course

day trading aud usd

Day trading aud – usd

Good trade to take for next week-61% Retracement on Fibonacci
-Top of Bullish trend , with an Over Bought price, that make this trade less risky to get first target.
-This is an quite risky trade, since buyers are quite strong, and pass 200MA. But there’s some space to get some good profits, and then go Long, once hit buyers zone.

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Day Trading AUD – USD

share save 171 16 Day Trading AUD   USDdaily chart sp 500 day trading course

Gold and Silver buyers get busted….Finally!

GC 04 14 240 Min 28 03 2014 300x156 Gold and Silver buyers get busted....Finally!gold trading 2

gold day trading

Buyers get Busted twice…as was expected

with two overbought level…and failing to hit the 1400price, sellers decide to take out the profits.

There are simple example of how they did, and finally we are back to my buying area.

 

GC 04 14 60 Min 28 03 2014 300x156 Gold and Silver buyers get busted....Finally!gold trading 2

gold trading 60min

Good buy price and Time

 

I maid this chart quickly but we clearly can see how sellers miss to pass the last bottom, and finish with few unsupported price.

gold price are also at the top of bearish trend, and if buyers break it, target will be the 200MA, at 1320points.

SI 05 14 1440 Min 28 03 2014 300x156 Gold and Silver buyers get busted....Finally!gold trading 2

silver price 22 to 19…again

Silver buyers get busted…again

this time it make me laugh actually, as I can imagine how exited they was in this strong move up…that end as a weak results.

Good thing about Silver, it’s buyers are starting to re-test 22-24 area. What is not nice…they will have a long road of test to break, till get to they 1st target at 30$/oz silver

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Gold and Silver buyers get busted….Finally!

share save 171 16 Gold and Silver buyers get busted....Finally!gold trading 2

…investor start to go against market

ES 06 14 240 Min 28 03 2014 300x156 ...investor start to go against marketeconomy

market are hard to bearish

 

Successful analyses futures market

Sellers still have the momentum, with buyers bouncing on 200MA, with low volume, I’m looking to see how sellers will re-test this 200ma on 240min chart.

how ever, don’t see much for next week….

 

look at volume ETF 300x210 ...investor start to go against marketeconomy ETF SPXU an invested ETF for S&P500 market

was impress how much it increase in volume, and not only on this etf but almost all those that go against bull market. Even gold Etf increase on last days.

and if you go on UPRO stocks ETF, volume stay at the same level that they was since October.

Does Investor losing confidence in Stock Market?

 

 

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…investor start to go against market

share save 171 16 ...investor start to go against marketeconomy

Trading WTI with MoneyMakerEdge

CL 05 14 60 Min 28 03 2014 300x156 Trading WTI with MoneyMakerEdgeday trading course 2

wti trading

WTI field the gap, what next?

It’s actually great question of what next… for my self, I see not much,than consolidation zone. 102.00 price, with Ukraine crises that was increasing in all media on last 2-3 weeks….since few last days, there was not much anymore to says. No war…and Putin looking to discus with Obama to fix this crisis.

On technical level, buyers was loosing power as they go in gap area, and finish with an unsupported price. Waiting for new signal…so far nothing

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Trading WTI with MoneyMakerEdge

share save 171 16 Trading WTI with MoneyMakerEdgeday trading course 2

Day trading the S&P500 and watching the perfect title wave.

SPY key levels of support 262x300 Perfect Title Wave forming in US Markets.technical trading patterns SPY the S&P500 ETF.

Is the tidal wave building that could be the next market turn?
The middle class is disappearing, we have record student loan debt, underemployment and U6 unemployment, housing market is stalling and
the Russell 2000 is trading at 83 times estimated 2014 earnings.
China, Russia, and the US relations are Chaos.
I am glad that I know how to short this market.

Here is the SPY which is the S&P500 ETF and the major support levels on the way down.

Knowing ways to make money in a down market is the key to capital preservation.
#trading
#daytrading

The pattern that could be building is the Head and shoulders. IF we go to the next level of support and then consolidate between these two support and resistance levels this would be giving us a very nice Head and Shoulders pattern.  Whether this plays out or not is the difficult question as this is a widely supported QE to infinity market – meaning the Fed will support the market.

Lots of volatility in between these moves.  Watch yourself.  If you aren’t experienced in these type of markets, it is best to stand a side.  Don’t ever risk your capital when you don’t have the experience to support it.

 

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Perfect Title Wave forming in US Markets.

share save 171 16 Perfect Title Wave forming in US Markets.technical trading patterns

I took out my Silver position yesterday.   I thought we could see a bit of a retracement on prices, however that has yet to happen.  Seems price has been happy starting out the week where it is.  Still a pretty good profit, looking at almost a 2% profit on the account with it in about a week.  Now on to the next one.

SilverClosed

 

The Nikkei trade got bumped out at a break even position unfortunately befor it continued up and closed what would have been my profit.  That too is a little unfortunate, however all part of the game.  Maybe you might have managed yours differently?

NIKKEI 225Update

Also, had a few day trades on here and there that didn’t pan out to pay too much.  Nabbed a couple small ones that added about a 0.5% profit after the tally.  But nothing very exciting there.

Right now I have no positions on and it looks like this week will give me a bit of a break as I get ready for my trip to Hong Kong and China next week.  Always watching, but nothing on the balance sheet at the moment.  I will update when a new trade comes.

Trade what you see…   I’ll see you at the starting line!

My GBP/JPY trade closed my target in trading yesterday.  This trade took about 9 days and paid about 10% compounded on the account.  Not bad for a couple weeks.

GBPJPYTargetFilled

Silver is currently stalled out at the $21.50 area after it’s initial break out above $20 resistance.  Still looking for it to continue to my $23.00 target.  Stop is in break even position, but I will tighten it up in the next day or two without another solid move up.

SilverDailyUpdate

I opened a long position on the Nikkei yesterday.  Today brought a nice move up after opening the position.  Current target is at 15000.

NIKKEI 225DailyEntry

I did have a position opened yesterday on the EUR/AUD which was stopped out in the overnight session.  To bad too, because today it would have went well into profit as well.  But as the saying goes, “You can’t win them all” and as always “There is ALWAYS another trade”.

More to come as the trades come to me…

I took on a Long position on Silver contracts 2 days ago.  Looking at the technicals it seemed like a good bet on a break through resistance.  Yesterday we saw that break as the market traded silver prices up through the $20.35 area of resistance.  Trading today has seen it continue to climb.

SilverEntryDaily

Entry came at $20.20 with my first target now at $23.00.  Stop is already in a break even position so this trade can now mature without any risk at all.  That essentially means that anything I make on this trade now is “free” money.

 

GBP/JPY trade is still in although it looks like it may be tiring out at the 50MA resistance.  Position is still on for now, but without a move up through the 50MA on this I will likely take the profit and look for the next entry.  So far this position is worth a bit better than 10% on the account in less than 2 weeks.    See my previous posts for trade details.

GBPJPYDailyUpdate

Since my last post I have only continued to hold my previous GBP/JPY trade.  I had a quick day trade on the S&P today, but took it out at slighly better than break even for a small profit because I didn’t feel I could see the direction on it well enough.

GBPJPYdailyEntry

The last couple days however the GBP/JPY trade has matured nicely.  I didn’t have a good clear opportunity to get in the additional position I talked about taking, but the initial trade has done very, very well.

GBPJPYdailyUpdate

Because it has kept it’s direction so well I have extended my target to add an additional 2% or so to it.  And I have introduced a nice 2.5% preventative stop on it as well to secure a good profit.  If it continues up this week I will let it play out, however as soon as it shows signs of slowing I plan on taking the profit on this trade.  As I write this, the trade at its current price will have made me about 8% on our accounts in just under a week.  Not bad by any standard.  Now begins the delicate dance of deciding between taking the profit and giving it more room to pay me if it should decide to.  I will update as the trade progresses.

At the current moment I don’t actually have a strong opinion on either side.  Instead I am waiting for a more pronounced decision from the market.  However, depending on what plays out over the next few days, I think it could be a great plan to be ready to make some money in either direction as soon as the market gives us a pointer to the direction it will choose.

The price level around the 1800 area of resistance points out a retracement from the last move down in the 61.8% Fib area.  Usually a good candidate for a possible reversal in direction.  Put together with the possibility of a right side shoulder forming at the 1810 area from previous trading and the 50 day MA being in that area as well and a test of that resistance with price failure could point to a great opportunity to short this market again.

S&P500retrace

Should price continue to trade up and keep its short term bullish direction, we could be looking at price retesting the 1830 and 1840 levels of resistance in the days/weeks to come.

What does your analysis tell you?  Either way I am watching for a possible trade to form, so I can add to my positions and take advantage of the moves to come.

Trade what you see and never listen to the so called “pro’s”.  If they are telling you to do something, it is most likely already too late.

Shortly after I posted last I had a good signal to take on a long position on the GBP/JPY.  I took it on at a price of 1.6530 and took on a risk of about 1.5% to my account.  So far I have seen this position gain about 2.5% but have locked it into a break even trade so far.

With no risk of any kind on this trade now, I am watching to see if it will break up through the current area of resistance at 169.60 and move to touch to the 50 day MA at 170.50.  If this move plays out, I will be looking at a gain of about 8% on this trade.

GBPJPYdailyEntry

If it loses momentum and does not continue then I will most likely take the profit at a 1-1.5% gain and call it a day.  I would like to add to this position, but with price at resistance I will wait for a better confirmation of direction before adding on.  That could come in the next few hours as this pair likes to move move in the overnigh as these currencies are based on European and Asian countries which trade more heavily in our overnight session.

More to come, stay tuned for more of my trades as I take them.

So for the past week or two I haven’t had much going on for trades.  I got out of the S&P500 short position a day early for a small gain because I didn’t feel I could see the direction clearly.  Too bad for me!

I had a long position in oil that I wrote about previously.  I closed that out at 98.00.  Then a few small day trades after that that netted a small loss. (Less than 1%) Right now I am watching for a possible reversal in crude oil, the S&P 500 and the GBP/JPY, Then as always I am watching the majors for possible trades.  No positions on at this point though.

I will keep you posted as I take on any new positions.

I took on 2 more positions today.  First a GBP/JPY long position at 171.26 and also a EUR/JPY long position at 141.32.   Both pairs looked as though they had seen enough downside for the moment and were ready for a move back to the upside.

GBPJPYentry4HR

These entries are showed on a 4hr chart.  We could be looking at about a 16 – 24hr move right now, however with the right move in the next 24hr they both have the potential to turn larger.

EURJPYentry4hrJan20

Current initial targets stand at 173.80 on the GBP/JPY and at 142.60 on the EUR/JPY.

 

These positions with my current trade on Crude Oil give me a total of 3 Long positions at the moment.  Also watching this week the EUR/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/AUD and GBP/CHF for possible positions to take.  At the moment I am still waiting to see a definite sign of direction before taking on any position.

Here I have both direction, after over buying oil, by creating head fake on 60min chart, ( blue area), market could go both way, Up and doing. This trade should be taking on real time trading, and would be hard to say now in what condition to buy or sell. But at least targets are clear, go back to Gap, and Filled. Or for short, retest 200MA, and then last bottom.

…but to be real, I think it will be a miss trade, due to the gap I’m looking to see after this weekend cause of politics games that are happening right now.

 

Post from: Day trading course – S&P 500 Day Trading Coach

Day Trading Oil when world Politics games are in a front pages of all news

share save 171 16 Day Trading Oil when world Politics games are in a front pages of all newseconomy

Gold trading has China Slow Down pressure

Gold is Tricky in the sense that it is a disaster/war hedge. Many people consider it a risk off investment, but actually it is too volatile for a risk off hedge in a trading account. Buying physical is for the dips in the market, and finding the Oversold areas of the market create great buying opportunities – in physical. The slow down in China could put physical gold back into the markets as margin calls, factory closings, increase Bankruptcy’s will start to increase.

Gold Daily Chart 300x147 Gold Trading has China slow down pressuregold trading 2
There is some support coming in also 1240 and 1200
With resistance at 1350 and 1395-1400

Post from: Day trading course – S&P 500 Day Trading Coach

Gold Trading has China slow down pressure

share save 171 16 Gold Trading has China slow down pressuregold trading 2

We were able to grab a great entry on oil yesterday.  We took on our position at 91.90 and saw oil trade to touch the 94.45 area today.  Stop is in at a positive position so now we can watch as things unfold with a guaranteed profit locked in.

Crude Oil_Entry1

Our target started out at 95.00 but has been extended to 96.00 after today’s trading.  looking fo price to test the 50 dayMA as the first step.  Then we will see where we go from there…

 

Our other positions were closed on the AUD/USD, Silver, EUR/AUD and GBP/JPY for a good profitt.  Looking at the S&P in this area for a possible turn.  I am only long crude at the moment.

Bought the morning dip on TQQQ Porshares Long 3xx QQQ Anatomy of the entry, risk and targets.

TQQQ the morning dip 211x300 Buying the morning dip ETF tradingstock trading 2
No risk on trade, as stop at 66 with a 65.80 entry, if it takes off great, if it comes back and gets me I will have chipped a little profit in on the day. I am on the sidelines mostly today as we had a large push up yesterday and Aunt Janet coming tomorrow to tell us how wonderful the markets are. So mostly looking for short term positions to pull some profit out of the markets in the interim.

We had ten cents per share risk on this entry, which is extremely small.  We have locked in .20 per share in the first 15 min and will let this one continue to our targets.

Our goal on this trade is to let it ride to 67.00 in the short term and break out to the highs in the longer term.

Buyers might move in here as a continuation off the bounce of support yesterday.

 

TQQQ Daily Chart 300x227 Buying the morning dip ETF tradingstock trading 2 On the daily chart for the TQQQ we have resistance coming in at 66.35 and a target of 67.50.

If we can stay in this for the overnight, we will be looking to take this to previous swing highs at 69.80

Stop is moved up to 66.30 locking in a profit and letting the market run now that it has direction.

A word of caution, Day trading is simple but it is not easy.  There is a lot of risk taking positions in a topping market.   This supported market has been running on FED gas money for quite a while.  We have a slight clue that it will continue as Yellen will not cut off the children’s candy (bankers).

 

Post from: Day trading course – S&P 500 Day Trading Coach

Buying the morning dip ETF trading

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United States Bonds fail to break Bear Market?

bonds monthly 300x243 United States Bonds fail to break Bear Marketday trading course 2

us bonds

Trading US Bonds in Bear trend

This is an chart of US bonds on FreeStockChart TYX–X 30y. Last months, market retest upper trend line, and fail to close above….like it did since years.

For next week, a new drop in price should start, by starting to close the gap at 35.00 , and then move to 33.00price area. this area will act as a support for bouncing and then look for new position to take.

 

bonds daily 300x243 United States Bonds fail to break Bear Marketday trading course 2

us bonds

Bonds on daily 30y

On this chart, we re-testing “red line” bottom, 4time already. and 3 time in a very short period. the only difference this time, it’s volume. They was quite big for last movement up(Thursday)

For next week, look closely if market will succeed to close under this red trend line. if it does, there’s few gaps to fill on the way.

Post from: Day trading course – S&P 500 Day Trading Coach

United States Bonds fail to break Bear Market

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Market Forecast | Day Trading | Swing Trading for | Stock | Forex | Bonds and more!

Hey guys, sorry for long video, got some issue with firefox as well with FreeStockCharts.com platform. However, this is a pretty accurate video of what you should expect and watch next week for.
With Dow Jones Industrial missing to hit double tops with low volumes. And looking to create an Inverter H&S pattern very soon, once it hit 18 000….thing can go both way.

Post from: Day trading course – S&P 500 Day Trading Coach

Market Forecast | Day Trading | Swing Trading for | Stock | Forex | Bonds and more!

share save 171 16 Market Forecast | Day Trading | Swing Trading for | Stock | Forex | Bonds and more!day trading course 2

We took a few positions on in the start of the year.  We had a few work and a few that didn’t, then last week we took on a couple that took and have started to run.

AUDUSD_2Entry

The AUD/USD took a nice bounce off of support in the 0.8860-70 range and provided a great entry.  We took on one position at the 0.8900 area and a second at the 0.8950.  Trading then saw the AUD/USD move to trade into the .9050 area so resistance today where we closed one of our positions to lock in a nice initial profit.  Then, so far, have left the second on to see what we get out of this move.  Daily resistance sees the 50 Day MA at this level so from here price could turn and begin a test back down, or with some momentum, could see moving into the 0.9100 or even the 0.9200 area in the remainder of this weeks trading.

AUDUSD_2Entry2

 

The Eur/AUD also provided us with a nice entry.  We took on a short position on this pair last week looking for a test back into support.  Price did move to test support today at the 1.5050 – 1.5100 area, with price at the moment trading in the 1,5120 area.  At the moment I am watching the shorter term charts for a test back toward the bottom and without new lows will consider closing this position.

EURAUD_DailyEURAUD_Daily2

Today I was able to grab an intra-day position on the S&P500 which I closed out at 1812.00, as well as a short position from last weeks trading on the GBP/JPY which I closed at 170.757.

 

This week I am looking at positions on a possible move up on Silver, as well as current EUR/AUD, AUD/USD. And possibly re-joining the nice turn we have seen on the S&P500.  Live positions at the moment include the AUD/USD and the EUR/AUD.   I am looking forward to see what these will Pay.  So far our managed account is off to a fantastic start seeing a 30% kick off to 2014.

 

Happy Trading!

Very bad for EU economy, but this is not us problem icon smile Day Trading Eur Usd Nice momentum for Long Directioneconomy Will keep update about Eur/USd for next move to expect and where get futures profits.

Have a nice Woman’s Day Everyone!

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Day Trading Eur Usd Nice momentum for Long Direction

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Having complained for years of China’s electronic espiohange, it is perhaps only fitting that, thanks to documents provided by Edward Snowden, the NY Times reports, the NSA pried its way into the servers in Huawei’s sealed headquarters in Shenzhen (Huawei connects a third of the world’s population). The NSA monitored communications of the company’s top executives in an operation called “ShotGiant” looking for links between Huawei and the People’s liberation Army. Furthermore, the NSA documents confirm, “we want to make sure that we know how to exploit these products,” it added, to “gain access to networks of interest” around the world. We await the repurcussions…

Via NYTimes,

While President Obama and China’s president, Xi Jinping, have begun talks about limiting the cyber conflict, it appears to be intensifying.

The N.S.A., for example, is tracking more than 20 Chinese hacking groups — more than half of them Chinese Army and Navy units — as they break into the networks of the United States government, companies including Google, and drone and nuclear-weapon part makers, according to a half-dozen current and former American officials.

If anything, they said, the pace has increased since the revelation last year that some of the most aggressive Chinese hacking originated at a People’s Liberation Army facility, Unit 61398, in Shanghai.

The Obama administration distinguishes between the hacking and corporate theft that the Chinese conduct against American companies to buttress their own state-run businesses, and the intelligence operations that the United States conducts against Chinese and other targets.

American officials have repeatedly said that the N.S.A. breaks into foreign networks only for legitimate national security purposes.

But even as the United States made a public case about the dangers of buying from Huawei, classified documents show that the National Security Agency was creating its own back doors — directly into Huawei’s networks.

One of the goals of the operation, code-named “Shotgiant,” was to find any links between Huawei and the People’s Liberation Army, one 2010 document made clear. But the plans went further: to exploit Huawei’s technology so that when the company sold equipment to other countries — including both allies and nations that avoid buying American products — the N.S.A. could roam through their computer and telephone networks to conduct surveillance and, if ordered by the president, offensive cyberoperations.

“Many of our targets communicate over Huawei-produced products,” the N.S.A. document said. “We want to make sure that we know how to exploit these products,” it added, to “gain access to networks of interest” around the world.

“If we can determine the company’s plans and intentions,” an analyst wrote, “we hope that this will lead us back to the plans and intentions of the PRC,” referring to the People’s Republic of China. The N.S.A. saw an additional opportunity: As Huawei invested in new technology and laid undersea cables to connect its $40 billion-a-year networking empire, the agency was interested in tunneling into key Chinese customers, including “high priority targets — Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kenya, Cuba.”

The N.S.A.’s operations against China do not stop at Huawei. Last year, the agency cracked two of China’s biggest cellphone networks, allowing it to track strategically important Chinese military units, according to an April 2013 document leaked by Mr. Snowden. Other major targets, the document said, are the locations where the Chinese leadership works. 

Read more here

Huawei’s view…

William Plummer, a senior Huawei executive in the United States, said the company had no idea it was an N.S.A. target, adding that in his personal opinion, “The irony is that exactly what they are doing to us is what they have always charged that the Chinese are doing through us.”

The US view…

China does more in terms of cyberespionage than all other countries put together,” said James A. Lewis, a computer security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“The question is no longer which industries China is hacking into,” he added. “It’s which industries they aren’t hacking into.”

Read more here

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Apparently China did not get the memo that the Fed’s apologists are furiously scrambling to packpedal on Yellen’s “6 month” guidance in virtually all media outlets. The is the only way to explain why Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao said overnight that “the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin boosting interest rates within six months after exiting “unconventional” monetary policy, and that will have a “significant impact” on the U.S. and world economy, as Market News International reported earlier. Zhu told China Development Forum this weekend “we believe a the Fed meeting this October, the exit of their quantiative easing will complete.” In other words while the spin for public and algo consumption is that the Fed will continue placating those long the stock market until everyone’s price target on the S&P 500 is hit and everyone can comfortably sell into an ever-present bid, China is already looking for the exits.

Understandably, Zhu Guangyao also indicated that China is uneasy about the impact of such a move. He should speak to the army of vacuum tubes which has no idea how to exist in a world in which the Fed isn’t injecting at least a few billions in reserves every month.

From Market News:

“The basic judgement, if there is no big accident, is that within six months after the Fed fully exits from its unconventional monetary policies, the Federal Reserve Bank will launch the process of raising interest rates and that will have a significant impact on the United States and the world economy as well,” he said.

“Based on the current progress, we believe at the Fed meeting this October, the exit of their quantitative easing will complete,” Zhu said at the China Development Forum at the weekend.

But Zhu’s comments — the most detailed from the top of the Chinese government since Yellen took over from Ben Bernanke last month — suggest that the authorities here are beginning to brace for an end to the extraordinary monetary accommodation of recent years. They come even as the Chinese government presses on with a sweeping reform program which has already plunged domestic financial markets into uncertainty.

The yuan fell sharply last week following the widening of the currency’s trading band to the U.S. dollar to 2% from 1% around the central parity. That was part of an ongoing move to deregulate the currency and interest rate regimes in order to better prepare the economy to handle swings in capital flows. The government also appears more willing to tolerate defaults as part of a long-delayed clean-up of the financial system.

But while the end of QE appears a given, at least until the market realizes there is no handover to an economy that is a moribund as it has ever been in the past five years, and the Fed has no choice but to  untaper and return with an “even more QE” vengeance (it certainly won’t be the first time – just recall the “end” of QE1, QE2, Op Twist, etc), a bigger question surrounds whether China, already sliding in credit contraction and suffering a plunging stock market with its housing sector also on the edge of a bubble bust, is about to take over from the Fed and proceed with its own stimulus program. The answer is no.

Bloomberg reports: “China used big fiscal stimulus in 2008 during the global financial crisis and this made the economy heat up quickly, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei says at a forum in Beijing, according to a transcript of his comments posted on Sina.com’s website.”

This year, however, China will focus on quality of growth this year according to Lou, which means no shotgun stimulus program. He added that China will pay more attention to the environment and won’t use  large-scale fiscal stimulus to spur investment in order to reduce overcapacity.

So with China caught in a deleveraging vortex, with the world used to Chinese “asset creation” in the range of $3.5 trillion each year, and with no endogenous credit creation to offset the phasing out of Fed QE, one wonders: will the next big surge in outside money come from the ECB, where outright QE is against the charter, or from the BOJ, where Abenomics has failed so miserably so far, that any additional surge in import food and energy prices may just lead to an outright recession. And it is in this context that we expect the stock “market” will surge to new all time highs again this coming week.

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MontgomeryScott's picture

Listen, Barry…

We’ve got a planned photo-op today. All you have to do is get in one of those carts, and drive it ten feet, to that nice man in the white pants. Do you think you can handle that?

I don’t get it, Valerie, um, I mean, Ms. Jarrett. How’s that gonna help my image?

It’ll make the world see that you’re not concerned, because you’re the King of the Universe. Besides, we don’t let you drive one of these very often… It’ll be a lot of FUN!

Gee, I don’t know. I’m kind of scared… that guy over there has a camera…

Now, now. The Wookie will be home soon, and everything will be better…

china-bubble

Well, my fellow Slope-a-Dopes, the time has finally come. The Idiot Savant has had more than enough.  BDI has unequivocally decided to prick Big Bad Ben Bernanke’s Bloviated Bubble Butt.  I have outlined below seven fine needles and six sharp scalpels that I shall use to slice and slay his sorry sagging ass:

1)  The extensive capital fight outflows, steaming out of the cratering Emerging Market economies, frightfully seeking a safe haven, have most certainly found their way into the U.S. equity markets, pumping the final bit of hot air into an already overly bullish bursting balloon.  Taper blow back begins.

2)  The Fed has finally begun tapering in earnest, fearfully curtailing QE because they know that the extreme asset valuations it engenders are dangerous weapons of mass misallocated monetary destruction.  The teetering global economy is now facing the unintended consequences of economic disequilibrium that the Fed has unwittingly unleashed on the world, which is now disintegrating before us.

2014-03-22_20473)  As a consequence of the announced and scheduled diminishing QE, the 10 year yield has most certainly based. Moreover, after a monumental 30 year down trend, is now clearly working its way higher.  Each marginal increase off of these extremely low levels is huge in terms of a percentage move, and thus, the total costs of servicing the outstanding debt loads held both privately and publicly will quickly become a backbreaking burden on the U.S. economy.

4)  The outstanding U.S. public and private debt has never been larger in terms of overall USD exposure, the debilitating cost of carry on that tremendous debt has only been temporarily held at bay by a shortsighted FED which synthetically suppressed treasury rates in order to bail out its desperate TBTF private member mega banks.  That dubious degenerate policy has completely distorted the treasury bond yields and therefore the natural market cost of money has been eviscerated.  Clearly, this can no longer be sustained due to the gross misallocation of capital it has induced, which flows primarily into fixed non producing assets of all kinds in the FIRE economy, as well as the precious metals, gem stones, fine arts and collectibles markets, at the expense of genuine productive growth on the ground in the real economy..

5)  The the polyannish assumption that the FED will be able to continue blissfully containing the ever building rate pressures by simply jawboning the debt markets is laughable. The Fed is about to lose control of the United States bond market, by far the largest capital market in the world.  Don’t be fooled, they are not and never have been an absolute omnipotent force with complete control of a private economy that generates an annual GDP of $16 trillion.  To believe that seven ace academic anal asses sitting in on an FOMC meeting, tweaking financial levers on a whim, can exert absolute control over the massive forces which drive the globe economy is preposterous.

China Corporate Debt to GDP6)  China, the acknowledged engine of economic growth for the world, over the past two decades, is apparently in serious trouble. The misallocation of overly cheap finance capital has created such tremendous economic imbalances on the ground, in terms of monumentally excessive development, productive over capacity with massive stock piles of raw materials ( all non cash producing assets), has now morphed into a full blown credit crisis spawned by the perilous parasitic shadow lending phenomenon which rapciously over leveraged the final ferocious funding feeding frenzy.

7)  Japan’s economy grew at a slower pace than initially thought in the last quarter of 2013, raising concerns about the pace of recovery under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s crazed crafty kamikaze monetary policies.  With Japanese data weaker than expected and their April consumption tax hike imminent, the state of the Japanese economy is cause for significant concern. Tora, Tora, Tora!

8)  Despite brash statements and confident claims to the contrary, the EU & ECB have yet to solve the crippling monetary and fiscal structural problems that currently afflict their unfinished and imperfect union, which are distinctly intractable in its current form.  The Southern periphery nation states, now joined by La belle France are firmly entrenched in permanent recessions.  The latest unemployment data out of Paris is the worst since WW II.

Brics summit leaders9) The BRICS, which remain heavily dependent on commodity trade are now struggling.  Dr. Copper has demonstrably diagnosed their incapacitating illness. Additionally, an increasing number of bi-lateral trade agreements are now being established between the commodity producing nations, completely outside of the USD world reserve currency monetary hegemony, putting added pressure on the Petro-Dollar. The current natural gas impasse in Ukraine and probable retaliatory sanctions against Russia will undoubtedly serve to push Beijing and Moscow even further along those lines.  The Arab Spring has morphed into MENA mayhem, Syria is bleeding, Lybia is imploding, Iraq is self destructing, Egypt is a basket case, Saudi Arabia is afraid of Iran fomenting further Sunni Shia anarchy along its borders.  All of which could undermine the Petro-Dollar.

10)  The USD Index has been trending lower, barely holding onto the all important 80 level.  A clear breach of that critical level will put undue pressure on an economy which is 70% based on consumer consumption.  Consuming cluttering crap created by countless countries will become considerably costlier.

11)  The developed world is in the midst of a substantial consumer slow down.  This is particularly true in the middle and low end mass market sectors, which are the meat and potatoes of the largest consumer economy on the planet. The recent results at Walmart & Target highlight this unwelcome development.  It’s not the weather stupid!

Goldman-Sachs-Twitter-IPO-prices-looks-promising112)  The freakish stock market sentiment boldly postulating that the wall street bull can never stumble again, because the global central bank reflation trade will always prop him up, is astoundingly foolhardy, you simply can not print your way to prosperity, same as it ever was.

13)  The fantastic social media gorilla glass gigabyte bubble will surely get the WhatsApp Snapchat Tweeter twits’ party started.  Please “Like” me, I’m a LinkedIn Pinterest head party animal!  In fact, the unsuspected unenlightened user-base unravelling may have already begun.  Friday’s bewitched Nasdaq action may be just the opening super social salvo.

6a014e60551070970c017d3d81aec6970c-800wi_yibaDi_m

 

The Joker red cards the Fed and its fantastically foolish frenetic faux market.

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Submitted by Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory

The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that you’ve got it made.

These are my principles, and if you don’t like them … well, I’ve got others.

I’m not crazy about reality, but it’s still the only place to get a decent meal.

A child of five could understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five.

Room service? Send up a larger room

“Surely You Can’t Be Serious”

In periods of great global stress, like after a World War or a Great Depression, it’s not only our politics and economics that are thrown for a loop, but also our art and entertainment. New art, and comedy in particular, that rejects or makes fun of the ancien regime after some enormous crisis is as old as Aristophanes. This art is subversive, often masking its contempt with “low comedy” like puns and slapstick, and no one in the past century was better at this than Groucho Marx. I’ve lately found myself thinking of Fed communications as a form of performance art … some sort of Dada-ist comedy routine where Groucho might stick his head out from behind a curtain and photobomb the press conference … and never more so than on Thursday . If only it were so.

Yellen’s press conference was a disaster. Why? Because she said too much. Because on the one hand she took away the insane linkage between monetary policy and the unemployment rate – an ill-conceived and counter-productive misreading of market game-playing that I wrote about ad nauseam last summer, here and here – but on the other hand she gave a specific timing target for raising rates after QE is all tapered out. Combine this with the three-times-in-a-row pattern of cutting monthly QE purchases by $10 billion per meeting, and now even Jon Hilsenrath is projecting specific calendar dates for raising rates.

I mean, you really can’t make this stuff up. Did the Fed learn nothing from last summer? This isn’t an academic exercise, where statements are qualified and softened by exhaustive footnotes and asides so that no one is ever wrong. The market is a beast, not the review committee for the Quarterly Journal of Economics. Of course the market is going to leap at and devour a statement like Yellen’s 6 months comment, and you’d think that the Fed Chair would know that.

All together now, one more time with feeling: ambiguity is good; transparency is bad. You might think that transparency would be helpful in “shaping market expectations” the way you like, but you would be wrong. That’s not how the game is played. Can I nominate Bill Belichick for the Fed, at least as far as press conferences are concerned?

And I’m very sympathetic to Kocherlakota’s dissent … if you ARE going to take a stand with an explicit linkage to unemployment rates, then you can’t just say “oh, never mind that” less than a year later and expect that whatever new standards you set out for rate-setting are going to be particularly effective in molding expectations. It’s not a matter of credibility, per se. That’s a very specific word with a very specific meaning in game theory, and the simple truth is that the Fed will always be credible enough to be an effective game player. The problem is actually that the Fed is too credible, and that Yellen’s remark about raising rates within 6 months of stopping QE3 takes on far more import than was intended.

Sigh. Look, maybe I’m over-reacting here. Maybe we are all so freaking exhausted by the constant use of communication as policy, by the unceasing effort of the Fed and its media intermediaries to play the market, by the Orwellian nature of a monetary policy apparatus where everything is spoken for effect, that we will all just go about our business and slog along. And I’m sure we will see lots of back-tracking over the next few weeks, lots of data-dependence talk, lots of “Yellen really didn’t say anything new”, yada yada yada. But my fear is that we’ve set the stage for, if not an inflection point in the path of the stock market, then another rate shock similar to but smaller than last summer’s … an aftershock, in geological terms.

What am I looking for to see how this plays out? I think we are now even more strongly in a good-news-is-bad-news (and vice-versa) world. If we start seeing some strong economic data come out over the next few weeks and months, then I think the market – particularly the bond market and emerging markets – could get pretty squirrelly. Not that US stocks would be immune from this. Remember, the modern day Goldilocks environment for stocks has nothing to do with a happy medium between growth and inflation, but everything to do with growth being weak enough to  keep an accommodative Fed in play. Strong growth data would augment a Common Knowledge structure that the Fed is on track to raise rates sooner and more rather than later and less, and that’s no fun for anyone. Then again, if global growth data remains weak – and you really can’t look at what’s coming out of China, Europe, or Japan and think that the global growth story is anything but weak – that creates enough uncertainty about the Fed’s path (not to mention the cover for political and economic Powers That Be to wage a full-scale media war to keep monetary policy in QE la-la land forever) to support the markets. Sounds a lot like Freedonia to me. Rufus T. Firefly for President?

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This is the last full week of what has been a surprising quarter. Among the largest surprises in the foreign exchange market has been the strength of the Japanese yen.  It begins the week up above 3% from the end of last year.  That the Canadian dollar is the weakest of the majors, off 5.3%, is somewhat surprising, but understandable given the shift in the central bank’s bias (forward guidance?) from neutral to dovish.  On the other hand, sterling is the second weakest.  Many did not expect that sterling would slip0.5%, despite the likelihood that the BOE is the first of the major central banks to hike rates (next year, likely before the UK election).

In the equity market, Japan also surprises, with the Nikkei off 12.7%.  This is among the worst Q1 equity performances among global stock markets. There are two markets that are down around the same magnitude, the Hong Kong Enterprise Index, which tracks Chinese companies listing on the Hang Seng, is off 12.8% while Russia’s MICEX is off 13.1%.

In the bond market, the rally in US Treasuries was unexpected. Under the weight of reduced Federal Reserve demand, Treasury yields were expected to have risen to find new clearing prices. Instead, going into the last week of the quarter, the US 10-year yield is off  about 15 bp.  This goes a long way toward explaining the decline in global yields.  Perhaps, though the magnitude of the decline in the peripheral bond yields is also surprising.  Yields in Italy and Spain continued to fall, with 10-year yields off 70-80 bp, while similar yields in Portugal and Greece fell 173 and 158 bp respectively.

We see ten events this week that investors will have to navigate.

1.  There has been no attempt (yet) by Fed officials to guide the market away from the implication of Yellen’s definition of “considerable period” that the first rate hike is possible in Q2 15. Like Yellen herself, there has been some attempt to downplay the “dot plot” of forecasts, but the Fed cannot have it both ways.  Either the “dot plot” is part of the Fed’s forward guidance/transparency or it is not.  Investors may be particularly sensitive to Fed officials comments on these issues in the days ahead.

2.  The longer the Fed waits, the more difficult its task.  The spring thaw is likely to produce somewhat better economic data, even though it was not the only headwind the economy faced. This will likely be evident with the bounce in durable goods orders for February, helped by Boeing orders and a rebound in the auto sector.   February personal consumption expenditures will be reported later in the week.  The remarkable thing is how steady US consumption has growth, and largely without credit cards.  The 3, 6, and 12-month averages converge at 0.3%, which is the February expectation, as well.  Economists may solidify Q1 GDP forecasts, which looks to be tracking around 1.6%-1.8%

3.  The Fed also draws attention at mid-week with the second part of the stress tests, which are essentially a review of the banks’ capital plans.  Between dividend payments and stock buyback programs, large US banks want to return $77 bln to shareholders this year. Embarrassingly, the Fed had to revise the results of the first part of the stress tests within 24 hours of the initial release, and the adjustment was mostly minor covering half of the thirty financial institutions it reviewed.   Nevertheless, the revisions underscore the focus on Bank of America. The revisions show its Tier 1 capital would fall below 6% under conditions of  a deep recession, which is still above the regulatory requirement, but the second lowest behind Zions Bancorp, the only institution to have failed the first round.

4.  This week’s flash PMI and money supply data from the euro area will shape expectations for the early April ECB meeting.  After the ECB let the March meeting go by without taking fresh action, many participants gave up on the idea entirely, and this helped the euro rise to approach $1.40 for the first time since July 2011.  What is expected to be the second consecutive decline in the manufacturing PMI is likely to underscore Draghi’s pointed remarks that the strength of the euro weighing on growth.  The service sector, which is less sensitive to the euro’s fluctuation, is expected to continue to hold up better.   Separately, money supply growth is expected to stabilize, but at 1.3% expected February print (up from 1.0% in December), it is hardly sufficient fuel for a stronger economic recovery.  Lending to households and businesses likely to continue to fall, though the pace may lessen a little, an outright improvement still seems some time off.  

5.  The economic highlight from the UK will be CPI and retail sales.    Headline CPI is expected to have slowed to 1.7% in February from 1.9% in January.  This would the lowest print since October 2009.  Few investors seem to appreciate the magnitude of the decline in UK inflation.  It was at 2.9% last June.  Retail sales in February, on the other hand, likely picked up after the out-sized 1.5% decline in January.  Sales are expected to have risen by 0.5%, including auto sales, and 0.3% without.  Nevertheless, the year-over-year pace is expected to moderate sharply to 2.4% from 4.3% including auto sales (2.9% from 4.8% without).  

6.  As Japan’s fiscal year winds down, Japanese inflation has stabilized; much as BOJ’s Kuroda had warned investors.  The February national CPI report is expected to show core inflation, which in Japan, excludes fresh food, unchanged at 1.3%.  Tokyo’s core inflation measure for March is expected to be unchanged at 0.9%.  The impression one is left with is that the bulk of the rise in Japanese inflation is due to the yen’s weakness, which, as we noted above, stabilized in Q1. The economic environment, arguably, will change again with the retail sales tax hike on April 1. The key policy issue now is how long will it take officials to determine the impact of the tax hike and respond if necessary. 

7.  HSBC’s flash manufacturing PMI for China will be released early in Beijing on March 24.  The consensus calls for a slight improvement to 48.7 from 48.5.  The real point is that it remains below the 50 boom/bust level.   The fact of the matter is that the Chinese economy has been slowing since 2011 (and the peak in the MSCI Emerging Market Equity Index around the same time is not simply coincidental).  It may slow more as the government tries to manage a squeezing out of some excess.  Officials we speak with seem cognizant of the risks.  Consider what China announced last week that may mitigate some of those risks.  It indicated it would expedite some already planned infrastructure projects.  This is seen to help support the economy.  It will allow some banks to issue preferred shares.  This permits another source of funding that can help ease bank’s reliance on short-term funding and loosen the reliance on shadow banking activity. Chinese officials also indicated easing some funding restrictions for property developers.  

8.  Pressure on the yuan may continue.   With the CNY6.20 level convincingly breached last week, which some reports had played up as a key level of speculative positioning, the next important chart point is seen in the CNY6.25-CNY6.26 area, which corresponds to the highs seen in December 2012 and February 2013.  Above there and the dollar could have potential toward CNY6.30-CNY6.35.   The yuan has weakened about 3.2%.  It is far too early to take some pundits claims of a new currency war seriously.  Moreover, the relatively low amount of value-added incurred in yuan related costs suggest such a small move will not impact trade flows.  The purpose of the squeeze is not meant to address China’s international competitiveness, but rather the moral hazard and excessive speculation, primarily by domestic economic agents.   That said; the yuan’s weakness must be included in any list of the surprises that have befuddled investors in Q1.  

9.  The threat by Kiev politicians to cut Crimea’s water and/or electricity off (Ukraine supplies Crimea with estimated 90% of its water and 80% of its electricity), is a dangerous provocation. Russia is amassing troops on the Ukrainian border.  No US president, going back to General Eisenhower directly used military force to try to repel Soviet or Russian forces.  It was not done in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, or more recently, Georgia.   The sanctions being implemented now are the strongest since the end of the Cold War.  There is scope for additional escalation, and there is little doubt that the “Russian issue” will dominate Obama’s trip to Europe and the G7 meeting. There may be a multiplier effect of sorts in terms of the sanctions as businesses may choose to refrain from dealing with Russian enterprises, especially state-owned or directed, as the case may be, for fear of additional sanctions.  We quickly suspected that lion’s share of the $105 bln drop Treasury holdings in the Federal Reserve’s custody holdings in the week ending March 12 was likely due to Russia shifting its reserve holdings out of the US for fear that the Crimean referendum and annexation could result in the US freezing those assets.  However, the $32 bln rise in custody holdings the following week, even with the settlement of US Treasury auctions is more mysterious. There is some suggestion that the reserves that were transferred out went to another central bank, who then used the Federal Reserve as a sub-custodian with a part of its new mandate. That said, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department know who is doing what.  

10.  While politics may always be local, this weekend’s French municipal elections (run-offs next weekend) may be looked upon for insight into the May EU parliamentary elections.  In this light, the success of a rejuvenated National Front will be watched very closely.  It is little wonder that the euro zone finance ministers pushed hard to reach an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism (at least three months late) with the current EU parliament is that an agreement with the next parliament may be more difficult.  If France is unwilling or unable to articulate and defend the interests of the debtors, the new EU parliament (and resulting new EU Commission) might be the check on Germany and the interests of the creditors.  From a local lens, this will be the first voter response to the Hollande government.  Even though the Socialists may manage to hold on to Paris, in a campaign that seemed to lack any meaningful substance, it is likely to get solidly trounced.  Hollande will likely respond with a cabinet reshuffle.   As Hollande tacks right, it will be interesting to watch what happens to Montebourg, the controversial industry minister:  keep him close as a bone to the left-base or replace him as an olive-branch to industry, which he has alienated.  

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Concurrently with out post on what the odds are of a war between the US and Russia over Ukraine, the House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, and war hawk, appeared on TV this morning saying that the United States ought to provide weapons to the Ukrainian army “so it could defend the country from a Russian invasion.” This is the same Mike Rogers who last August did everything in his power to perpetuate the lie that Syrians had used chemical weapons against “rebels” (who subsequently turned out to be mostly Qatari-funded Al Qaeda mercenaries and other Islamic extremists) “There are things that we can do that I think we’re not doing. I don’t think the rhetoric (from Obama administration officials) matches the reality on the ground,” he said.

Seemingly oblivious that all Russia desperately wants is further escalation in the conflict, which can then immediately be seen as a provocation for further incursions into either the Ukraine and/or other former Soviet counteries, Rogers said that, while ruling out the deployment of U.S. military forces in Ukraine, he called for sending small arms and radio equipment that the Ukrainian military could use to “protect and defend themselves. And I think that sends a very clear message.”

Absolutely it does: the message it sends is that US foreign policy has just hit rock bottom in terms of game theoretical escalation cluelessness. At least in Syria someone put some effort in fabricating YouTube videos and at least putting together a media campaign demonizing Assad. And still failed.

More from NBC:

Speaking from Tblisi, the capital of Georgia, a country that Russian forces invaded in 2008, Rogers said on NBC’s Meet the Press that the Ukrainians “passionately believe” that Russian President Vladimir Putin “will be on the move again in Ukraine, especially in the east.”

He said both Ukrainian and U.S. intelligence officials “believe that Putin is not done in Ukraine. It is very troubling. He has put all the military units he would need to move into Ukraine on its eastern border and is doing exercises.”

If Putin orders Russian forces into the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – which are NATO member states and which the United States is obligated by the NATO treaty to defend — then “we (will) have allowed people who want to be free, who want to be independent, who want to have self-determination, and we’ve turned our back and walked away from them.”

In an apparent allusion to the seizure of Czechoslovakia which was a prelude to Hitler’s invasion of Poland in 1939, Rogers added, “The world did that once – and it was a major catastrophe.”

The full clip:

And while US neocons are warmongering, Ukraine is all too happy to raise the tension level just a bit more, hoping that NATO will finally intervene and present Putin with at least some hurdle to overrunning all of East Ukraine, using exactly the same template as already show in Crimea. From WSJ:

Ukraine’s top diplomat warned Sunday that the chances of war with Russia “are growing” due to the buildup of Moscow’s forces along his country’s eastern border. In an interview with ABC’s “This Week,” acting Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia said Kiev “is ready to respond” should Russia–which has already seized the Crimea–move further in Ukrainian territory.

The situation is becoming even more explosive than it was a week ago,” Mr. Deshchytsia said.

He said Ukraine’s first approach to the Russian threat on the frontier would be diplomatic. But, he said, “people are also ready to defend their homeland.”

Meanwhile, Putin is sitting back in his chair and smiling, since everything so far continues to unwind precisely according to his plan.

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By James Robins Of The National Interest

Would America Go To War With Russia?

Vice President Biden was in Warsaw last week to reassure our eastern NATO allies that they have the support of a “steadfast ally.” But if Russia moved against Poland or the Baltic States, would the United States really go to war? Or would we do nothing and effectively destroy